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 Massachusetts I nstitute of T echnology, 2004

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  45-     ,    -  .       ,       .     MIT Press     ,          .             MIT Press.

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    ,    ,       ,      . ,    Dallas Morning News  Universal Press Syndicate  ,         ,     .

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     ,    .  ,             ,             1920.     ,     ࠖ         .

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            1970- .                   ,        .          .

 ,                     (   ),      . ,  , ,   ,      -       蠖             51-  ,           .   ,  4,5   11-   ,   ? ,        ,   ,     2004.

     .    ,          ,      .       .      , , , 젖 .   ,             ,                .      .   , ,  ,        ,       ,         .   51  .  .        ,      ?           ,       ,                     .         Medicare  Medicaid        .       .          ,      ;      ,  Microsoft  Berkshire Hathaway;   ,      .

  2000.       Medicare   2,6  ,    ,   .               .              Medicare       ,    .         .      .   ,   Medicare   ,    ,    4,6%       ,    2014.   57%!     Medicaid   .

            ,      .         ,     77 -,            .            .          .  ,               ,      ,       .         ,             .

   .    -        2008.,    Medicaid  2012.  -      .         ,      .       2004.  ,     2005.        147 .   .  1,6 .   ,    .  ,      !

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    ,   ,               .             .        ,   -[1 -  -⠖ ,   1946  1964.       78 ,     (19461954)   (19551964) -. . .]   .             .

     ,   ,     :    .     ,   ,  600. [2 - John W. Rowe and Robert L. Kahn, Successful Aging (New York: Dell), 1999, p. 6.     . ,            ,     2050.   473 400,   堖  3 218 900 .].     ,    .

  ,  ,  ,   (567. ),   ,   - (735. ),        ,  (165. ),         ,  (110. ), ,  (222. ), , - (105. ), ,  (113. )  ,  (105. ).          100. ,   18   ,     [3 - U.S. Department of Commerce, Statistical Abstracts of the United States (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government printing Office, 1997), table 46.].

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 1.1. :   ,   




: www.infoplease.com/ipa/a0110384.html



 1950-1960- .    5     .       11% ,  堖  9%[4 - Population Distribution by Age, Race, Nativity, and Sex Ratio, www. infoplease.com/ipa/A0110384.html.].    ࠖ        1920- .         ,   ,        ,   ,     [5 - Population Reference Bureau, U.S. Fertility Trends: Boom and Bust and Leveling Off, www.prb.org.].    76   1900.  1950. ,   151 . ,          .      : 286.     300 ,      1970- .  .   ,   2006.   300.[6 - Old Age, Survivors and Disability Insurance, Assumptions and Methods Underlying Actuarial Estimates, 2002, www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/TRO2/V_demographic.html.]

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  2000.   35,5    65   ,   2030.   69,4.           ,  65   ,      20  64    21,1  35,5%.    .

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: www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/TR02/V_demographic.html.



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        ,  -   .   :            ,     . -    , -      ,   , ,  .

            .  ,   ,    .  1928., ,   ,         65 ,      ,        .    ,           .

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 1.4.   , 頖  




: Bureau of Census, Current Population Report, P25-1130.

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 ,      ,       頖       .   ,    ,    .         13,5   85 ,   ,    ,  16,8.   ,  23,5[11 - Kevin Kinsella and Victoria A. Velkoff, An Aging World: 2001, in Life Expectancy and Changing Mortality, p. 31 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Census Bureau, November 2001). www.census.gov/prod/200lpubs/95-01-1.pdf.].

                  . ,    1985  1995.        70  74    6%,     80  84   8%.

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 ,            ,         .   ,    (       Medicare),    ,     .        .  1995.    ,   18 ,  1693 .,         15 636 .,          65   .

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 1960.          .       .

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         ,   .  1840.   ,      45 .      ,       XIX        52 .

      ( ),    67      1940.       ,      ,    ,    1980- .,     80 .

 -,    ,   . ,   1947.,     54  .         68,4 .   1970.      75,7 .

   ,     .  1980.             2000.    84,6 .

     .   2002.,           2001.,      84,93 .     , ,    .           .   ,      78 ,     4,2 .

 ,    ,        ,       .          :        , ,   ,         .

 Economist    ,              1995  2000.[14 - Economist, Pocket World in Figures (New York: Wiley, 1999), pp. 70-71.]      (80 ),  頖  (79,3 ), 堖  (78,9 ),   (78,8 )   (78,8 )   .

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                , , ,   ,              65 .      ,      .  1970.    ,   65 ,     ,  .      12,5 ,     13,1 . , ,    15,3 ,  蠖 17 .             14,6   14,1   .       17,7   18,3.  1998.   .      17,1 ,  堖  16 , , ,  22 ,  蠖  19,2 .

     :   ,       ,      ,   ?      ?

  ,         85   2070.,      69 .       ,   ,  2040.,       39 .     65-       2055.  65-           2020.

  ,          ,     .       ,          2,5   ,      150 .   2030.     -   92 ,   2060.  100 .

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notes









1


 -⠖ ,   1946  1964.       78 ,     (19461954)   (19551964) -. . .




2


John W. Rowe and Robert L. Kahn, Successful Aging (New York: Dell), 1999, p. 6.     . ,            ,     2050.   473 400,   堖  3 218 900 .




3


U.S. Department of Commerce, Statistical Abstracts of the United States (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government printing Office, 1997), table 46.




4


Population Distribution by Age, Race, Nativity, and Sex Ratio, www. infoplease.com/ipa/A0110384.html.




5


Population Reference Bureau, U.S. Fertility Trends: Boom and Bust and Leveling Off, www.prb.org.




6


Old Age, Survivors and Disability Insurance, Assumptions and Methods Underlying Actuarial Estimates, 2002, www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/TRO2/V_demographic.html.




7


Social Security     ;       1935. (Social Security Act).       ,     ,    :    ,       (Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance, OASDI          ,     ); Medicare     .         (Supplemental Security Income),       .      , , ,          ,   ,     .           ,      ;       .        ,   65 .   62-       .       65   71        .   72-       . . . .




8


Medicare ()         65   ,    1965.       .    ,   ,   . . . .




9


     ,    ,   3%  1950.  15,3%  2000.




10


Jim Oeppen and Victoria W. Vaupel, Broken Limits to Life Expectancy, Science, May 10, 2002.




11


Kevin Kinsella and Victoria A. Velkoff, An Aging World: 2001, in Life Expectancy and Changing Mortality, p. 31 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Census Bureau, November 2001). www.census.gov/prod/200lpubs/95-01-1.pdf.




12


Medicaid ()    ,         .          ,               .      - 1960.   1965.          . . . .




13


Thomas . Perls, The Oldest Old, Scientific American, January 1995, pp. 70-75.




14


Economist, Pocket World in Figures (New York: Wiley, 1999), pp. 70-71.


