    .      
 

 


  
              ,   ,    ,           .    ,     ,     ,                .

         ,     .                   ,       ,     .



  PDF A4    .





., . 

    .      


 ,  ,  ,         , ,      



GOOD ECONOMICS FOR HARD TIMES

Copyright  2019 by Abhijit V.Banerjee and Esther Duflo

All rights reserved

  , 2021







        .   ,    .    ,     ,  .       ,     ,   .    ,      ,         ,        .

   ,         ,    - ,    (   )     .   ,   ,       ,  ,    ,   .

   ,   ,    ,      , -  ,    .      ,   ,    ,      .      ,  ,           ,    ,      ,    .

 ,      ,   ,  , ,       .   ,     ,     ,             .  ,          ,    ,  - .    ,     ,    .

       ,  ,        ,         , ,  ,          .    ,      ,  ,     ,        ,             ,  ,   ,       .                   ,       ,        ,     ,     ,  , , ,  ,       ,   ,           .




 1

MEGA: Make Economics Great Again[1 -     廠         2016 (Make America Great Again). . .]


   ,      ,         .

:     ?

: ,        .


     .  ,   ,  ,                ,            .   ,     ,                [2 - Amber Phillips, Is Split-Ticket Voting Officially Dead? Washington Post, 2017, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/17/is-split-ticket-voting-officially-dead/?utm_term=.6b57fc114762].    ,       ,     [3 - 8. Partisan Animosity, Personal Politics, Views ofTrump, Pew Research Center, 2017, https://www.people-press.org/2017/10/05/8-partisan-animosity-personal-politics-views-of-trump/].       ,   .       .    ,            [4 - Poll: Majority ofDemocrats Think Republicans Are Racist, Bigoted or Sexist, Axios, 2017, https://www.countable.us/articles/14975-poll-majority-democrats-think-republicans-racist-bigoted-sexist].

 ,   ,     ,     ,       ,     .   ,  ,   ,     ,   .

   ,      ,        , ,  ,      ,    ,   .  ,      ,    .     ,      .     .

     ,   ,     , , . ,    ,   ,    ,           .   ,           [5 - Stephen Hawkins, Daniel Yudkin, M?riam Juan-Torres, andTim Dixon, Hidden Tribes: AStudy ofAmericas Polarized Landscape, More inCommon, 2018, https://www.moreincommon.com/hidden-tribes]. ,   , ,      ,       , , ,      ,    ,    ,      .             ,     ,    .

         ,    .  , ,        , ,   .           ( ,    ,   ,        ).            .                .

     , ,  ,    .    ,        ,  ,           .        ,        ,     . ,          -    ,         ,      . ,       [6 -  ໠      (18121870),   1854. . .],        ,      [7 - Charles Dickens, Hard Times, Household Words weekly journal, London, 1854; . .:  ,  ,  ,     , . 19 (:    , 1960).].

           .   -,   ,    ?        ?   ?      ?       ?     ?   ?              ?    ?       ?     ?  , ,          ? , , ,    ,       ,      ?

      .      .               ;      ,   ,          , -    .      .

       .   ,  ,       , ,  ,    , ,  ,    .           ,   ,  , ,   .   ,  ,       ,         -,   .     ,      ,          ,       .

  ,       ,  ,    ,      .    -   .

 ,      ,    ,    .                 ,      ,   ,   .   .       .   2017   YouGov   ,     :       ,      ?.    . 84%  ,    .     ,    (         , 20%).     ,   25%.        [8 - Matthew Smith, Leave Voters Are Less Likely toTrust Any Experts  Even Weather Forecasters, YouGov, 2017, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/02/17/leave-voters-are-less-likely-trust-any-experts-eve].  2018       (   ,     ,          )     [9 -           : Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo, andStefanie Stantcheva, Me andEveryone Else: Do People Think Like Economists? MIMEO, Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology, 2019.].        25%       .    .

     ,       (  )       .              ,     ,       .    (Initiative onGlobal Markets     )        (  IGM Booth).    ,    IGM Booth,         .                . ,     IGM Booth    :            [10 - Steel andAluminum Tariffs, Chicago Booth, IGM Forum, 2018, http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/steel-and-aluminum-tariffs],            .

       .   40%     ,   ,   2015,       ,         (   )[11 - Refugees inGermany, Chicago Booth, IGM Forum, 2017, http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/refugees-in-germany (    ,    ).]. ,         , 35%  .  ,     ,               ,       ,    [12 - Robots andArtificial Intelligence, Chicago Booth, IGM Forum, 2017, http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/robots-and-artificial-intelligence].

 ,         ,        laissez-faire[13 - Laissez-faire      -       . . .],   .            20 [14 - Paola Sapienza andLuigi Zingales, Economic Experts versus Average Americans, American Economic Review 103, no. 10(2013): 636642, https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.103.3.636].    ,   ()        (   97,4%    66%  ).           2008 (  ,     ),    .   , 67%     39%      ,     .     , ,  ,         .         35   ,        ,  ,      .

 ,   ,      ,        .       ,          .        :      , ,     .        . ,       ,            ( 95%   ).   ,      ,      51%,   ,   , 46%.     .    ,           .

    ,   ,       ,   . , ,           ,      .     ,   ,      ,        ,    ,    .      ,     .       ,                 .

  ,   ,     .     ,        .       ,     IGM Booth,    .            Y      ,   ,     ,         .  ,          ,          .

 ,    ,    (  )     (  ),       . ,         , ,  ,     .         ,  ,            -    .       ()   ,         .   ,  ,         .  TheEconomist            2000 2014[15 - AMean Feat, Economist, January 9, 2016, https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2016/01/09/a-mean-feat].   ,      (,    2014,  2012),    2,8 .   ,           ,    ,       4%.  ,                .

  ,      ,  ,           ,      .        ?   ,    ,     ,     ?   ?        ?            .        ,        (    ,        ),   ,  -         .    ,    ,      ,      ,      ,     .

,       , ,   ,   ,  ,  ,         ,      .       -  ,        ,      ,     .   ,      ,    ;    ,         .

 ,       .        .    ,    ,      ,   ,    ,        ,    ,    ,   .      ,        ,     ,         ,    . ,       , ,  -     .    ,                     .    ,  , ,  ,        ,     ,   [16 - ,     , ,       ,     :      .   ,      ,  ,   . . .].     (     砫  )     ,  -    ,    ,      .     ;        ,   ,  ,   ,     .

 ,    . ,       .       ,       ,       , :        ,                  .     .   .       ,      ,     .   ,      ,      .

 ,      .      ,      ,      ,  ,    ,      ,  (  )           ,  ,   .          .        ,    ,    ,       ,    ,        [17 - Siddhartha Mukherjee, TheEmperor ofAll Maladies: ABiography ofCancer (New York: Scribner, 2010);  ,   .   (: , 2013).].        .   ,      ,   ,      ,  , ,  , ,     .  ,   ,    ,        ,         .

          ,    :          ,     ?  ,         ;    ,  ,    ,        ,     , ,   ,  ,  .

 ,            ,    .         ,        .            ,      , , , .          .    ,        ,    ,         .         ,      ,       .                 .          ,    ,       . ,  -              .

              .        ,           ,    .       ,     ,         ,      ,     .

  ,    ,      , , ,    ,      ,  .  ,       ,                 , ,  ,          .




 2

  


    ,  ,           . ,           ,       , ꠫ ,    (  2018   ),  ,       ,  ,     ,            .          ,     ,  ,      .      ,      ,   ,       , ,    ,   .

    ?       2017    ,  1960- 1990- ,   3%[18 -      (), https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/publications/migrationreport/docs/MigrationReport2017_Highlights.pdf; Mathias Czaika andHein de Haas, The Globalization ofMigration: Has theWorld Become More Migratory? International Migration Review 48, no. 2(2014): 283 323.].   c ()    1,5 2,5      .           .     ,    ,      ,   ,       .  2015 2016    ,  2018  ,    ,  638,     38% [19 - EU Migrant Crisis: Facts andFigures, News: European Parliament, June 30, 2017, http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/headlines/society/20170629STO78630/eu-migrant-crisis-facts-and-figures].         .  .   .

 ,        ,    .  22500    ,       (, , , ,   ),        [20 - Alberto Alesina, Armando Miano, andStefanie Stantcheva, Immigration andRedistribution, NBER Working Paper24733, 2018.]. ,         10%,        26%.

     ,          .  ,    , ,              ,      .

   ,  .      2017     , 99%     (  , 58%)  95%      蠫    (   55%       )[21 - Oscar Barrera Rodriguez, Sergei M.Guriev, Emeric Henry, andEkaterina Zhuravskaya, Facts, Alternative Facts, andFact-Checking inTimes ofPost-Truth Politics, SSRN Electronic Journal (2017), https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3004631].

    ,     ,      .             .            ,           [22 - Alesina, Miano, andStantcheva, Immigration andRedistribution.]. ,    ,   ,      (         ),       .     ,     ,      .           .  ,       ,        [23 - Rodriguez, Guriev, Henry, andZhuravskaya, Facts, Alternative Facts, andFact-Checking inTimes ofPost-Truth Politics.].  ,      ,       .     .        .     .

  ,    ,        ,   ,      ,      .        .    , , ,    ,      (    ),      ; ,      ,    ,     ,            ,  .

    ,          ,        .    ,     ,      ( ).         ,           .    ,      .       ,    ,   .    ,         ,  .2.1.






. 2.1.    .       



  ,   . -,       (,    , )         ,   .  ,         ,   , ,  ,      ,     ,    .

-,     ,           ,     ,          .  , ,     ,    ,   ,    .        .          .


 

  ,    :

		      ,
		     .
		    
		   , 
		     ,
		    .
		   ,
		,   
		, ,   
		    ,
		  .
		     
		    [24 - Warsan Shire, Home, https://www.seekers guidance.org/articles/social-issues/home-warsan-shire/].

( ..)
     . ,         , , ,    ,      .      ,       (,      , ),  20 ,  ,    10 ,   -.  2016,     ,          (    ). ,    ,       ,               .

,      , ,     ,  ,       . ,      -    ,      ,      ,         .    ,          [25 - Maheshwor Shrestha, Push andPull: AStudy ofInternational Migration from Nepal, Policy Research Working Paper WPS 7965 (Washington, DC: World Bank Group, 2017), http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/318581486560991532/Push-and-pull-a-study-of-international-migration-from-Nepal]. ,       ,       .             .     .    ,    ,    ,    ,   .

,      ,     .    ,    ,        .                 ,   [26 - Aparajito, directed by Satyajit Ray, 1956, Merchant Ivory Productions.].      ,         ,       .   ,    .

        ,           .  ,       .  ,            ,   ,   ,    ,       ,        ,     [27 -   65,   ,     52% ,   : Alwyn Young, Inequality, theUrban-Rural Gap, andMigration, Quarterly Journal ofEconomics 128, no. 4 (2013): 172785.].     ,        -,      , ,                ()[28 - Abhijit Banerjee, Nils Enevoldsen, Rohini Pande, andMichael Walton, Information as anIncentive: Experimental Evidence from Delhi, MIMEO, Harvard, https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/rpande/files/delhivoter_shared-14.pdf].    ,      30%    ,          .       (    100 )     ,      .

  ,      ,     .  ,    20102015,      ,  ,      350000[29 - Lois Labrianidis andManolis Pratsinakis, Greeces New Emigration atTimes ofCrisis, LSE Hellenic Observatory GreeSE Paper 99, 2016.].     3%  ,      2013 2014   27%,  ,  ,        .


 

, ,   ;  ,    .           ,         ,   ,      ,   ,     ,   . ,  ,       ,          ,     .     ,     ,     ,  ,      (     , ,        ).       .

,        ,   ,     ,       ,        .     .    ,              ,         .

              .      ,  ,    ,    , , ,   ,      ,      ,   ,   .                (     ) ,            [30 - John Gibson, David McKenzie, Halahingano Rohorua, andSteven Stillman, The Long-Term Impacts ofInternational Migration: Evidence from aLottery, World Bank Economic Review 32, no. 1 (February 2018): 12747.].        , ,   ,            ,    [31 - Michael Clemens, Claudio Montenegro, andLant Pritchett, ThePlace Premium: Wage Differences forIdentical Workers Across theU.S. Border, Center forGlobal Development Working Paper 148, 2009.].


 

       ,       ,        .  ,     ,     . ,       ,     . ,      ,       .

23 1973   ,      ,   .  5200            ,      ,      ,        .         (    ),         ,   .      ,       .  ,         ;         ,  ,        .        :        ,  ex ante  ,     ,  ,    ,    .

     . ,    ,  ,      ,    ,    ,   ,   ,   . 42% ,    ,   (  27% ,   )[32 - Emi Nakamura, Jsef Sigurdsson, andJn Steinsson, TheGift ofMoving: Intergenerational Consequences of aMobility Shock, NBER Working Paper 22392, 2017, revised January 2019, DOI: 10.3386/w22392.].     ,    ,                 . ,      ,        .

  ,  ,    ,       25,       [33 - Ibid.]. ʠ2014 ,     ,  3000   ,  ,      ,      .        ,   ,   .    ,        .  ,          ,     ,      ,          .   ,        ,    .         (    ); ,    ,    ,     ,       .

              .       ,          .    ,  430000 ,   11%    ,         [34 - Matti Sarvim?ki, Roope Uusitalo, andMarkus J?ntti, Habit Formation and theMisallocation ofLabor: Evidence from Forced Migrations, 2019, https://ssrn.com/abstract=3361356or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3361356].

              ,     ,     .    ,    ,        ,      ,   ,     ,    .  ,          .

,            ,     ,  ,          ,     .


Ҡ ?

,      ,               .      ,     ,      .

      .         ,    ( ),         ,      ,           ,      ,       .        ,                [35 - Gharad Bryan, Shyamal Chowdhury, andAhmed Mushfiq Mobarak, Underinvestment in aProfitable Technology: TheCase ofSeasonal Migration inBangladesh, Econometrica 82, no. 5(2014): 16711748.].     ()      ,          (       ),       11,5    (           ),     ,   .

        (22%) ,        .      ,        105   ,    ,      .         66.    ,      ,     50% ,  ,             .

          ,      ?      ?

     ,       .               (   ),          .  ,   ,          ,      ,    ,           .        ,          .

 ,    ,  ,  ,    ,   ,       ,      ,         .        ,   . -           .      ,    ,       ,  ,   ,  ,    ,  , , .


  ?

        ,      ,                      .

         .      ,  ,         .   ,         ,   .          .  ,              ,        .       ;   ,     .     , ,  ,   .

         ,       ,            .      ,    ,      . ,   ,            ,      .          ,      ,   ,   ,   ,     .   ,                       .

               [36 - David Card, The Impact of theMariel Boatlift on theMiami Labor Market, Industrial andLabor Relations Review 43, no. 2(1990): 245257.].       1980      125000,      ,        ,   ,         .   .    20,         .     .       7%.

     ?   ,       .                          (, , - ).    ,  ,                             .

    ,     ,    ;          .              ,      , ,         ,  ,             .

        ,         .         ;        .    ,           ,       (      ,     ).     ,     ,    .   ,            .

,      ,      . ,             .  ,     ,        .      ,               ,   ,   ,     ,       [37 - George J.Borjas, The Wage Impact of theMarielitos: AReappraisal, Industrial andLabor Relations Review 70, no. 5 (February13, 2017): 10771110.].      ,           ,    ,     .        ,      ,        - (       ,        ),    (       )[38 - Giovanni Peri andVasil Yasenov, The Labor Market Effects of aRefugee Wave: Synthetic Control Method Meets theMariel Boatlift, Journal ofHuman Resources 54, no. 2 (January2018): 267309.].  ,    ,             ,             [39 - Ibid.]. , ,         [40 - George J.Borjas, Still More on Mariel: TheRole ofRace, NBER Working Paper 23504, 2017.].

    ,     ,    .  ,      ,       , ,  ,     .   ,         ,       .

 ,         ,             . ,            1962[41 - Jennifer Hunt, The Impact of the1962Repatriates from Algeria on theFrench Labor Market, Industrial andLabor Relations Review 45, no. 3 (April 1992): 556572.].            ,       1990,     12%    [42 - Rachel M.Friedberg, The Impact ofMass Migration on theIsraeli Labor Market, Quarterly Journal ofEconomics 116, no. 4 (November 2001): 13731408.].                (19101930)[43 - Marco Tabellini, Gifts of theImmigrants, Woes of theNatives: Lessons from theAge ofMass Migration, HBS Working Paper 19-005, 2018.].             .       . ,          ,   ,       ,      .

                .   ,  [44 - Mette Foged andGiovanni Peri, Immigrants Effect on Native Workers: New Analysis on Longitudinal Data, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 8, no. 2(2016): 134.].     ,           .   ,              . ,   ,             .   ,   1994 1998    , , , , , , , - ,          .  1998     ,       ,       .    , , ,    ,        .          ,   ,     ,     1994 1998       .

,     ,  .              ,     ,   ,      .

     ,   ,  ,         .          ,      ,     .      ,  ?  ,         ,     267    ,     ,      (    )[45 - TheEconomic andFiscal Consequences ofImmigration, National Academies ofSciences, Engineering, andMedicine (Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2017), https://doi.org/10.17226/23550].               .  ,    ,    ,    (  ).     ,      ,  ,  ,  ,     ,     ,         :



            -     (1997)    ,        10           .



   

      (  ,   )     ?      ,  ,   ,         ,    ,           .

  ,              . -,     ,  ,       ,       .   :    ,   .            .    .2.2,           , ,       ,        .






. 2.2.      .           



     ,      ,           .             .  , 10%         .   ,       ,    ,  ,      ,    ,    ,   .      ,       .          ,     ;        ,         [46 - Christian Dustmann, Uta Sch?nberg, andJan Stuhler, Labor Supply Shocks, Native Wages, and theAdjustment ofLocal Employment, Quarterly Journal ofEconomics 132, no. 1 (February 2017): 435483.].     ,    .2.1,         ,       .

 ,           ,   ,      .           .   1964  ,   , ,       ,        .             [47 - Michael A.Clemens, Ethan G.Lewis, andHannah M.Postel, Immigration Restrictions as Active Labor Market Policy: Evidence from theMexican Bracero Exclusion, American Economic Review 108, no. 6 (June 2018): 14681487.].   ,   ,      ,   . -,   . ,  1950-      ,       ,      .  1964,   ,        ,  1967   100%,   ,     ,       . -,     ,     . , ,    ,    ,  , , ,   .

 ,      ,   ,      ,     ,            .               ,  ,       [48 - Foged andPeri, Immigrants Effect on Native Workers.].                .           ,       ,    ,        ,  ,      .               XIX   XX.

       ,         .     ,       ,    ,     .         ;     ,         .

-,   ,      ,    ,   ,      ,      ;   ,  ,     .           ,           [49 - Patricia Corts, The Effect ofLow-Skilled Immigration on US Prices: Evidence from CPI Data, Journal ofPolitical Economy 116, no. 3 (2008): 381422.].  ,    ,        [50 - Patricia Corts andJos Tessada, Low-Skilled Immigration and theLabor Supply ofHighly Skilled Women, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 3, no. 3 (July 2011): 88123.].      ,   ,      (  ,  , )   ,     .

        ,   .    ,     ,       .      ,  , ,     ,       .

,   ,     ,    .      砫       ,  ,  ,  ,         ,     [51 - Emma Lazarus, The New Colossus, inEmma Lazarus: Selected Poems, ed. John Hollander (New York: Library ofAmerica, 2005), 58. [  (18491887)    ,    (1883),        -. . .].].            XIX   XX[52 - Ran Abramitzky, Leah Platt Boustan, andKatherine Eriksson, Europes Tired, Poor, Huddled Masses: Self-Selection andEconomic Outcomes in theAge ofMass Migration, American Economic Review 102, no. 5(2012): 18321856.].        .        ,     .   ,  ,  ,      ;      . ,   ,   ( ),      ,      .        砫   .

, ,        ,      ,     ,   (  ),        .           , ,   ,          ,    .        ,  2017 43%          ( Fortune 500)     .  , ,  ,  52% 25 , 57% 35 ,         [53 - Immigrant Founders of the2017Fortune 500, Center forAmerican Entrepreneurship, 2017, http://startupsusa.org/fortune500/].      .      .    .        .

  ,     ,   ,   ,    ,          ,   ,     ,   -   .         , ,  ,       . ,          ,   ,         ,      -  ,    ,      . , ,         ,       ,      ,  ,         [54 - Nakamura, Sigurdsson, andSteinsson, The Gift ofMoving.].

 ,         ,   ,   ,             .    , ,     ,    .         ,           ,      .


 Ƞ

 ,    ,      ,   ,      .  ,  ,    -,   ,   .

      ,      . ,       20 ,    ,       .       .

        .    -    ,           . ,       ,     ,        ,     .    ,  ,       .       .

     ,    , ,      . -,      ,    ;      ,       .  ,      ,       ,      .         ,      .   ,       ,        ,      ,       . -,      ,     ( , ,      [55 - Jie Bai, Melons as Lemons: Asymmetric Information, Consumer Learning, andQuality Provision, working paper, 2018, https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B52sohAPtnAWYVhBY-m11cDBrSmM/view]).  ,     ,      [56 -  ,            ,       ,    :  ,              ,   ,       ,   ,    ,      : Karl Marx, Capital, vol. 1 (New York: Penguin, 1992), 272273;  , .  I,    , , . 23 (:    , 1960), 179.].

 ,     ,  ,   .        ,        , ,    .       ,    , ,  ,   .    ,               .                 ,        [57 - Girum Abebe, Stefano Caria, andEsteban Ortiz-Ospina, The Selection ofTalent: Experimental andStructural Evidence from Ethiopia, working paper, 2018.].                ,   .     ,      ,      ,       . , ,      .  ,       ,     .     ,     ,      ,      ,    ,     [58 - Christopher Blattman andStefan Dercon, The Impacts ofIndustrial andEntrepreneurial Work on Income andHealth: Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 10, no. 3 (July 2018): 138.].  ,         ,         ,   .    , 56%             [59 - Girum Abebe, Stefano Caria, Marcel Fafchamps, Paolo Falco, Simon Franklin, andSimon Quinn, Anonymity or Distance? Job Search andLabour Market Exclusion in aGrowing African City, CSAE Working Paper WPS/2016-10-2, 2018.],         [60 - Stefano Caria, Choosing Connections. Experimental Evidence from aLink-Formation Experiment inUrban Ethiopia, working paper, 2015; Pieter Serneels, The Nature ofUnemployment Among Young Men inUrban Ethiopia, Review ofDevelopment Economics 11, no. 1 (2007): 170186.].

     . -,           ,        .        ;     .

    .       . ,    ,    ;      .       ,     ,      .           ,         ,    ,     ,    :   ,  ,   ,  .

    ,   ,    ,    ,       ,     .      .       ,      ,  ,     ,  ,           [61 - Carl Shapiro andJoseph E.Stiglitz, Equilibrium Unemployment as aWorker Discipline Device, American Economic Review 74, no. 3 (June 1984): 433444.].

         .  ,             -   .     ,        ,       ,      ,         [62 - Emily Breza, Supreet Kaur, andYogita Shamdasani, The Morale Effects ofPay Inequality, Quarterly Journal ofEconomics 133, no. 2(2018): 611663.].     .    ,         .

         .           , , ,    ,    (     )[63 - Dustmann, Sch?nberg, andStuhler, Labor Supply Shocks, Native Wages, and theAdjustment ofLocal Employment.].        . ,    , -   ,      .   ,        ,     ,      .

  ,         ,     ,      ,    ,     ,    ,     ,     .  ,     ;      ,     ,    .


 

           .  ,     ,       .  ,   ,  ,         ,     .   ,   ,  ,     .        ,  , ,             . ,  ,             .   ,      ,    ,         ,       . ,   ,  ,     ,         ( ,       ).             ,          .  ,          ,         ,      .

 ,      ,      ,   ,    ,      ,       [64 - Patricia Corts andJessica Pan, Foreign Nurse Importation andNative Nurse Displacement, Journal ofHealth Economics 37(2017): 164180.].     ,   ,   ,      ,       ,       .

 ,    ,       ,   ,                .      ,        ( ,      ,     )              (, ,    ).


ߠ ?

   .    ,               ,       ,         .   , -      ,     ,     ,    ,  ,     ,       .

  ,  ,     ,           (, )      ( ).   , ,    ,    ,      .     ;     .        .        ,     ,     .     ?


 

  ,      . ,           ,    .   ,  ,     .    ,      ,   ,    ,   ,       .         ,    ;        ,        . ,   ,                 ; ,        ,            .    .  ,    , , ,  ,          ,    , ,      ,    [65 - Kaivan Munshi, Networks in theModern Economy: Mexican Migrants in theU.S. Labor Market, Quarterly Journal ofEconomics 118, no. 2(2003): 549599.].

 ,        ,     .       ,        .              .          ,      .     ,            ,          (      ),   ,    ,    ,     (   ),    .     ,   ,     .    .   .

     ;      ,    ,       [66 - Lori Beaman, Social Networks and theDynamics ofLabor Market Outcomes: Evidence from Refugees Resettled in theU.S., Review ofEconomic Studies 79, no. 1 (January 2012): 128161.].           ,       .

,      ,    ,     ,    ?      .      ,    ,     . , ,       ,  ,     ,     .  , ,   , ,   (,  -    ; ,    ),   ,  ,        (,      ),         .   ,    ,  .

       .  1970  ,   ,      ,  ,  ⓻,   ,       ,        .      ,       ;       ,       [67 - George Akerlof, The Market forLemons: Quality Uncertainty and theMarket Mechanism, Quarterly Journal ofEconomics84, no. 3(1970): 488500;  ,  :     , THESIS:         , 1994, . 5: 91104.].     ,      ,          (    ,      ).       ,  ,      .  ,             ,    [68 -   , -,      .  ,                ,  1970         .    ,      .   ,     ,                 .    ,       ,    ,     .].

,    ,   ,      ,    ,     ,    ,      .        .      ,   ,          .


 

        ,       [69 - Banerjee, Enevoldsen, Pande, andWalton, Information as anIncentive.].    :       ,   ,   . ,    ,   .  .         [70 - World air quality report, AirVisual, 2018, https://www.airvisual.com/world-most-polluted-cities].    ,           , 69%     , 54%    .    ,         (  )   ,   .

            . ,     ,    ,   .       ,       ,      [71 - Abhijit Banerjee andEsther Duflo, The Economic Lives of thePoor, Journal ofEconomic Perspectives 21, no. 1 (2007): 141168.].          ,    .  ,           , , ,          ,    .

          ?    - ? ,       ,    .            .         ,   .

   .        ,    .   ,     4,5          2016 2040,     223,  1,1[72 - Global Infrastructure Hub, Global Infrastructure Outlook, Oxford Economics, 2017.].  ,              ,       . ,           .         ,      ,   ,   ,          .          ,       ,      ,    ,       .         .

      , ,           ,          ,     -[73 - Edward Glaeser, Triumph of theCity: How Our Greatest Invention Makes Us Richer, Smarter, Greener, Healthier, andHappier (London: Macmillan, 2011);  ,  .       , , ,  (:   , 2014).]. ,      ,     ,   ,  , - .                    .         ,     [74 - Jan K.Brueckner, Shihe Fu Yizhen Gu, andJunfu Zhang, Measuring theStringency ofLand Use Regulation: TheCase ofChinas Building Height Limits, Review ofEconomics andStatistics99, no. 4(2017) 663677.].

            .       (  )                   ,   ,  ,       ,  , , ,  .    , ,     ,   , ,     ,        ,      .    ,      ,     ,        ,      ,     ,         .       ,            ,            .

      .     .  ,  , ,     ,          ,   .     ,    ,   - .      ,   , , ,       ,   .  (  )      ,  .           ,     .

          ,      .   ,       ,        [75 - Abhijit Banerjee andEsther Duflo, Poor Economics (New York: Public Affairs, 2011), ch. 6.].


 

          .    ,            1979,       ,  1954[76 - W.Arthur Lewis, Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies ofLabour, Manchester School 22, no. 2(1954): 139191.]. ,      100  .       ,              ,   500  ,   ,     125  .   ,       .    ,          ?  ,         ,          . ,       500,   ,      ,        100,    .     ,         100,        500  . ,          ;         .

  ,      ,  , ,      50  ,   ,      150,         .      ,    .  ,       ,   -    .   ,     .  ,   ,          ,      ,   .      .

     .  ,     ,     ,    ,      .  ,  ,  ,   ,     ,       ,         .   ,   ,    ,     -,          [77 - Robert Jensen andNolan H.Miller, Keepin Em Down on theFarm: Migration andStrategic Investment inChildrens Schooling, NBER Working Paper23122, 2017.].      :       .       .      ;       ,    ,    ,    , , ,   ,      [78 - Robert Jensen, Do Labor Market Opportunities Affect Young Womens Work andFamily Decisions? Experimental Evidence from India, Quarterly Journal ofEconomics 127, no. 2 (2012): 753792.].       ;    ,   ,       ,   ,     ,         ,      . ,  ,       ,    .


  

   ,     11,5,               ,    ,             [79 - Bryan, Chowdhury, andMobarak, Underinvestment in aProfitable Technology.].      ,      ,         , ,         .     ,      ,    ,         .         ?

,   .      11,5  . ,         ,           ,       , , ,    .  ,    ,          11,5     .     ?       ,    .        .

             ,    .     , ,      .      ,       .

      ,           ,        .      ,    ,  ,    ,    .     ,           ,       .  ,   ,  ,     [80 - Maheshwor Shrestha, Get Rich or Die Tryin: Perceived Earnings, Perceived Mortality Rate, and theValue of aStatistical Life ofPotential Work-Migrants from Nepal, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 7945, 2017.].             ,        .       ,      , ,   ,  ,            .

 ,              .  ,      25%,      ,    ,     .       ,      .     ,           .    1,3.

                 (  ).    ,  ,    ,  ,     ( ,         ),       . ,       ,   ,         ,      .  ,     ,  ;       , ,      ,       ,  ,     ,    . ,        ,    , ,       ,     .  ,  ,     ,  , ,   .

      ?      , ,    -     ( )           ,    [81 - Maheshwor Shrestha, Death Scares: How Potential Work-Migrants Infer Mortality Rates from Migrant Deaths, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 7946, 2017.]




  .


   .

   ,     (https://www.litres.ru/pages/biblio_book/?art=63575583)  .

      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .



notes








1


    廠         2016 (Make America Great Again). . .




2


Amber Phillips, Is Split-Ticket Voting Officially Dead? Washington Post, 2017, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/17/is-split-ticket-voting-officially-dead/?utm_term=.6b57fc114762




3


8. Partisan Animosity, Personal Politics, Views ofTrump, Pew Research Center, 2017, https://www.people-press.org/2017/10/05/8-partisan-animosity-personal-politics-views-of-trump/




4


Poll: Majority ofDemocrats Think Republicans Are Racist, Bigoted or Sexist, Axios, 2017, https://www.countable.us/articles/14975-poll-majority-democrats-think-republicans-racist-bigoted-sexist




5


Stephen Hawkins, Daniel Yudkin, M?riam Juan-Torres, andTim Dixon, Hidden Tribes: AStudy ofAmericas Polarized Landscape, More inCommon, 2018, https://www.moreincommon.com/hidden-tribes




6


 ໠      (18121870),   1854. . .




7


Charles Dickens, Hard Times, Household Words weekly journal, London, 1854; . .:  ,  ,  ,     , . 19 (:    , 1960).




8


Matthew Smith, Leave Voters Are Less Likely toTrust Any Experts  Even Weather Forecasters, YouGov, 2017, https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/02/17/leave-voters-are-less-likely-trust-any-experts-eve




9


          : Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo, andStefanie Stantcheva, Me andEveryone Else: Do People Think Like Economists? MIMEO, Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology, 2019.




10


Steel andAluminum Tariffs, Chicago Booth, IGM Forum, 2018, http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/steel-and-aluminum-tariffs




11


Refugees inGermany, Chicago Booth, IGM Forum, 2017, http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/refugees-in-germany (    ,    ).




12


Robots andArtificial Intelligence, Chicago Booth, IGM Forum, 2017, http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/robots-and-artificial-intelligence




13


Laissez-faire      -       . . .




14


Paola Sapienza andLuigi Zingales, Economic Experts versus Average Americans, American Economic Review 103, no. 10(2013): 636642, https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.103.3.636




15


AMean Feat, Economist, January 9, 2016, https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2016/01/09/a-mean-feat




16


,     , ,       ,     :      .   ,      ,  ,   . . .




17


Siddhartha Mukherjee, TheEmperor ofAll Maladies: ABiography ofCancer (New York: Scribner, 2010);  ,   .   (: , 2013).




18


     (), https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/publications/migrationreport/docs/MigrationReport2017_Highlights.pdf; Mathias Czaika andHein de Haas, The Globalization ofMigration: Has theWorld Become More Migratory? International Migration Review 48, no. 2(2014): 283 323.




19


EU Migrant Crisis: Facts andFigures, News: European Parliament, June 30, 2017, http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/headlines/society/20170629STO78630/eu-migrant-crisis-facts-and-figures




20


Alberto Alesina, Armando Miano, andStefanie Stantcheva, Immigration andRedistribution, NBER Working Paper24733, 2018.




21


Oscar Barrera Rodriguez, Sergei M.Guriev, Emeric Henry, andEkaterina Zhuravskaya, Facts, Alternative Facts, andFact-Checking inTimes ofPost-Truth Politics, SSRN Electronic Journal (2017), https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3004631




22


Alesina, Miano, andStantcheva, Immigration andRedistribution.




23


Rodriguez, Guriev, Henry, andZhuravskaya, Facts, Alternative Facts, andFact-Checking inTimes ofPost-Truth Politics.




24


Warsan Shire, Home, https://www.seekers guidance.org/articles/social-issues/home-warsan-shire/




25


Maheshwor Shrestha, Push andPull: AStudy ofInternational Migration from Nepal, Policy Research Working Paper WPS 7965 (Washington, DC: World Bank Group, 2017), http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/318581486560991532/Push-and-pull-a-study-of-international-migration-from-Nepal




26


Aparajito, directed by Satyajit Ray, 1956, Merchant Ivory Productions.




27


  65,   ,     52% ,   : Alwyn Young, Inequality, theUrban-Rural Gap, andMigration, Quarterly Journal ofEconomics 128, no. 4 (2013): 172785.




28


Abhijit Banerjee, Nils Enevoldsen, Rohini Pande, andMichael Walton, Information as anIncentive: Experimental Evidence from Delhi, MIMEO, Harvard, https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/rpande/files/delhivoter_shared-14.pdf




29


Lois Labrianidis andManolis Pratsinakis, Greeces New Emigration atTimes ofCrisis, LSE Hellenic Observatory GreeSE Paper 99, 2016.




30


John Gibson, David McKenzie, Halahingano Rohorua, andSteven Stillman, The Long-Term Impacts ofInternational Migration: Evidence from aLottery, World Bank Economic Review 32, no. 1 (February 2018): 12747.




31


Michael Clemens, Claudio Montenegro, andLant Pritchett, ThePlace Premium: Wage Differences forIdentical Workers Across theU.S. Border, Center forGlobal Development Working Paper 148, 2009.




32


Emi Nakamura, Jsef Sigurdsson, andJn Steinsson, TheGift ofMoving: Intergenerational Consequences of aMobility Shock, NBER Working Paper 22392, 2017, revised January 2019, DOI: 10.3386/w22392.




33


Ibid.




34


Matti Sarvim?ki, Roope Uusitalo, andMarkus J?ntti, Habit Formation and theMisallocation ofLabor: Evidence from Forced Migrations, 2019, https://ssrn.com/abstract=3361356or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3361356




35


Gharad Bryan, Shyamal Chowdhury, andAhmed Mushfiq Mobarak, Underinvestment in aProfitable Technology: TheCase ofSeasonal Migration inBangladesh, Econometrica 82, no. 5(2014): 16711748.




36


David Card, The Impact of theMariel Boatlift on theMiami Labor Market, Industrial andLabor Relations Review 43, no. 2(1990): 245257.




37


George J.Borjas, The Wage Impact of theMarielitos: AReappraisal, Industrial andLabor Relations Review 70, no. 5 (February13, 2017): 10771110.




38


Giovanni Peri andVasil Yasenov, The Labor Market Effects of aRefugee Wave: Synthetic Control Method Meets theMariel Boatlift, Journal ofHuman Resources 54, no. 2 (January2018): 267309.




39


Ibid.




40


George J.Borjas, Still More on Mariel: TheRole ofRace, NBER Working Paper 23504, 2017.




41


Jennifer Hunt, The Impact of the1962Repatriates from Algeria on theFrench Labor Market, Industrial andLabor Relations Review 45, no. 3 (April 1992): 556572.




42


Rachel M.Friedberg, The Impact ofMass Migration on theIsraeli Labor Market, Quarterly Journal ofEconomics 116, no. 4 (November 2001): 13731408.




43


Marco Tabellini, Gifts of theImmigrants, Woes of theNatives: Lessons from theAge ofMass Migration, HBS Working Paper 19-005, 2018.




44


Mette Foged andGiovanni Peri, Immigrants Effect on Native Workers: New Analysis on Longitudinal Data, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 8, no. 2(2016): 134.




45


TheEconomic andFiscal Consequences ofImmigration, National Academies ofSciences, Engineering, andMedicine (Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2017), https://doi.org/10.17226/23550




46


Christian Dustmann, Uta Sch?nberg, andJan Stuhler, Labor Supply Shocks, Native Wages, and theAdjustment ofLocal Employment, Quarterly Journal ofEconomics 132, no. 1 (February 2017): 435483.




47


Michael A.Clemens, Ethan G.Lewis, andHannah M.Postel, Immigration Restrictions as Active Labor Market Policy: Evidence from theMexican Bracero Exclusion, American Economic Review 108, no. 6 (June 2018): 14681487.




48


Foged andPeri, Immigrants Effect on Native Workers.




49


Patricia Corts, The Effect ofLow-Skilled Immigration on US Prices: Evidence from CPI Data, Journal ofPolitical Economy 116, no. 3 (2008): 381422.




50


Patricia Corts andJos Tessada, Low-Skilled Immigration and theLabor Supply ofHighly Skilled Women, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 3, no. 3 (July 2011): 88123.




51


Emma Lazarus, The New Colossus, inEmma Lazarus: Selected Poems, ed. John Hollander (New York: Library ofAmerica, 2005), 58. [  (18491887)    ,    (1883),        -. . .].




52


Ran Abramitzky, Leah Platt Boustan, andKatherine Eriksson, Europes Tired, Poor, Huddled Masses: Self-Selection andEconomic Outcomes in theAge ofMass Migration, American Economic Review 102, no. 5(2012): 18321856.




53


Immigrant Founders of the2017Fortune 500, Center forAmerican Entrepreneurship, 2017, http://startupsusa.org/fortune500/




54


Nakamura, Sigurdsson, andSteinsson, The Gift ofMoving.




55


Jie Bai, Melons as Lemons: Asymmetric Information, Consumer Learning, andQuality Provision, working paper, 2018, https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B52sohAPtnAWYVhBY-m11cDBrSmM/view




56


 ,            ,       ,    :  ,              ,   ,       ,   ,    ,      : Karl Marx, Capital, vol. 1 (New York: Penguin, 1992), 272273;  , .  I,    , , . 23 (:    , 1960), 179.




57


Girum Abebe, Stefano Caria, andEsteban Ortiz-Ospina, The Selection ofTalent: Experimental andStructural Evidence from Ethiopia, working paper, 2018.




58


Christopher Blattman andStefan Dercon, The Impacts ofIndustrial andEntrepreneurial Work on Income andHealth: Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 10, no. 3 (July 2018): 138.




59


Girum Abebe, Stefano Caria, Marcel Fafchamps, Paolo Falco, Simon Franklin, andSimon Quinn, Anonymity or Distance? Job Search andLabour Market Exclusion in aGrowing African City, CSAE Working Paper WPS/2016-10-2, 2018.




60


Stefano Caria, Choosing Connections. Experimental Evidence from aLink-Formation Experiment inUrban Ethiopia, working paper, 2015; Pieter Serneels, The Nature ofUnemployment Among Young Men inUrban Ethiopia, Review ofDevelopment Economics 11, no. 1 (2007): 170186.




61


Carl Shapiro andJoseph E.Stiglitz, Equilibrium Unemployment as aWorker Discipline Device, American Economic Review 74, no. 3 (June 1984): 433444.




62


Emily Breza, Supreet Kaur, andYogita Shamdasani, The Morale Effects ofPay Inequality, Quarterly Journal ofEconomics 133, no. 2(2018): 611663.




63


Dustmann, Sch?nberg, andStuhler, Labor Supply Shocks, Native Wages, and theAdjustment ofLocal Employment.




64


Patricia Corts andJessica Pan, Foreign Nurse Importation andNative Nurse Displacement, Journal ofHealth Economics 37(2017): 164180.




65


Kaivan Munshi, Networks in theModern Economy: Mexican Migrants in theU.S. Labor Market, Quarterly Journal ofEconomics 118, no. 2(2003): 549599.




66


Lori Beaman, Social Networks and theDynamics ofLabor Market Outcomes: Evidence from Refugees Resettled in theU.S., Review ofEconomic Studies 79, no. 1 (January 2012): 128161.




67


George Akerlof, The Market forLemons: Quality Uncertainty and theMarket Mechanism, Quarterly Journal ofEconomics84, no. 3(1970): 488500;  ,  :     , THESIS:         , 1994, . 5: 91104.




68


  , -,      .  ,                ,  1970         .    ,      .   ,     ,                 .    ,       ,    ,     .




69


Banerjee, Enevoldsen, Pande, andWalton, Information as anIncentive.




70


World air quality report, AirVisual, 2018, https://www.airvisual.com/world-most-polluted-cities




71


Abhijit Banerjee andEsther Duflo, The Economic Lives of thePoor, Journal ofEconomic Perspectives 21, no. 1 (2007): 141168.




72


Global Infrastructure Hub, Global Infrastructure Outlook, Oxford Economics, 2017.




73


Edward Glaeser, Triumph of theCity: How Our Greatest Invention Makes Us Richer, Smarter, Greener, Healthier, andHappier (London: Macmillan, 2011);  ,  .       , , ,  (:   , 2014).




74


Jan K.Brueckner, Shihe Fu Yizhen Gu, andJunfu Zhang, Measuring theStringency ofLand Use Regulation: TheCase ofChinas Building Height Limits, Review ofEconomics andStatistics99, no. 4(2017) 663677.




75


Abhijit Banerjee andEsther Duflo, Poor Economics (New York: Public Affairs, 2011), ch. 6.




76


W.Arthur Lewis, Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies ofLabour, Manchester School 22, no. 2(1954): 139191.




77


Robert Jensen andNolan H.Miller, Keepin Em Down on theFarm: Migration andStrategic Investment inChildrens Schooling, NBER Working Paper23122, 2017.




78


Robert Jensen, Do Labor Market Opportunities Affect Young Womens Work andFamily Decisions? Experimental Evidence from India, Quarterly Journal ofEconomics 127, no. 2 (2012): 753792.




79


Bryan, Chowdhury, andMobarak, Underinvestment in aProfitable Technology.




80


Maheshwor Shrestha, Get Rich or Die Tryin: Perceived Earnings, Perceived Mortality Rate, and theValue of aStatistical Life ofPotential Work-Migrants from Nepal, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 7945, 2017.




81


Maheshwor Shrestha, Death Scares: How Potential Work-Migrants Infer Mortality Rates from Migrant Deaths, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 7946, 2017.


