  .     
  


      ()  .    , , , ,     .              .        .  ,                .     1930-  1970- ,     ,   .  ,   ,         .





 

  .     


  



  . ., 2016

   , 2016


* * *







               .        (  )    .

       ,                       .         1930-  1970- .,              .        -  (),        .              ()   1920- .      ,          1980-.

, ,              ,         ,       .     ,    ()      , -        .  ,      ,    .           .        , ,   ,    .

          .

     ,     ,     .

         .       ,          .

       1998. , ,  ,        -       .

     ,   2008 ,    1930-  1970- .

         .       ,      ,     .

         -    .

    , ,   ,       ,     .

          20 .     -  ,       (    ),    . . ,          .     ,    ,   . ,               .

  ,      ,        ,   (  )      .      ,         ,          ;                 ;        .

,             ,       ,     . ,    .      .

    ,           .             (      ),     . .  (     ),         . ,             .

  ,     25             .           .  . . , . . , . . , . . , . . , . . , . . , . . , . . , . . , . . , . . , . . -, . . , . . , . . , . . , . . , . . , . . .

  . . ,            .      ,       .

         . .   . . ,        .






     


      ?

 II,   (2008)




 


       ,    - .

            ,     ,      .

             .        ,   300  .        II:       ?[1 - Pierce A. The Queen asks why no one saw the credit crunch coming. The Telegraph, 2008, November 5.]        .      ,      .

      .    60      1930-   1980- .               .    ,     .     ,   ,  ,     (   ,           ..),        [2 - Ofer G. Soviet Economic Growth (19281985) //Journal of Economic Literature. Vol. XXV. 1987. No. 4.].          ,              ,      19801990-.

,     .          .     ,                      .             :  (     ,    ), , ,  ,  ,     .     ,          .

    1980- .    ,      .        ,       25 :

  ,       -   .      , ,      ,       ,  ,         [3 - Skocpol Th. States and social revolutions. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1979; Tilly Ch. European Revolutions, 14921992. Oxford: Blackwell, 1993;  . .,  . .  .    . .: , 2001.].

  ()                  (   )  .       [4 -       ,       . .    ,  5060-  ( . .    //  . . 1. . 1. ., 1925).      ,                  ,           .].

  () ,      ,   ,      XIXXX.

  , ,   ,     ,  ( ),  .            .  ,         .

   ,    ,    ,     ,      .

              . ,         . ,        ,      .     .             .           ,    ,     .

      ,       .         25-      ,     :  1990- .   ,   2008.         .




 1990-


      ,        .             ,     ,         .

  1980- .      ,      .             1990-.       ,             , ,       .

-,      .           ,       1970- .            ,      ,    [5 -            . ., : Bauman Z. A Post-Modern Revolution? // From a One-Party State to Democracy. Amsterdam: Rodopi, 1997; Rosser J. B., Rosser M. V. Schumpeterian evolutionary dynamics and the collapse of Soviet-block socialism // Review of Political Economy. Vol. 9. No. 2. 1997. P. 211223.].

  1990- .         .           ,               ,      (. . .1).      ,  [6 -  1990- .     700  ,   ,  800    .     1999. 46%,   2000. 37,7.        ,  7080 . ,      .].



 .1.   -  (1991. =100%,    )











          .     ,       .

-,        .          .      -   .         25 ,     :       -  ,     ,     , .

-,      ( ) ,        (    1980- .),      ,       .        ,     ,   . ,               .  19401980- .       ,    ,           ( 19221923.).

, -, ,    ,       19801990- .,         .  ,     ,     ,      [7 -     . :  . .,  . .  .    . . 313317.].           ,    ,  ,      .  ,          ,       ,      .       ,   ,           .

 ,    1990- .      .       - ,           .             .             .

       ,       .

         1991.   ,       .    1992.,   ,      ,           .

    ()  1998.,      . ,          80%,            .

  1990- .  ,   ,     .

     .     ( 10 ),      .         (,    ),        .     1998.      .

 2000.      .    ,       .        1999. ,            [8 -    1999.:   . . 21. .: , 2000. . 313319.].    ,        . ,                (     );             (         );      ;

          . ,      ,        ,      .         -    .

 ,   2000- .         .      :   ,      ,          [9 -  ,      ,          ,         .  ( . .       // . 1922. 13;  .   //  . 1926. 2;  . . .: , 1990).      . .      л                      ( . .      //  . . . . 16. .: , 1997).].   1990- .       .

,          .            ,        .             .

,  -             -   .      ,         .




 : 2008?


           ,   .  20002008.    ,       .      7%.

             .         (        )        .  ,      20002003.,   .            .      (    ,   ,   ,  )  - ,  ,             ,         ,   .

     ( )             . 1930-  1970- .[10 -  .  :      //  . 2009. 4.]    ,    -  (,     ),   ,    - , ,  ,   - .

     .         (  ) ,                  .

,      .   , .. ,      ,      .        ,       , ..       ,   ,            .

   ,   .

-,        ,    .            .                  .            ,     .    ,   1970- .    .                   - . ,         ,       ,      .

-,      .

-,         .       , ..     (      ).                   .

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-,    :     (   ).   .      ,  ,  1970- .     .        , , ,       .

-,       10- ,      .  ,   ,       ,             ,                     .     (         ),    ,    .

-,             .   ,      ,        .          , ..      ,            ,      .  ,   exit strategy        ,        .

  ,  ,       .    ,     ,    ,       .       ,      .  ,      .

         .

  ,      (20082009.),        . -     , - ,    .

,           ,       .                   .     (     2012.,   2014.,    )     .      - ,      :      2009.       .

          .            .  ,     ,    ,       .

   (20102013.),  ,  , ,            ,   business as usual.  ,           20002008.,    .

,         ,        20112012.    -2020[11 - -2020:       : 2- . / . . , . . .: , 2013.].

    2013.,    .    XXI. (  2009.)      .      :          ,    (   ,    ),       .

    2015.          ,     (       )[12 -     ,          20142015.    :      2000 .;   ;        ,     ;        ;        (     ,     );  ,     ;          ( . -    2014 :    ? //  . 2015. 2).].           .         ,      ,     .

 ,      ,                .        2008.,       .     2009.               .   2012.            [13 -            .  :         ,       ,    .         .              (The World Bank. Con?dence crisis exposes economic weakness. Russian Economic Report. 2014. No. 31. . 5).].  ,    ,   ,  ,           .




I

  


    ,     ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,     ,      ,     ,     , ,   ,    ,         ,                    .

 .     (1859)




 1

 :   




          ,          .          :      .           ,    .          .

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 ,   ,    . , ,   .     ,                  ,         (     ) .       ,   .   ,   ,      ?      ,       .      ,             .      -  (    , ,  )     ,      .

    , , .              ( ,     ).     .     ,  ,    [14 -     . . .: Goldstone J. A. Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World. Berkley and Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1991. P. 296.].                    .       ,  ,  ,    .      .

     .            .          ,    ,   .         ,    .    ,       ,       .    .       (    )         . ,   .

       .   , , ,     .      ,    .       ( )  XVII .     , ,       ,        .                 .  , ,   ,          ,     ,               .      ,             ,       .

      . , ,   ,     ,   .      . ,   ,   (   )    ,      . ,                    .   XIXXX.            ,   .               1980- .  -   ,     ,          [15 - C.:  .     . .: ; , 2010.]. ,              .

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      . (  ,     )   , ,              - ,     .           .   ,    I       ,       50     ,    .

  XIXXX.       .       ,             .  II     ,    (    )   : , , ,  .        ,    1890- . 10%.

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        .        . . , . .   . .                    20 .                   .



 1.1.         ( . , 1990.)






   ,        .  ,      XVII.,   XVIII.,   XIX.,     XX.   ,  ,      ,     -   . . 1.1    ,    ,      .    .

  XIXXX. . .         .   ,  ,   ,  ,   ,           [17 -  . .    .    .  1900. //  . .     . . 4. . 1. .: , 2006. . 321.].

          ,            .        ,                  [18 -  . . 323.].     ,          ,             :            - ,          ,       -,           ,      ,         -                [19 -  . . 326.].

 1917.    .     .                . ,     ,   .   ,                         (   ,   [20 -  . . . . 13. . 29.]).   ,      .   ,  ,                        .         ,     ,    ,  ,    ,    .

        ,       ,     XIXXX.:    ,  ,   .    ,    ,       .  ,        1913. .     , ,  ,      . ,       ,          .       .


* * *

        ,   ,  , ,   .  , -,     ,    ; -,   () ; -,   ; -,     .         ,      .             ,             ,      [21 -      .:  . .,  . .  .    . .: , 2001.].

      25                  .         ,       .      [22 - Brinton . The Anatomy of Revolution. N.Y.: Vintage Books, 1965.],   1930- .    , ,    () ,    (-   1980- .)     ,        .  [23 -       :   (  ),         ,        ; ,  - ,     ;  ,           ;  (      ),        ;      .],   ,                 . , ,   .          ,    .

                       .          . :     ,       .          ,           XIX. :     ,          , ,    [24 - .:  .    . .:   , 1997.].  , , , ,          [25 -  .:  .  : , , . .: .    , 2010.].

,   ,     .         ,                , 腻.             .  :   ,  -          .           ,       .

           ,     .           ,    -     .        ,         ,     ,      .        ,    .

         .    , ,       ,       .           ,    ,          ,     .   , ,       .         ,               ,    .    ()   ()    - ,         .     ,                  .

         :       .     ,  ,  .        ,           [26 - ,        .            酻 ( .-.,  .    . .: , 2000. . 8993).].      1850- .      [27 -    .: Crouzet F. Britain Ascendant: Comparative Studies in Franco-British Economic History. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990; Idem. France // The Industrial Revolution in National Context: Europe and the USA. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996.].             ,    ()     .             ,   ,   ,    :                  ,              .




  


   ,   ,         .    ,              . -,     ,      ,          . -,          , ..  ,      . , -,        ,            .        ,     .       ,      ,      [28 -  . ,     . .:    , 1997. . 92.].  -      ,         .

           ,   ,      ,        ,    . ,             .

       .                       (law enforcement).             .           (  ,      ),       ,       .

       ,        .          ,          .

            ,        ,    .           .   ,    ,        , ,            .   ,   -              XVIII. (  ).

       .

-,              .         ,      ,        ,       17891791.,    ,    ,       19901991. ,            . ,                (   1993.  19951996.),              .

-,     .         ,  -   .     ,     .           ,       . , ,       (        ), ,  ,  (   )                 .           (  ),        (  5   19851997.).     .

-,                   .                (  ),     (.. )      .        1998.,      .  ,         ,        .

-,         .       ,     ,     ,            (                ).      ,   40% .                ( ),      (  ,     ),     .

         -    ,  , ,   ,    ,   :           ,            .  ,                (  ,    )    ,        - .           , , ,      [29 - ,      . .            ,      :                  ,   ,        .             ,    . (.:  .     . .: , 1993. . 205, 216, 239245.)]. ,     ,        .

        [30 - ., .:  . .     (17891797). .: . .  , 1919;  . .     . .: , 1983; Aftalion F. The French Revolution: An Economic Interpretation. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990.].   ,    ,  .     :    ,       .     ,          ( - ).  ,        :         ,     ,        (  ),         .

        ,       (     )     .          . ,       ,    ,     ,            .         ,     .

         1990- .:    ,               ,   .

          -   .      , ,  ,          ,  ,    .        ,      (     XVII  XVIII.  XX )  .                 .           :    (          )      .

            ,     ,   ,      .     .                  .       ,        . ,         .


* * *

,         .    ,                       .               .        ,        .       - .

                .               [31 -    1989.    .          . .: Dunn J. Modern Revolutions. 2nd d. Cambridge and N.Y.: Cambridge University Press, 1989. P. 22.].                .        (      )        ,  ,    .

  ,     8090- . XX.     .  ,       ,                 ,      .             .        ,         .           .




 2

 :   




     -                .             ,     ,    ,    .

         ,         1990- . ,  -,   [32 - Fisher S., Sahay R., Vegh . A. Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies. The Early Experience //Journal of Economic Perspectives. 1996. Vol. 10. No. 2; ?slund A. Building Capitalism. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002.].  ,       ,  ,     ,       ,    .      ,          .

             , ,    .       - ,          .  -     ,       .

    - ,            .

-,      ,          .     , ..         ,           .            ()  , ,   ,         [33 - Huntington S. P. The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century. Norman and London: University of Oklahoma Press, 1991.].

-,   ,      ,   ,   ..             ,           -    [34 - Institutions and Economic Development / C. Clague (ed.). Baltimore and London: The John Hopkins University Press, 1997; Transforming Post-Communist Political Economies /J. M. Nelson, Ch. Tilly, L. Walker (eds.). Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1997.].

, -,        ,             .   ,       1980-   1990- .     -   ,         [35 -     .:  . ., May . .  .    . .: , 2001.].

 ,          .




 


     ,    . ,            .

         .   ,        . -,    ,           ,        -  . -,    ,       . -,    ,        ,      ,          ,     . -,  -     ,         . , -,    ,         .

             .      ,   ()       1993. (      ),           .

,        ,       ,     .            ,   [36 -      ,              (  ),       .   ,             ,      .        , , . ,        ,   . (.:  .     . .: -, 2004).     ,          ,   , , .].

 -    19801990- .  .                 .             ,         57     1985, 1991  1998.         .

       .     ,       (   )         ,     [37 - May . ,      (    ) //  . 1997. 2.]




  .


   .

   ,     (https://www.litres.ru/vladimir-mau/krizisy-i-uroki-ekonomika-rossii-v-epohu-turbulentnosti/)  .

      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .



notes








1


Pierce A. The Queen asks why no one saw the credit crunch coming. The Telegraph, 2008, November 5.




2


Ofer G. Soviet Economic Growth (19281985) //Journal of Economic Literature. Vol. XXV. 1987. No. 4.




3


Skocpol Th. States and social revolutions. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1979; Tilly Ch. European Revolutions, 14921992. Oxford: Blackwell, 1993;  . .,  . .  .    . .: , 2001.




4


      ,       . .    ,  5060-  ( . .    //  . . 1. . 1. ., 1925).      ,                  ,           .




5


           . ., : Bauman Z. A Post-Modern Revolution? // From a One-Party State to Democracy. Amsterdam: Rodopi, 1997; Rosser J. B., Rosser M. V. Schumpeterian evolutionary dynamics and the collapse of Soviet-block socialism // Review of Political Economy. Vol. 9. No. 2. 1997. P. 211223.




6


 1990- .     700  ,   ,  800    .     1999. 46%,   2000. 37,7.        ,  7080 . ,      .




7


    . :  . .,  . .  .    . . 313317.




8


   1999.:   . . 21. .: , 2000. . 313319.




9


 ,      ,          ,         .  ( . .       // . 1922. 13;  .   //  . 1926. 2;  . . .: , 1990).      . .      л                      ( . .      //  . . . . 16. .: , 1997).




10


 .  :      //  . 2009. 4.




11


-2020:       : 2- . / . . , . . .: , 2013.




12


    ,          20142015.    :      2000 .;   ;        ,     ;        ;        (     ,     );  ,     ;          ( . -    2014 :    ? //  . 2015. 2).




13


           .  :         ,       ,    .         .              (The World Bank. Con?dence crisis exposes economic weakness. Russian Economic Report. 2014. No. 31. . 5).




14


    . . .: Goldstone J. A. Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World. Berkley and Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1991. P. 296.




15


C.:  .     . .: ; , 2010.




16


           .  ( .     . .: , 2015).




17


 . .    .    .  1900. //  . .     . . 4. . 1. .: , 2006. . 321.




18


 . . 323.




19


 . . 326.




20


 . . . . 13. . 29.




21


     .:  . .,  . .  .    . .: , 2001.




22


Brinton . The Anatomy of Revolution. N.Y.: Vintage Books, 1965.




23


      :   (  ),         ,        ; ,  - ,     ;  ,           ;  (      ),        ;      .




24


.:  .    . .:   , 1997.




25


 .:  .  : , , . .: .    , 2010.




26


,        .            酻 ( .-.,  .    . .: , 2000. . 8993).




27


   .: Crouzet F. Britain Ascendant: Comparative Studies in Franco-British Economic History. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990; Idem. France // The Industrial Revolution in National Context: Europe and the USA. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996.




28


 . ,     . .:    , 1997. . 92.




29


,      . .            ,      :                  ,   ,        .             ,    . (.:  .     . .: , 1993. . 205, 216, 239245.)




30


., .:  . .     (17891797). .: . .  , 1919;  . .     . .: , 1983; Aftalion F. The French Revolution: An Economic Interpretation. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990.




31


   1989.    .          . .: Dunn J. Modern Revolutions. 2nd d. Cambridge and N.Y.: Cambridge University Press, 1989. P. 22.




32


Fisher S., Sahay R., Vegh . A. Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies. The Early Experience //Journal of Economic Perspectives. 1996. Vol. 10. No. 2; ?slund A. Building Capitalism. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002.




33


Huntington S. P. The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century. Norman and London: University of Oklahoma Press, 1991.




34


Institutions and Economic Development / C. Clague (ed.). Baltimore and London: The John Hopkins University Press, 1997; Transforming Post-Communist Political Economies /J. M. Nelson, Ch. Tilly, L. Walker (eds.). Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1997.




35


    .:  . ., May . .  .    . .: , 2001.




36


     ,              (  ),       .   ,             ,      .        , , . ,        ,   . (.:  .     . .: -, 2004).     ,          ,   , , .




37


May . ,      (    ) //  . 1997. 2.


