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Christiana Figueres and Tom Rivett-Carnac

THE FUTURE WE CHOOSE

Text  2020 by Christina Figueres and Tom Rivett-Carnac

Published in the Russian language by arrangement with Global Optimism Ltd. and The Marsh Agency Ltd.

Russian Edition Copyright  Sindbad Publishers Ltd., 2020

    



        




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    .   ,      1930- ,    ,                 ,   [1 - Charles Keeling, The Concentration and Isotopic Abundances of Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere, Tellus 12, no. 2 (1960): 200203, https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.21533490.1960.tb01300.x (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.2153%E2%80%933490.1960.tb01300.x)-           1958 ,    : https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/ (https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/)].

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    .    - ,   ,       -.         ,  ,   ,    ,     .        [2 - David Neild, This Map Shows Where in the World Is Most Vulnerable to Climate Change, ScienceAlert, February 19, 2016, https://www.sciencealert.com/this-map-shows-the-parts-of-the-world-most-vulnerable-to-climate-change (https://www.sciencealert.com/this-map-shows-the-parts-of-the-world-most-vulnerable-to-climate-change)].       ,      ,     .        [3 -            : D. Piepgrass, How Could Global Warming Accelerate If CO2 Is Logarithmic? Skeptical Science, March 28, 2018, https://skepticalscience.com/why-global-warming-can-accelerate.html (https://skepticalscience.com/why-global-warming-can-accelerate.html)Aarne Granlund, Three Things We Must Understand About Climate Breakdown, Medium, August 30, 2017, https://medium.com/@aarnegranlund/three-things-we-dont-understand-about-climate-change-c59338a1c435.180 (https://medium.com/@aarnegranlund/three-things-we-dont-understand-about-climate-change-c59338a1c435.180)].

    ,  ,    ,       ,      ,  , ,          [4 - Neild, This Map Shows Where in the World Is Most Vulnerable to Climate Change.]. (.   ).       .    2030  2050         ,      (  )  ,    .

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 ,   ,      .    -    ,             [5 -     , : Sandra Laville, Two-thirds of Britons Want Faster Action on Climate, Poll Finds, Guardian (U.S. edition), June 19, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/19/britons-want-faster-action-climate-poll (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/19/britons-want-faster-action-climate-poll)Valerie Volcovici, Americans Demand Climate Action (As Long As It Doesnt Cost Much): Reuters Poll, Reuters, June 26, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-climatechange/americans-demand-climate-action-reuters-poll-idUSKCN1TR15W (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-climatechange/americans-demand-climate-action-reuters-poll-idUSKCN1TR15W)].       ,     ,    .



 ,            :  ,     .   :  ,  ,     .     ,      ,    ,      .

         ,    .       .     4,5  ,   ,   ,   ,  , . ,         ,   ,        [6 - Elizabeth Howell, How Long Have Humans Been on Earth? Universe Today, January 19, 2015, https://www.universetoday.com/38125/how-long-have-humans-been-on-earth/ (https://www.universetoday.com/38125/how-long-have-humans-been-on-earth/)Chelsea Harvey, Scientists Say That 6,000 Years Ago, Humans Dramatically Changed How Nature Works, Washington Post, December 16, 2015, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/12/16/humans-dramatically-changed-how-nature-works-6000-years-ago/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/12/16/humans-dramatically-changed-how-nature-works-6000-years-ago/)].

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      ,       [7 - Margherita Giuzio, Dejan Krusec, Anouk Levels, Ana Sofia Melo,et al., Climate Change and Financial Stability, Financial Stability Review, May 2019, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/fsr/special/html/ecb.fsrart201905_1~47cf778cc1.en.html (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/fsr/special/html/ecb.fsrart201905_1~47cf778cc1.en.html)].  ,         :            ,  [8 - Megan Mahajan, Plunging Prices Mean Building New Renewable Energy Is Cheaper Than Running Existing Coal, Forbes, December 3, 2018 (updated May 6, 2019), https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyinnovation/2018/12/03/plunging-prices-mean-building-new-renewable-energy-is-cheaper-than-running-existing-coal/#61a0db2631f3 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyinnovation/2018/12/03/plunging-prices-mean-building-new-renewable-energy-is-cheaper-than-running-existing-coal/#61a0db2631f3)].         ,     . -,       ,   [9 - Fossil Free, What Is Fossil Fuel Divestment? https://gofossilfree.org/divestment/what-is-fossil-fuel-divestment/ (https://gofossilfree.org/divestment/what-is-fossil-fuel-divestment/)].            ,     .  ,    ,         ,      [10 - Chris Flood, Climate Change Poses Challenge to Long-Term Investors, Financial Times, April 22, 2019, https://www.ft.com/content/992ba12a-c02a-3bca-b947-0e2fbc5e91b7.181 (https://www.ft.com/content/992ba12a-c02a-3bca-b947-0e2fbc5e91b7.181)].

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   ,    .   ,     .  ,        ,          .      2,6  .  ,   ,    ,     ,      ,                ,        1C[11 -    , , : Michael Marshall, The History of Ice on Earth, New Scientist, May 24, 2010, https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18949-the-history-of-ice-on-earth/ (https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18949-the-history-of-ice-on-earth/)].

        ,               .      ,        ,    ,   ,         .       ,       7,7 [12 -    9,7    2050 . United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Growing at a Slower Pace, World Population Is Expected to Reach 9.7 Billion in 2050 and Could Peak at Nearly 11 Billion around 2100, June 17, 2019, https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/world-population-prospects-2019.html (https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/world-population-prospects-2019.html)].

     ,   .        [13 - Daniel Christian Wahl, Learning from Nature and Designing as Nature: Regenerative Cultures Create Conditions Conducive to Life, Biomimicry Institute, September 6, 2016, https://biomimicry.org/learning-nature-designing-nature-regenerative-cultures-create-conditions-conducive-life/ (https://biomimicry.org/learning-nature-designing-nature-regenerative-cultures-create-conditions-conducive-life/)].     [14 -             .    . History.com, Industrial Revolution, July 1, 2019 (updated September 9, 2019), https://www.history.com/topics/industrial-revolution/ (https://www.history.com/topics/industrial-revolution/),   Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser, Fossil Fuels, Our World in Data, https://ourworldindata.org/fossil-fuels (https://ourworldindata.org/fossil-fuels),     .].

                  .  ,    ,     .                     , ,       [15 - National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Changes in the Carbon Cycle, NASA Earth Observatory, June 16, 2011, https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/CarbonCycle/page4.php (https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/CarbonCycle/page4.php)].      ,   , ,           .              12  .   ,          ,    [16 - Rmi dAnnunzio, Marieke Sandker, Yelena Finegold, and Zhang Min, Projecting Global Forest Area Towards 2030, Forest Ecology and Management 352 (2015): 124133, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112715001346 (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112715001346)John Vidal, We Are Destroying Rainforests So Quickly They May Be Gone in 100 Years, Guardian (U.S. edition), January 23, 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2017/jan/23/destroying-rainforests-quickly-gone-100-years-deforestation (https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2017/jan/23/destroying-rainforests-quickly-gone-100-years-deforestation)].      , , ,        60%.    ,         [17 - Josh Gabbatiss, Earth Will Take Millions of Years to Recover from Climate Change Mass Extinction, Study Suggests, Independent, April 8, 2019, https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/mass-extinction-recovery-earth-climate-change-biodiversity-loss-evolution-a8860326.html (https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/mass-extinction-recovery-earth-climate-change-biodiversity-loss-evolution-a8860326.html)].   , 12%      ,        [18 - Richard Gray, Sixth Mass Extinction Could Destroy Life as We Know It  Biodiversity Expert, Horizon, March 4, 2019, https://horizon-magazine.eu/article/sixth-mass-extinction-could-destroy-life-we-know-it-biodiversity-expert.html (https://horizon-magazine.eu/article/sixth-mass-extinction-could-destroy-life-we-know-it-biodiversity-expert.html)Gabbatiss, Earth Will Take Millions of Years.].  90%  ,       ,  [19 - LuAnn Dahlman and Rebecca Lindsey, Climate Change: Ocean Heat Content, Climate.gov, August 1, 2018, https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content)].        [20 - Lauren E. James, Half of the Great Barrier Reef Is Dead, National Geographic, August 2018, https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2018/08/explore-atlas-great-barrier-reef-coral-bleaching-map-climate-change/ (https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2018/08/explore-atlas-great-barrier-reef-coral-bleaching-map-climate-change/)],      ,       ,  [21 - T.Schoolmeester, H. L. Gjerdi, J. Crump, et al., Global Linkages: A Graphic Look at the Changing Arctic, Rev. 1 (Nairobi and Arendal: UN Environment and GRID-Arendal, 2019), http://www.grida.no/publications/431 (http://www.grida.no/publications/431)].           ,       ,         [22 - National Aeronautics and Space Administration, As Seas Rise, NASA Zeros In: How Much? How Fast? August 3, 2017, https://www.nasa.gov/goddard/risingseas (https://www.nasa.gov/goddard/risingseas)].  ,                    ,        ,     .            [23 - Joseph Stromberg, What Is the Anthropocene and Are We in It? Smithsonian, January 2013, https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/what-is-the-anthropocene-and-are-we-in-it-164801414/ (https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/what-is-the-anthropocene-and-are-we-in-it-164801414/)].

 ,   ,     ,       [24 -     Darrell Moellendorf, Progress, Destruction, and the Anthropocene, Social Philosophy and Policy 34, no. 2 (2017): 6688. .    Anthropocene: The Human Epoch, 2018, https://theanthropocene.org/film/ (https://theanthropocene.org/film/)].      ,                .

     .

  ,     ,     - .        ,      .  -    .  ,    ,      .         ,   .       .

  ,          ,    ; ,     ,       .     ,       0,9C        .            ,       ,            2C,      1,5C.      2015  184    ,       ,               ,              .

     ;      .



 ,    ,         3 [25 -       .].      , ,     .  ,            ,     2015 ,     ,   2100       3,7C.        ,    4  5 . (. ). ,   .             ,  ,          ,   ,           ,      .



,    ,   Š   1,5C[26 -    1,5        .].             .           ,        ,      .    ,      1,5C   ,     .         50% (       ),    2030           ,  2040-   ,     2050     [27 -   . Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5C, 2018, https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/ (https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/)].           ,          ,     2020 ,                .

 ,   ,    ,       ,           .      ,       ,     .

     ,    ,  .   ,  ,  ,      ,      .    ,     ,        [28 - Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Rob Swart, eds., Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2000), https://www.ipcc.ch/report/emissions-scenarios/ (https://www.ipcc.ch/report/emissions-scenarios/)],      .          ,           ,        .




 2

,   


 2050-.           2015 .    ,    2100        3 .



,   ,  .

        ,       .    ,    .  ,        ,    .     ,      .              . ,       ,      .     ,    ,   ,   .                       (      )[29 - Department of Public Health, Environmental and Social Determinants of Health, World Health Organization, Ambient Air Pollution: Health Impacts, https://www.who.int/airpollution/ambient/health-impacts/en/ (https://www.who.int/airpollution/ambient/health-impacts/en/)].

      -   [30 - Greenpeace Southeast Asia, Latest Air Pollution Data Ranks Worlds Cities Worst to Best, March 5, 2019, https://www.greenpeace.org/southeastasia/press/679/latest-air-pollution-data-ranks-worlds-cities-worst-to-best/ (https://www.greenpeace.org/southeastasia/press/679/latest-air-pollution-data-ranks-worlds-cities-worst-to-best/)].        ,         .       ,        ,    -        .      ,   ,    .            ,          [31 - Cloud Seeding, ScienceDirect, https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/cloud-seeding (https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/cloud-seeding)]




  .


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   ,     (https://www.litres.ru/pages/biblio_book/?art=63631672)  .

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notes








1


Charles Keeling, The Concentration and Isotopic Abundances of Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere, Tellus 12, no. 2 (1960): 200203, https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.21533490.1960.tb01300.x (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.2153%E2%80%933490.1960.tb01300.x)

-           1958 ,    : https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/ (https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/)




2


David Neild, This Map Shows Where in the World Is Most Vulnerable to Climate Change, ScienceAlert, February 19, 2016, https://www.sciencealert.com/this-map-shows-the-parts-of-the-world-most-vulnerable-to-climate-change (https://www.sciencealert.com/this-map-shows-the-parts-of-the-world-most-vulnerable-to-climate-change)




3


           : D. Piepgrass, How Could Global Warming Accelerate If CO2 Is Logarithmic? Skeptical Science, March 28, 2018, https://skepticalscience.com/why-global-warming-can-accelerate.html (https://skepticalscience.com/why-global-warming-can-accelerate.html)

Aarne Granlund, Three Things We Must Understand About Climate Breakdown, Medium, August 30, 2017, https://medium.com/@aarnegranlund/three-things-we-dont-understand-about-climate-change-c59338a1c435.180 (https://medium.com/@aarnegranlund/three-things-we-dont-understand-about-climate-change-c59338a1c435.180)




4


Neild, This Map Shows Where in the World Is Most Vulnerable to Climate Change.




5


    , : Sandra Laville, Two-thirds of Britons Want Faster Action on Climate, Poll Finds, Guardian (U.S. edition), June 19, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/19/britons-want-faster-action-climate-poll (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/19/britons-want-faster-action-climate-poll)

Valerie Volcovici, Americans Demand Climate Action (As Long As It Doesnt Cost Much): Reuters Poll, Reuters, June 26, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-climatechange/americans-demand-climate-action-reuters-poll-idUSKCN1TR15W (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-climatechange/americans-demand-climate-action-reuters-poll-idUSKCN1TR15W)




6


Elizabeth Howell, How Long Have Humans Been on Earth? Universe Today, January 19, 2015, https://www.universetoday.com/38125/how-long-have-humans-been-on-earth/ (https://www.universetoday.com/38125/how-long-have-humans-been-on-earth/)

Chelsea Harvey, Scientists Say That 6,000 Years Ago, Humans Dramatically Changed How Nature Works, Washington Post, December 16, 2015, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/12/16/humans-dramatically-changed-how-nature-works-6000-years-ago/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/12/16/humans-dramatically-changed-how-nature-works-6000-years-ago/)




7


Margherita Giuzio, Dejan Krusec, Anouk Levels, Ana Sofia Melo,et al., Climate Change and Financial Stability, Financial Stability Review, May 2019, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/fsr/special/html/ecb.fsrart201905_1~47cf778cc1.en.html (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/fsr/special/html/ecb.fsrart201905_1~47cf778cc1.en.html)




8


Megan Mahajan, Plunging Prices Mean Building New Renewable Energy Is Cheaper Than Running Existing Coal, Forbes, December 3, 2018 (updated May 6, 2019), https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyinnovation/2018/12/03/plunging-prices-mean-building-new-renewable-energy-is-cheaper-than-running-existing-coal/#61a0db2631f3 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyinnovation/2018/12/03/plunging-prices-mean-building-new-renewable-energy-is-cheaper-than-running-existing-coal/#61a0db2631f3)




9


Fossil Free, What Is Fossil Fuel Divestment? https://gofossilfree.org/divestment/what-is-fossil-fuel-divestment/ (https://gofossilfree.org/divestment/what-is-fossil-fuel-divestment/)




10


Chris Flood, Climate Change Poses Challenge to Long-Term Investors, Financial Times, April 22, 2019, https://www.ft.com/content/992ba12a-c02a-3bca-b947-0e2fbc5e91b7.181 (https://www.ft.com/content/992ba12a-c02a-3bca-b947-0e2fbc5e91b7.181)




11


   , , : Michael Marshall, The History of Ice on Earth, New Scientist, May 24, 2010, https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18949-the-history-of-ice-on-earth/ (https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18949-the-history-of-ice-on-earth/)




12


   9,7    2050 . United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Growing at a Slower Pace, World Population Is Expected to Reach 9.7 Billion in 2050 and Could Peak at Nearly 11 Billion around 2100, June 17, 2019, https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/world-population-prospects-2019.html (https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/world-population-prospects-2019.html)




13


Daniel Christian Wahl, Learning from Nature and Designing as Nature: Regenerative Cultures Create Conditions Conducive to Life, Biomimicry Institute, September 6, 2016, https://biomimicry.org/learning-nature-designing-nature-regenerative-cultures-create-conditions-conducive-life/ (https://biomimicry.org/learning-nature-designing-nature-regenerative-cultures-create-conditions-conducive-life/)




14


            .    . History.com, Industrial Revolution, July 1, 2019 (updated September 9, 2019), https://www.history.com/topics/industrial-revolution/ (https://www.history.com/topics/industrial-revolution/),   Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser, Fossil Fuels, Our World in Data, https://ourworldindata.org/fossil-fuels (https://ourworldindata.org/fossil-fuels),     .




15


National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Changes in the Carbon Cycle, NASA Earth Observatory, June 16, 2011, https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/CarbonCycle/page4.php (https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/CarbonCycle/page4.php)




16


Rmi dAnnunzio, Marieke Sandker, Yelena Finegold, and Zhang Min, Projecting Global Forest Area Towards 2030, Forest Ecology and Management 352 (2015): 124133, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112715001346 (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112715001346)

John Vidal, We Are Destroying Rainforests So Quickly They May Be Gone in 100 Years, Guardian (U.S. edition), January 23, 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2017/jan/23/destroying-rainforests-quickly-gone-100-years-deforestation (https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2017/jan/23/destroying-rainforests-quickly-gone-100-years-deforestation)




17


Josh Gabbatiss, Earth Will Take Millions of Years to Recover from Climate Change Mass Extinction, Study Suggests, Independent, April 8, 2019, https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/mass-extinction-recovery-earth-climate-change-biodiversity-loss-evolution-a8860326.html (https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/mass-extinction-recovery-earth-climate-change-biodiversity-loss-evolution-a8860326.html)




18


Richard Gray, Sixth Mass Extinction Could Destroy Life as We Know It  Biodiversity Expert, Horizon, March 4, 2019, https://horizon-magazine.eu/article/sixth-mass-extinction-could-destroy-life-we-know-it-biodiversity-expert.html (https://horizon-magazine.eu/article/sixth-mass-extinction-could-destroy-life-we-know-it-biodiversity-expert.html)

Gabbatiss, Earth Will Take Millions of Years.




19


LuAnn Dahlman and Rebecca Lindsey, Climate Change: Ocean Heat Content, Climate.gov, August 1, 2018, https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content)




20


Lauren E. James, Half of the Great Barrier Reef Is Dead, National Geographic, August 2018, https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2018/08/explore-atlas-great-barrier-reef-coral-bleaching-map-climate-change/ (https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2018/08/explore-atlas-great-barrier-reef-coral-bleaching-map-climate-change/)




21


T.Schoolmeester, H. L. Gjerdi, J. Crump, et al., Global Linkages: A Graphic Look at the Changing Arctic, Rev. 1 (Nairobi and Arendal: UN Environment and GRID-Arendal, 2019), http://www.grida.no/publications/431 (http://www.grida.no/publications/431)




22


National Aeronautics and Space Administration, As Seas Rise, NASA Zeros In: How Much? How Fast? August 3, 2017, https://www.nasa.gov/goddard/risingseas (https://www.nasa.gov/goddard/risingseas)




23


Joseph Stromberg, What Is the Anthropocene and Are We in It? Smithsonian, January 2013, https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/what-is-the-anthropocene-and-are-we-in-it-164801414/ (https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/what-is-the-anthropocene-and-are-we-in-it-164801414/)




24


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25


      .




26


   1,5        .




27


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