        ,   
 


     .  ,    ,   .     : 70%     .   ,       .         ,         .





 

        ,   



   Future Fintech

  

   

  

  . 

  . 

 . , . 

  . 

- . 



Tony Saldanha, 2019

First published by Berrett-Koehler Publishers, Inc., San Francisco, CA, USA.

All rights reserved.

   , , .   , 2021



  .           () .  ,  ,   ,  ,   ,          .  ,   ,     ,  ,          ,      ,   ,       .

,      ,  ,   ,        () ,        ,    .


?


  (@saldanhaclan) , , ,   堖     

  .

  









,   :    CNN     ,         ,             ?  .

    Procter & Gamble     1991,       .         1935     .    ,       ,  - .        (  7000)       .        ,   .        ,       .          젖     頖  :   ,      .

  ,      .         -    IBM System/360.     -,          ,             -  (   Honeywell). ,    Procter & Gamble,     :     Fortune 50,     .               Global Intelligence for the CIO  ? 2012.      McKinsey & Company            .  ,     P&G      ,                ,    ( ,  ),  ,  ,   ,   .      ,      .

  ,   19801990-    Procter & Gamble  ,      .    ,     Tide,     ,    ,    ,       ,   ,  ,       .        ,      .    ,        . ,     .     ,    ,   ,    ,  .           .         .

       ⠖           ,       :      .   ,    ,     :        ,        ( )      .      ,         ,      ,     1985    MS-DOS:     !  ,     185    ,   렖    ,       -  1972.   ,       Johnson & Johnson  Dell,            .      ,    -  ⠖     ,          .

        .              ⠖  ,             ,          ,    P&G     .    ,    ,      ,              ,         [1 -        (. time-based competition).           ,         . . .].    蠖 , ,   젖                  .               , ,  ,         Walmart   .     P&G,                .

        .     ,    -,   ,  .      ,        ,         70% -,      ,        .



 ,
   ,      Procter & Gamble;      







-  2015    ,       Procter & Gamble,  -,      .         .    ,      :    -  ,            .          ,                .

            Global Business Services (GBS)[2 - ,     P&G   ,  ,       . . .],     ,      ,   .    :          ,    .

     ,    ,  ,     ,     .   ,   ,   ,  ,   -         .  ,        ,      .   ,    ,     ,    젖   ?

,    ,    ,        .     : ,    ,     ,     -    .    ,       , ,          .    蠖 Sears (  ), Macys (         ), Neiman Marcus (   )[3 -   2020  Neiman Marcus   . . .], Tiffany  Harley-Davidson       .   , , ,          ,  ,       .

  ,   堖  ,      ,        .

   P&G                      .     P&G                  ,     P&G   Gillette  10  (       Gillette[4 -  2005 Procter & Gamble     Gillette. . .]).       :            ,   ,       .

       - ,         , , ,     .          頖  ,  ,  , ,     ,  , -   .    ,   ,       P&G,   -  . -,     ,   ,      ,         ,   . -, ,     70%       . , -,        . ,     ,      頖 - (  ,     ,   ,     ,       ).         .

      , ,  ;      ,  ,       ;   ,                ,  ,   ,    ;    ,            , ,    .

   2015          蠖    P&G  ,    ,  , ,    .  !  .   . ? ?    ,   . ,   .




   


   ,           ,     .         ,          .  ,       ,    -     .

        .  I  :   ,       Global Business Services     ,              -,      .    II       .           ,    .  ,  III ,           ,       .

     ,    , ,    ,       .         ⠖ -         . ,    .        .        www.tonysaldanha.com (http://www.tonysaldanha.com/),     ,   ,     .




 I

           





 1

     



   !     ,        Macys      .    ,      ,    .                    , ,      ,       ,    . ,  .    ? ,          .     ,   ,  : .  .  .      ,        ,    ,   ,      .

           , .           ,      .          .             Macys.  ,    . Ƞ   -    ,         .      ,         .

  ,    .    ,  .   ,         ,       -  Macys      .       -      .  , ,        ,    .     ,      .     黠    ?   󻠖  .          .

         ,   ,    [5 - Caletha Crawford, Cushman & Wakefields Retail Predictions for 2018 Are Not What You Want to Hear, Sourcing Journal, January 10, 2018, https://sourcingjournal.com/topics/business-news/retail-apocalypse-2018-cushman-wakefield-prediction-76866 (https://sourcingjournal.com/topics/business-news/retail-apocalypse-2018-cushman-wakefield-prediction-76866).] ,         ,    ,    ,   ,     ,          .




  :    


   Cushman & Wakefield    ,   2018  12000  ,    9000   2017-.  ,  2018      ,    : Sears, Mattress Factory, Brookstone, Rockport, Southeastern Grocers, Nine West, Bon-Ton[6 - CB Insights Research, Here Are 40 Casualties of the Retail Apocalypse and Why They Failed, October 17, 2018, https://www.cbinsights.com/research/retail-apocalypse-timeline-infographic (https://www.cbinsights.com/research/retail-apocalypse-timeline-infographic).].        頖     Toys R Us,   Payless ShoeSource,        hhgregg,     The Limited,     Aropostale,    Sports Authority        Radio Shack.         -        . Investopedia (- ,     )  2018-    [7 - Rebecca McClay, 2018: The Year of Retail Bankruptcies, Investopedia, August 3, 2018, https://www.investopedia.com/news/year-retail-bankruptcies-looms-m (https://www.investopedia.com/news/year-retail-bankruptcies-looms-m).].

           . ,   , ,  ,  ,  , ,   , ,  ,    .    ,     ,  堖   , , .      .

        , ,    .           ,    ,    (, -)    ()    ( )    (),      .        ,          .         ,       (,    ,    ,       ).      ,        .      :      .         ,          ,     ,   . -    .




     


   ,     ,         :      .        :

?       ,  .

?                .

?  70%      .

? ? ,    -        ,      ,     .

?       70% ,      -,      .

          ,     .     Procter & Gamble ,     70% ⠖  [8 - Michael Bucy etal., The How of Transformation, McKinsey & Company, May 2016, https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/the-how-of-transformation (https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/the-how-of-transformation).],[9 - Nadir Hirji and Gale Geddes, Whats Your Digital ROI? Realizing the Value of Digital Investments, Strategy&/PwC, October 12, 2016, https://www.strategyand.pwc.com/report/whats-your-digital-ROI (https://www.strategyand.pwc.com/report/whats-your-digital-ROI).].  ,    .               ,      ,       ,          .       .


      

        蠖   ,   .        ,      .      . ,        .      ,     , ,  ,    .      ,        .    ,  , , .


70%      

   ,        ,    ,       .     Fortune500       .     堖   ,     .       Credit Suisse[10 - Michael Sheetz, Technology Killing Off Corporate America: Average Life Span of Companies Under 20 Years, CNBC, August 24, 2017, https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/24/technology-killing-off-corporations-average-lifespan-of-company-under-20-years.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/24/technology-killing-off-corporations-average-lifespan-of-company-under-20-years.html).],       S&P500   20 (     1950- ),     . ,  ,      -  .      ,  70%       -  .   ,    84%[11 - Bruce Rogers, Why 84% of Companies Fail at Digital Transformation, Forbes.com, January 7, 2016, https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucerogers/2016/01/07/why-84-of-companies-fail-at-digital-transformation/#14f3cddc397b (https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucerogers/2016/01/07/why-84-of-companies-fail-at-digital-transformation/#14f3cddc397b).].   , ,    .      .


         

           .     . ,  ,  ,   ⠖      .       .       1970-,         . , ,      ?

      ,        ,    .         .

?   :    XVIIIXIX       .       ࠖ ,  .

?   :        XIX      .   ࠖ   ,     .

?   :     1980-       ࠖ    .

?   :  ,    ,    .   ࠖ       (   ) . ,   -    (,  ),    (-),  ,     (,  ),    ( ).

?            .

?  :         .         ,     , ,  .           ?.

?  :          .    ,         ,      -.

,     ,       ,     ,     .




  John Stephenson  


  John Stephenson          ,         .    ࠖ        .          젖           ,      .

-   XIX       ,      (, ),   ( , ),      (, ,    ).  1880        249  [12 - Art & Architecture Quarterly, Long Island Museum: The Carriage Collection, http://www.aaqeastend.com/contents/portfolio/long-island-museum-carriage-collection-finest-collection-of-horse-drawn-vehicles (http://www.aaqeastend.com/contents/portfolio/long-island-museum-carriage-collection-finest-collection-of-horse-drawn-vehicles).]. ,         .

 1890-  - -      .      ,   .  1914   ,   , 4600 ,  .   11     150![13 - Park City Museum, Transportation in America and the Carriage Age, September 2007, https://parkcityhistory.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Teacher-Background-Information.pdf (https://parkcityhistory.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Teacher-Background-Information.pdf).]  ,  John Stephenson    .

      1831.           ,  (     ),           .       ,  ,   , , ,   -.        ,  John Stephenson         ,          - 堖      ,              .    .  1904    J. G. Brill  .        1919    ,   .

  ,  John Stephenson,          .  ,   ,      (,  ,    ),           .

,   John Stephenson       ,     -,         蠖      -      .      .       18   .                        .  ,     ,      John Stephenson     ,             .                .



       ,     ,        -.


   ,   ,          -     .         ,  .           -    .        ,     .




  Studebaker   


        .  Studebaker Apple  :  ,   , ,         .   1950-         !  ,     ,          .

  1897   Studebaker    . ,          ,  .      ,   ,      .      1920[14 - Kent C. Boese, From Horses to Horsepower: Studebaker Helped Move a Nation, Smithsonian Libraries, http://www.sil.si.edu/ondisplay/studebaker/intro.htm (http://www.sil.si.edu/ondisplay/studebaker/intro.htm).],       .

,   ,  Studebaker    .  蠖     ,        , ,     ,     -,       .       1960- .    ( )     1966,    114-  Studebaker.

        .             . ,              ,       [15 - Richard M. Langworth, Studebaker 19461966: The Classic Postwar Years (Minneapolis, MN: Motorbooks International, 1993).].     General Motors  Ford         ,     ,    [16 - Boese, From Horses to Horsepower.].



               .


     蠖  ,   ,    ,      .     -.   -      ,    .




    ,        


 John Stephenson     ,   Studebaker   .                 .      5  .                (  ,         ).             5  ,  ,         .    ,     ,    .           .

?  :                 .        ,    (   )   ().        John Stephenson.

?   :     ,       . Studebaker         .     ,     :       ,          .     :  -  ( ,  ,  -),      .

     .   , -,    ,  -,     ,   .

  ,       ,   2015       Global Business Services   Procter & Gamble.




     Global Business Services  P&G


   2015-,          Procter & Gamble    .     Global Business Services (GBS)                  .  GBS    頖   , ,     ,   IT      . GBS                -.               .     ,              ,        .         ,     .

             ,    , .             GBS.     ,  , ,     ,    .        젖    ,    .




     ,         


    (   )     .   ,     ,  :  .   ,        GBS         .

,   ,         ,    .           -:    ,    [17 -  . -:    ,    . .:  , 2014.] (The Checklist Manifesto How To Get Things Right).          .       :   -       .  ,             -    蠖     .        ,          .



   ,    , :   ,    .


         GBS    ,   ,   蠖      .   ,    ,       ,           .

  .   The Economist, 99,999999%    [18 - B.R., A Crash Course in Probability, The Economist, January 29, 2015, https://www.economist.com/gulliver/2015/01/29/a-crash-course-in-probability (https://www.economist.com/gulliver/2015/01/29/a-crash-course-in-probability).],    30%    . ?        ,      ?  !      ,  99,999999%  ,       .      ,       ,       .       ,  ,    ,    -,    .




 


    ,        蠖         .  ,    ,     ,   .    (John Stephenson  Studebaker):     .         .           ,      .   ,  70%    ,    .   ,        .

       -ࠖ ,       .    ,             ,           .




 2

      



  2015,   ,    Global Business Services  Procter & Gamble,    .    ,           堖     ,     .            GBS,   :          -.




  .


   .

   ,     (https://www.litres.ru/toni-saldana/pochemu-cifrovaya-transformaciya-ne-daet-rezultata-i-chto-del/)  .

      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .



notes








1


       (. time-based competition).           ,         . . .




2


,     P&G   ,  ,       . . .




3


  2020  Neiman Marcus   . . .




4


 2005 Procter & Gamble     Gillette. . .




5


Caletha Crawford, Cushman & Wakefields Retail Predictions for 2018 Are Not What You Want to Hear, Sourcing Journal, January 10, 2018, https://sourcingjournal.com/topics/business-news/retail-apocalypse-2018-cushman-wakefield-prediction-76866 (https://sourcingjournal.com/topics/business-news/retail-apocalypse-2018-cushman-wakefield-prediction-76866).




6


CB Insights Research, Here Are 40 Casualties of the Retail Apocalypse and Why They Failed, October 17, 2018, https://www.cbinsights.com/research/retail-apocalypse-timeline-infographic (https://www.cbinsights.com/research/retail-apocalypse-timeline-infographic).




7


Rebecca McClay, 2018: The Year of Retail Bankruptcies, Investopedia, August 3, 2018, https://www.investopedia.com/news/year-retail-bankruptcies-looms-m (https://www.investopedia.com/news/year-retail-bankruptcies-looms-m).




8


Michael Bucy etal., The How of Transformation, McKinsey & Company, May 2016, https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/the-how-of-transformation (https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/the-how-of-transformation).




9


Nadir Hirji and Gale Geddes, Whats Your Digital ROI? Realizing the Value of Digital Investments, Strategy&/PwC, October 12, 2016, https://www.strategyand.pwc.com/report/whats-your-digital-ROI (https://www.strategyand.pwc.com/report/whats-your-digital-ROI).




10


Michael Sheetz, Technology Killing Off Corporate America: Average Life Span of Companies Under 20 Years, CNBC, August 24, 2017, https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/24/technology-killing-off-corporations-average-lifespan-of-company-under-20-years.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/24/technology-killing-off-corporations-average-lifespan-of-company-under-20-years.html).




11


Bruce Rogers, Why 84% of Companies Fail at Digital Transformation, Forbes.com, January 7, 2016, https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucerogers/2016/01/07/why-84-of-companies-fail-at-digital-transformation/#14f3cddc397b (https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucerogers/2016/01/07/why-84-of-companies-fail-at-digital-transformation/#14f3cddc397b).




12


Art & Architecture Quarterly, Long Island Museum: The Carriage Collection, http://www.aaqeastend.com/contents/portfolio/long-island-museum-carriage-collection-finest-collection-of-horse-drawn-vehicles (http://www.aaqeastend.com/contents/portfolio/long-island-museum-carriage-collection-finest-collection-of-horse-drawn-vehicles).




13


Park City Museum, Transportation in America and the Carriage Age, September 2007, https://parkcityhistory.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Teacher-Background-Information.pdf (https://parkcityhistory.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Teacher-Background-Information.pdf).




14


Kent C. Boese, From Horses to Horsepower: Studebaker Helped Move a Nation, Smithsonian Libraries, http://www.sil.si.edu/ondisplay/studebaker/intro.htm (http://www.sil.si.edu/ondisplay/studebaker/intro.htm).




15


Richard M. Langworth, Studebaker 19461966: The Classic Postwar Years (Minneapolis, MN: Motorbooks International, 1993).




16


Boese, From Horses to Horsepower.




17


 . -:    ,    . .:  , 2014.




18


B.R., A Crash Course in Probability, The Economist, January 29, 2015, https://www.economist.com/gulliver/2015/01/29/a-crash-course-in-probability (https://www.economist.com/gulliver/2015/01/29/a-crash-course-in-probability).


