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   Penguin Books Ltd Andrew Nurnberg Literary Agency



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Original English language edition first published byPenguin Books Ltd, London

Text copyright David Spiegelhalter 2019

The author has asserted his moral rights.

All rights reserved.

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1


   :  .   .    ,  堖 . .: , 2015. . .




2


   ࠖ             .




3


     : D. Spiegelhalter and N.Best, Shipmans Statistical Legacy, Significance 1:1 (2004), 1012.          http://www.the-shipman-inquiry.org.uk/reports.asp (http://www.the-shipman-inquiry.org.uk/reports.asp).




4


,   ,      .




5


        58-.         ,      ,       60    . . .




6


:      .




7


        1,3   . . .




8


T.W. Crowther etal., Mapping Tree Density at aGlobal Scale, Nature 525 (2015), 2015.




9


    0,1 ,         2,943,14  ( ,     ,     ,   ).   ,   15 (15000000000)           46% .




10


E. J. Evans, Thatcher and Thatcherism (Routledge, 2013), p. 30.




11


   :          [] (  , 2014).




12


           https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/wellbeing (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/wellbeing).




13


      ,        - .




14


N. T. Nikas, D. C. Bordlee and M. Moreira, Determination ofDeath and the Dead Donor Rule: ASurvey of the Current Law onBrain Death, Journal ofMedicine and Philosophy 41:3 (2016), 23756.




15


 ࠖ     (18371901). . .




16


J. P. Simmons and U. Simonsohn, Power Posing: P-Curving the Evidence, Psychological Science 28 (2017), 68793.    : A. J. C. Cuddy, S. J. Schultz and N. E. Fosse, P-Curving aMore Comprehensive Body ofResearch onPostural Feedback Reveals Clear Evidential Value for Power-Posing Effects: Reply toSimmons and Simonsohn (2017), Psychological Science 29 (2018), 65666.




17


     (ASA)          . . https://www.amstat.org/asa/education/Guidelines-for-Assessment-and-Instruction-in-Statistics-Education-Reports.aspx (https://www.amstat.org/asa/education/Guidelines-for-Assessment-and-Instruction-in-Statistics-Education-Reports.aspx).  PPDAC    : R.J.MacKay and R. W. Oldford, Scientific Method, Statistical Method and the Speed ofLight, Statistical Science 15 (2000), 25478.       ,     . . C.J.Wild and M.Pfannkuch, Statistical Thinking inEmpirical Enquiry, International Statistical Review 67 (1999), 223265,  -   , https://www.futurelearn.com/courses/data-to-insight (https://www.futurelearn.com/courses/data-to-insight).




18


    1979,       . . .

   :  .   . .: , 2014. . .




19


 (  (Penguin Books)   1937    - (  )    .       ,   The Guardian         1950-. . .




20


   :  .     . .:  , 2015. . .




21


  (. 1929)  ,  1964       (),     . . .




22


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24


. History ofScandal, Daily Telegraph, 18 July 2001, and D. J. Spiegelhalter etal., Commissioned Analysis ofSurgical Performance Using Routine Data: Lessons from the Bristol Inquiry, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A(Statistics inSociety) 165 (2002), 191221.




25


       ,         .               ,         .




26


    ,    ,          http://childrensheartsurgery.info/ (http://childrensheartsurgery.info/).




27


,     -     ,     .




28


. A. Cairo, The Truthful Art: Data, Charts, and Maps for Communication (New Riders, 2016), The Functional Art: AnIntroduction toInformation Graphics and Visualization (New Riders, 2012).




29


          1830- .   : Ҡ=  () / 


 ().         ;      :   (Ҡ<18,5),   ( 18,5 25),   (25 30),  (30 35),   ( 35).

       ,      ,  1972 Journal ofChronic Diseases. . .




30


            .http://www.who.int/features/qa/cancer-red-meat/en/ (http://www.who.int/features/qa/cancer-red-meat/en/). Bacon, Ham and Sausages Have the Same Cancer Risk asCigarettes Warn Experts, Daily Record, 23 October 2015.




31


 ,   18%  6? 1,18= 7,08,      7%  .




32


     , .   (#G2).




33


E.A. Akl etal., Using Alternative Statistical Formats for Presenting Risks and Risk Reductions, Cochrane Database ofSystematic Reviews 3 (2011).




34


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35


,       ,     6/94.     .    1 2,     1/2.  ,       ,     . ,  1 2       ,     1/3. ,       6/100,   6/94        : (6/100)/(94/100)= 6/94. . .




36


Statins Can Weaken Muscles and Joints: Cholesterol Drug Raises Risk ofProblems by up to20 per cent, Mail Online, 3 June 2013.  : I. Mansi etal., Statins and Musculoskeletal Conditions, Arthropathies, and Injuries, JAMA Internal Medicine 173 (2013), 131826.




37


 (.-. ???????  )    ,              (,    ),     (,    ).         .        ,    Annals ofEugenics    Annals ofGenetics  1955.




38


F. Galton, Vox Populi, Nature (1907);   : https://www.nature.com/articles/075450a0 (https://www.nature.com/articles/075450a0).




39


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46


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47


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