 ,   .    ,    
 

 


 
   ,    ,    ,    ,  , ,  ,       .       ,  -   ,    .

           .      ?    ,      ?          ,    ,     ?

      .  ,     .

    .





 ,  

 ,   .    ,    



   PHD Ventures and Steven Kotler c/o Brockman, Inc.



      



  .

                    .



Text. PHD Ventures and Steven Kotler, 2020. All rights reserved.

   ,    , .  ,  , 2021


?


    ,      ,    :  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  Β,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  .



               .     . ,       ,   .         . -   .    !











   1999.         XPRIZE,       .   ,  ,   .

  ,             ,     .           ,       .      ,                 .            ,   堖   .   ,   [1 - ., . .   ,   . .: , 2018. . .] 蠫 .   ,     [2 - Diamandis P. H., Kotler S. Bold: How to Go Big, Create Wealth and Impact the World. Simon & Schuster, 2015.     . . .].      ,         ;         .

,    ,         ,   ,                 ,  ,  ,   ,  ,   .      ,     :            ,    ,    ,     ,  .

        , ,  ,      ( , )  ()   (,  ).   () , , .    .             , ,    .          .

   ,     ,        ,    .    :        .

           ,     ,            .      22-   ,            .      ,  XPRIZE Bold Capital Partners,    Abundance 360   ,            .

          (          ),          Flow Research Collective,            , ..      ,   , ,    ,    .

   ,         .       ,       .         .   ,     堖    2018.,     ,        2019.     -.  ,        ,        .            ,    .

  ,          ,       .   ,          .  , ,   ,     ,      ,    .    ,   , , ,        ,    .     .




 I.   





 1. 



 

        405,    -.         - -      ,                       .

  .

 2018. -    [3 - Inrix. Global Traffic Scorecard // inrix.com/scorecard/ (http://inrix.com/scorecard/).]          ,                .     , ,   .     2018. -       Uber Elevate[4 - .: uber.com/us/en/elevate/summit/2018/ (http://uber.com/us/en/elevate/summit/2018/).],       .    Uber        .

    - -        ,   ,    .   堖   ,    .         :    - ,   , , ,  ,     .   ,    ,     䠖    -  -  , ,     .

      Uber (  )  .         Uber Air     ,      .    ,        Uber    ࠖ   , ,   .

     .

  ,      [5 -   .:youtube.com/watch?v=fmW2Y2nEW1U (http://youtube.com/watch?v%3dfmW2Y2nEW1U).]    ,  [6 -         ,         ,    ,   ,    . . .].               ,     300 .    . Uber     ,             ,    ,       .

,          ,            .   1990- .[7 - Perez S. Groupon Product Chief Jess Holden to Depart, Is Heading to a Bay Area Tech Company // TechCrunch, February 11, 2014 // techcrunch.com/2014/02/11/groupon-product-chief-jeff-holden-departs-is-headed-to-a-bay-area-tech-company/ (http://techcrunch.com/2014/02/11/groupon-product-chief-jeff-holden-departs-is-headed-to-a-bay-area-tech-company/).]     - ,       Amazon.                     .     ,   ,   .   -      Amazon Prime.      100 [8 - Green D. A Survey Found That Amazon Prime Membership Is Soaring to New Heights But One Trend Should Worry the Company // Business Insider, January 18, 2019. P. 1.],          .

      Groupon.          -,          -,     .    Groupon   Uber.     ,        ,  : UbelPool ( -), Uber Eats (    )    .  ,           Uber  ,      .

   .   ,        Uber Elevate.   .    Uber Elevate    .  ,   ,     ,   .

    2019.   [9 - Fernholz T. Are There Bubbles in Space // Quartz, July 30, 2018 // qz.com/1343920/investors-have-pumped-nearly-1-billion-into-aerospace-start-ups-this-year/ (http://qz.com/1343920/investors-have-pumped-nearly-1-billion-into-aerospace-start-ups-this-year/).]      25     .        ,   ࠖ     PowerPoint  .      :        ,      -,        .  [10 - Harris M. Larry Page Is Quietly Amassing a Flying CarEmpire // Verge, July 19, 2018 // theverge.com/2018/7/19/17586878/larry-page-flying-car-opener-kitty-hawk-cora (http://theverge.com/2018/7/19/17586878/larry-page-flying-car-opener-kitty-hawk-cora).],  CEO  Alphabet,   Google,               , Zee Aero, Opener Kitty Hawk.      ,  Boeing, Airbus, Embraer Bell Helicopter (  Bell  ,      ).             .

  .

   ,  Uber        2020.,  2023.      -.    :          .

 ?    .

   ()    젖   ,   (  , , ,   .),  37   [11 - AAA. AAA Reveals True Cost of Vehicle Ownership, August 23, 2017 // newsroom.aaa.com/tag/driving-cost-per-mile/ (http://newsroom.aaa.com/tag/driving-cost-per-mile/).].      [12 -    Uber       // cnet.com/roadshow/news/will-you-be-able-to-afford-uberairs-flying-car-service/ (http://cnet.com/roadshow/news/will-you-be-able-to-afford-uberairs-flying-car-service/).],     ,  , 5,58.   ,   2020.[13 -    Uber       // cnet.com/roadshow/news/will-you-be-able-to-afford-uberairs-flying-car-service/ (http://cnet.com/roadshow/news/will-you-be-able-to-afford-uberairs-flying-car-service/).]  Uber Air        3,58.,     1,15.   ,    Uber,    ,   28   ࠖ     .

Uber            , eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles).  [14 -    Uber       // cnet.com/roadshow/news/will-you-be-able-to-afford-uberairs-flying-car-service/ (http://cnet.com/roadshow/news/will-you-be-able-to-afford-uberairs-flying-car-service/).]   ,  Uber      .        eVTOL,          241/      . ,   Uber,      40 (     -),   eVTOL         -    -.  Uber         eVTOL         .

          . Uber               .   [15 -  .:uber.com/us/en/elevate/partners/ (http://uber.com/us/en/elevate/partners/).]  ,   ,        /   / .      , Uber        ,       . ,    .      Uber,          7 15,       (4000 )        12,1. 


  ,          .

   ,   2027-,      (      )   ,     Uber.  2030.           .

       :   ?      2018.        ?        ,            ?

  ,  , ,          ,  ⠫   ,        DeLorean DMC-12,      ?    [16 -     ,      . .:en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vimana (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vimana).]         XI.   .        [17 -  .  .       . .: , 2016.]            .     Curtiss Autoplane 1917.,    Arrowbile 1937., 1946. Airphibian   .           .     .  .      ,   -   1960- ,    2060- .

     -     .   20       IBM     :  2000,  ,   ,    ?     .   -  . ?!  2011.            ?   :     ,     140 .

       . . . .      .         ,      .        :   ?

 ,   : .


 

  ,   ,    .      蠫       ,     ,              .    [18 - .: intel.com/content/www/us/en/silicon-innovations/moores-law-technology.html (http://intel.com/content/www/us/en/silicon-innovations/moores-law-technology.html).].  1965.  Intel    ,         18 [19 -    the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit (IC) doubles about every two years   24. . . .].   ,        ,     .

 ,   .  ,       , , ,     .    20, 40,     60.    ,         ,            1970-.

   .

         ࠖ        , 2023.        ,    [20 - Kurzweil R. How to Create a Mind. Viking, 2012. Pp. 179198.] ( 10


   ).    25,    ,                 .

   ,        .  1990- .   Google   ,      ,     頖            ,          .

 ,     ,       ,       ,      .      [21 - Kurzweil R. The Law of Accelerating Returns, March 7, 2001 // kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns (http://kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns).].  ,      ,     ,         :  ,  , , , , , , , 3D-,  ,  ,    .

           堖      .     ,            ()  . ,           ,      ,        ,       .  ,    ,       -  ,   ,     .

        ,     [22 -  . .  .  -     . .:  , 2019.].            ,     .     ,     .     ,   蠖  ,   Netflix,  ,    Blockbuster,      ,   ,        .

   . ,       ,                .        ,                :     ?

       ,    eVTOL,      Uber: ,   .       ,   80   ,    1939.      .           Uber.       ,       .   Bell, Uber, Airbus, Embraer             ?

    : .

    ,    -   ,      .         ,    --,    ,    .   ,      , ,  ,      .

  ,               堖          ,        ,      .   ,        .     ,        .     ,    240    .  , ,  .  ,    -           .

      (distributed electric propulsion, DEP[23 - Moore M. Distributed Electric Propulsion Aircraft // Nasa Langley Research Center // aero.larc.nasa.gov/files/2012/11/Distributed-Electric-Propulsion-Aircraft.pdf (http://aero.larc.nasa.gov/files/2012/11/Distributed-Electric-Propulsion-Aircraft.pdf).]).

            (    ,  )     :  ,       .         : -,           [24 -     . . . .]; -,         ,     ,         ,   ; , , -,   蠖   3D-    ,      . , ,  :   頖 95%[25 -  ,        90  98%;        .:Nice K., Strickland J. Gasoline and Battery Power Efficiency // How Stuff Works // auto.howstuffworks.com/fuel-efficiency/alternative-fuels/fuel-cell4.htm (http://auto.howstuffworks.com/fuel-efficiency/alternative-fuels/fuel-cell4.htm).]   28%   . ?

   DEP,   ,   .          . DEP-   ;  ,   .      ? ,         .

-,          ,     ,  -              , ,    . -,            ,        .     GPS (  ), [26 - LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging)       ,            ,           . . .], ,       ( ).       .

,  .     ,       ꠖ  ,      ,    ,   ,   ,           .   [27 -  , Nice K., Strickland J. Gasoline and Battery Power Efficiency // How Stuff Works // auto.howstuffworks.com/fuel-efficiency/alternative-fuels/fuel-cell4.htm (http://auto.howstuffworks.com/fuel-efficiency/alternative-fuels/fuel-cell4.htm).]        350? .      .          ,     ,       .     - ,    ,     ࠖ  ,     .

,       ࠖ   젖  ;   ,      .          Uber  eVTOL. ,     Uber,      ,             ,            B-24 Liberator 18. ;         63.      [28 - Staff at Henry Ford. Willow Run Bomber Plant // thehenryford.org/collections-and-research/digital-collections/expert-sets/101765/ (http://thehenryford.org/collections-and-research/digital-collections/expert-sets/101765/).].

         ,          ,       .            ,      ,      .       ,    ,  ,        ,   , ,   . , 3D-             ,       .  ,   ,     .

       . , ,      ,           ,                . ,  ,       .  ,        -        (      ).     ,    -   ,  .

 ,    , ,          ?,     .      .     .

    ,     .    ,  ,     ,          .      ,     .             .         .  -     ,       (      ).        .    ?       .     㠖                    ,  ,   .

   -      ,       .     : ⠫  [29 - Staff at Henry Ford. Willow Run Bomber Plant // thehenryford.org/collections-and-research/digital-collections/expert-sets/101765/ (http://thehenryford.org/collections-and-research/digital-collections/expert-sets/101765/).]       ,           ,        20. .             ,       .  ,    ,               , ,   ,        .      .

,  蠖   .


  

 

        .     頖   ,        蠖       .

           XIX,     1908.,       Ford Model [30 - History.com editors. Ford Motor Company Unveils the Model T // History, August 27, 2009 // history.com/this-day-in-history/ford-motor-company-unveils-the-model-t (http://history.com/this-day-in-history/ford-motor-company-unveils-the-model-t).].  -  [31 - Kolbert E. Hosed // NewYorker, November 8, 2009.]      -     ,  .    ,         ,   ,       .        蠖   ,    ,      .

     ,    ,      ,    ,    : , - ,    ,     ,    ,       , ,  ,    .      ,   㠖  , ,       ,          ,     .

  ,   젖 American Wonder[32 - Kroger F. Automated Driving in Its Social, Historical and Cultural Contexts // Autonomous Driving, May 22, 2016. Pp. 4168.],       - 1920- .,          -.              . -     1980- .;       1990- .     2004[33 -    .   DARPA: darpa.mil/about-us/timeline/-grand-challenge-for-autonomous-vehicles (http://darpa.mil/about-us/timeline/-grand-challenge-for-autonomous-vehicles).],  DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency,     - ),     -,      蠖 DARPA Grand Challenge.

     .                       .   2019.      [34 - Madrigal A. Waymos Robots Drove More Miles Than Everyone Else Combined // Atlantic, February 14, 2009 // theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2019/02/the-latest-self-driving-car-statistics-from-california/582763/ (http://theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2019/02/the-latest-self-driving-car-statistics-from-california/582763/).]    .     BMW, Mercedes Toyota          Apple, Google ( Waymo), Uber Tesla,    ,      .

   Waymo, ,    ,        .       ,      2009.,          DARPA Grand Challenge  [35 -  2005.    Stanley,     . . .].     -,        Waymo.   ,   2018., Waymo   [36 - Hawkins A. Waymo and Jaguar Will Build Up to 20,000 Self-Driving Electric SUVs // Verge, March 27, 2018 // theverge.com/2018/3/27/17165992/waymo-jaguar-i-pace-self-driving-ny-auto-show-2018 (http://theverge.com/2018/3/27/17165992/waymo-jaguar-i-pace-self-driving-ny-auto-show-2018).] 20.   Jaguar     .     Waymo  2020.       (     ,  ,  Uber 2019.  15   ).  ,     ,  ,       ,       ,        ,     .

Ѡ2009.  Waymo   16 . ʠ2020. 20. Jaguar,      , Waymo        .    .   ,     :    ,   ..     ,       蠖       .

 General Motors   Waymo[37 - .  - General Motors: media.gm.com/media/us/en/gm/news.detail.html/content/Pages/news/us/en/2018/may/0531-gm-cruise.html (http://media.gm.com/media/us/en/gm/news.detail.html/content/Pages/news/us/en/2018/may/0531-gm-cruise.html).]     .  2018.   1,1 .    GM Cruise.    GM   2,25 .     Softbank     ,  Softbank  15%-    Uber.       , ,          -?

,   [38 -    .],    (     ,   Uber     -).  10%       ,    .   - 堖       ,    .   ,  ,     , ,     .

     .               ,     ,             ,   ,   ,         , ,          .           ,       ,         . -       .             .           .      . :       .

  .           :  ,     .      80% ,    [39 -    .],          -.  ࠖ  .        [40 - U.S. Census Bureau. Average One Way Commuting Time by Metropolitan Areas, December 7, 2017 // census.gov/library/visualizations/interactive/travel-time.html (http://census.gov/library/visualizations/interactive/travel-time.html).]    50,8 , ,  ,      , ,     .

       ,    ,   ,   ,     ,     .  2019.        [41 -    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_car_brands (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_car_brands)      ,  ,     .].        ,     ,  .

       [ ] .   [42 -  .     // publications.hse.ru/books/201793177 (http://publications.hse.ru/books/201793177).]     5% ,      ,  ,   .  ,          .      ,             .

   .    ,         ,          .        ࠖ   ,   .    ,      .      ,             ,     ,      Uber  Lyft. ,          ,    ,   ,  ,    .

, -  ,   .     [43 - Florida R. Parking Has Eaten American Cities // CityLab, July 24, 2018.].      [44 - Ben-Joseph E. ReThinking a Lot. MIT Press, 2012. Pp. xi xix.] (MIT)  -     ,            ,          ,    -,  .      --        ,   ,          ,         .          .     ,            ,      ,  ,    .



  Hyperloop ([45 -   Hyperloop ()   ,       .  ࠖ 仠   ,    ,                     1200/. . .])

     -             .          ,        161/.           Virgin Hyperloop One,     386/.   堖        ,        - -    ,       .

Hyperloop,  ,   [46 -    : spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/hyperloop_alpha.pdf (http://spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/hyperloop_alpha.pdf).]  ,    ,         .                SpaceX    Tesla. SpaceX        ,      .     Tesla,      ,   ,           .       ,      .

,        ,      .

 2013.           -  - -   68 .     ,          .     . ,   ,   ,    .     -  SpaceX Tesla     58-   TheHyperloop    ,       ,            1200/.               35 ,      .

 ,     .   -          ,      .  1909.       [47 - Browne M. New Funds Fuel Magnet Power for Trains // NewYork Times, March 3, 1992.]    ,  Hyperloop.  1972.  RAND[48 - Salter R. The Very High Speed Transit // Rand Corporation, 1972 // rand.org/pubs/papers/P4874.html (http://rand.org/pubs/papers/P4874.html).]         . ,       ,          .

 ,        .        .   2013.[49 -      Hyperloop One .:hyperloop-one.com/our-story#partner-program (http://hyperloop-one.com/our-story#partner-program) (  ࠖ  ).]            ,   -       .   , ꠖ .    ,     ,     ,     .           ,   Hyperloop One.  -   (    ),  ,           ,        .          Virgin Group,     Virgin Hyperloop One.      .

        .  ,      Hyperloop One  [50 -    , 2019.],      ,   ,  ,  3D-.          ,         .     , 3D-   ⠖        頖         .

     ,     ,     ,    Hyperloop One.    35.  蠖 25.   , 2023. Hyperloop   . ʠ2025.,   ,           .

   :      頖 2020.    Hyperloop   㠖 2023. ʠ2025.         .       . Ƞ    .


The Boring Company[51 - The Boring Company    ,      2016. . .]

 -       , 27 ,   - SpaceX.         35, 17 2016. ( ,              )       . 405-   ,    ,       . ,     [52 - .: twitter.com/elonmusk (http://twitter.com/elonmusk).].



@elonmusk (https://twitter.com/elonmusk) 17. 2016:    , ,   . -      

@elonmusk (https://twitter.com/elonmusk) 17. 2016:     젖 The Boring Company (     ⠖ boring   ,  ).

@elonmusk (https://twitter.com/elonmusk) 17. 2016:     .

@elonmusk (https://twitter.com/elonmusk) 17. 2016: ,     .


  .

  ,  20,    -11,    :    -      Hyperloop -ꠖ .  ..   . 29..  2018. The Boring Company,     113 .  [53 - Hull D. Musks Boring Co. Raises $113 Million for Tunnels, Hyperloop // Bloomberg, April 16, 2018 // bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-16/musk-s-boring-co-raises-113-million-for-tunnels-and-hyperloop (http://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-16/musk-s-boring-co-raises-113-million-for-tunnels-and-hyperloop).],    .         , -   ,   16,6-  ,      .

       Hyperloop   Hyperloop,         ,         240/,  ,    1200/.

 ,             [54 - Marshall A. Las Vegas Orders Up a Boring Company Loop // Wired, May 22, 2019.]        - -堖   ,    CES-2021,       2021.          ,   ,    ,  TheBoring Company    .

,       ,       Tesla        [55 - Oswald E. Heres Everything You Need to Know About the Boring Company // Digital Trends, February 26, 2019.],     ,      .

    :           .      Hyperloop    The Boring Company         Uber,     ,     Waymo,       ,          .        ,   ,   ,  ,     .


: -   

 -,      ,   ,   2017.       ,       [56 -      . .:youtube.com/watch?v=tdUX3ypDVwI (http://youtube.com/watch?v%3dtdUX3ypDVwI).],                     -.

        -,    5000-  ,   . -           Starship,    SpaceX    .  ,           ,               蠖 -   - .

Starship     28163,5/.        Concorde.   ,   : -    39.  頖 29.     22.  , ?

  :    Starship?

 []   , , -   ,  .   -    ,     .   .     .      ,    .

   .   2017.         [57 - Etherington D. SpaceX aims to Replace Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy and Dragon with One Spaceship // Techcrunch, September 28. 2017 // techcrunch.com/2017/09/28/spacex-aims-to-replace-falcon-9-falcon-heavy-and-dragon-with-one-spaceship/ (http://techcrunch.com/2017/09/28/spacex-aims-to-replace-falcon-9-falcon-heavy-and-dragon-with-one-spaceship/).],   -   Falcon 9  -   Falcon Heavy,  2020- .     Starship.    ,   -  [58 - .: twitter.com/mayorofla (http://twitter.com/mayorofla).] ,   SpaceX         7,3    .  2019.     :     [59 - .: spacenews.com/spacex-begins-starship-hopper-testing/ (http://spacenews.com/spacex-begins-starship-hopper-testing/).] .  ,   , ,       .


    

     .                  :    ,      .      ,    /,       堖  .

     . .  ,     :       ?   .    .   ?    ?

     ?

    ,     : 2006.    .   Sears  14,3 .[60 -   (, ,  )  : macrotrends.net (http://macrotrends.net/).           .], Target 38,2 .[61 -   (, ,  )  : macrotrends.net (http://macrotrends.net/).           .], Walmart  158 .[62 -   (, ,  )  : macrotrends.net (http://macrotrends.net/).           .]   Amazon  17,5 .[63 -   (, ,  )  : macrotrends.net (http://macrotrends.net/).           .]       .  ?

     [64 -   ,    ,     ,      .],      . ʠ2017. Sears  94% ,    0,9 .,     .  Target  :      55 .      Walmart:     243,9 .    Amazon?    The Everything Store     700 . (  800).  ,   ,   ,     .

  Amazon     , ,    頖    .               .        .

   .     - [65 - ., : DArgembeau A. Modulation of Medial Prefrontal and Inferior Parietal Cortices When Thinking About Past, Present and Future Selves // Social Neuroscience, May 2, 2010. Pp. 187200.] , ,        ,   :       .   ,     .    ,  :  .      ,     ,      .

 ,              .   -    . ,    ,   ,  .         ,       . ,    ,          ?  ,  ,    ,      ,    .

       ,    ,     .  ,       - ,   ,   .     ,             ,     ,     ,  ! 蠫  !, :   .  ,   - ,     ,      ,   ,  -     .                ,    .

  ,  .

   ()   .     ,             [66 -      .:Lepore J. Are Robots Competing for Your Job? // NewYorker, March 4, 2019.    : Ward M. AI and Robots Could Threaten Your Career Within 5 Years // CNBC, October 5, 2017 // cnbc.com/2017/10/05/report-ai-and-robots-could-change-your-career-within-5-years.html (http://cnbc.com/2017/10/05/report-ai-and-robots-could-change-your-career-within-5-years.html).]   .     ,             .       .

 ,  -   ,             .   .  ,    頖 ,  ,  ,   , ,      McKinsey Global Research[67 - Pelissie due Rausas M. Internet Matters: The Nets Sweeping Impact on Growth, Jobs, and Prosperity // McKinsey Global Institute, May 2011.],           2,6 .

        .     ,         ,     .      ,  , 蠖  ,      ,      . ,       ,      .    - (      1 .) ..     !    黠    ,    .           .

 ,  ,     .         ,        .  .       .  ,    [68 -  .,  .  .  ,  ,    . .:   , 2015.         Innosight,      , .    : innosight.com/insight/creative-destruction/ (http://innosight.com/insight/creative-destruction/).]   , 40%,     Fortune500,       ,         ,      .

    .  ࠖ  XVIII,           .      ,         .  , ,       .

 :      ?      ,        䠖         ,         .  ,     20. ,      ,        蠖            .

   :      ,  ,    ,   ,  ,      .         .

  I    ,       ,      ,     .       렖     蠖  ,              .

  II        ,        .  렖         ,    ,    , ,      ,     ,            .

  III       ,  ,    ,  ,      .          ,      頖      -  ,    ,      ࠖ  ,      ⠫--     , , .

      ,       : -   - .




  2028,       .  - ,         .     -, ,  .       ,        Uber.      ,      .

   ?   .

,     ࠖ    ,     ,       .   ,    ,   Uber,        .

         Hyperloop,  ,           .   Uber Elevate ( Uber)      ,       .       ,       Uber,      -.          59.

 ,   ,     ,       ,  , , 蠖      ;     .  ,     ,         .

-,   - .

 ,    ,    ,    ,     . ,                ? ,           : - , .

   ,   .

   , ,  ,  - .            .                 ,  Second Life     ,     .           ,            .      ,    .       ,     .       ,     ,     ,       ,      -.

  ⠖ .    ,       . ,  -        ࠖ      ࠖ         -.   ,    ,       ,        .     ,    -,            , ,       .

 ,     ,     ,   . , 2018.  All Nippon Airways[69 -     .:avatar.xprize.org/prizes/avatar (http://avatar.xprize.org/prizes/avatar).] (ANA)  10 .       - ANA Avatar XPRIZE.  , ?  ANA ,      , ,   ,     ,  ,    ,      .

      .          .   ,        ,   ,     ,       .        .       ,  ,   ,    ,      Hyperloop    .     .  ,        .

   ,    ,   .




 2.    :  



 

    [70 -      .]    . -,           .   堖    ,   273,147?,   0,003   .

  1995  [71 - Public Information Office, Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Boomerang Nebula Boasts Coolest Spot in the Universe, June 20, 1997.  -       (NASA/JPL) .:jpl.nasa.gov/news/releases/97/coldspot.html (http://jpl.nasa.gov/news/releases/97/coldspot.html).]      272?.   ,               . ,  ,        堖  ,            ,     , ,      .

  ?

         :  ,  .  [72 -   ,        .      .     ()       (0  1),            . . . .]    ,  .    ,   / (/),     ,        . ,   ,    ,  .      ?   ,            .     . ,      .

   .   .          ,             .   : IBM-  Deep Blue[73 - Harding L., Barden L. Deep Blue Win a Giant Step for Computerkind // Guardian, May 12, 2011.],        ,    200  .          .

   Rigetti Computing   ,                  .        컠  ,     ,   ,      ,    Google, IBM Microsoft,     ,   . ,   Rigetti.

    2013.       ,       ,   ,    ,      .        IBM,      119 .  ,      . ,    ,         .   ⠖        :    .

        ,    .     ࠖ   60    .   [74 -  .,  .   . ,       . .: , 2017.]           (FLOPS),       [75 -    頖     ,        (),         ,       (). ,  1234,5 1,2345   ,   .    頖   ,      . . . .].  1956.          .  2015.      (10


) .         ,   .

       [76 - Eeckhout L. Is Moores Law Slowing Down? What Next? IEEE Micro. Vol. 37. No. 4. Pp. 45.].    .           ,    ,      .  1971.     10. . ʠ2000.   -   .      ,   -  [77 - 10. ⠖    1970- .  ,        ,  .       ,  ,  . ,   Intel  2000- .  14-      70 . . . .].                ,         ,     .        ,      .

 ,  .

    [78 - Kurzweil, Law of Accelerating Returns.],      ,    /,      [79 -        . . .]  .    (  )  ,     ,      1890;     Robinson  ,     Enigma, 젖    CBS,      , 堖    ,     ,          ,          .

 ,   ,      ,     .      .      ,    .     ,      ,       .     ,      ,           .           .     Apple 2018  12 Bionic[80 - .: apple.com/iphone-xs/a12-bionic/ (http://apple.com/iphone-xs/a12-bionic/).]:     -,            .

        .

 2002.  D-Wave,     ,    ,       ,    [81 -    ,     ,    , .:tim.blog/2018/05/31/steve-jurvetson/ (http://tim.blog/2018/05/31/steve-jurvetson/).].   ,     :        .         ,        ,     .

           ,   ,       .    ,   ,  .   ,  ,    ,  ,      ,        [82 -       -   2016.,  .:www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/videos/the-dawn-of-quantum-technology-with-prof-simon-benjamin/ (https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/videos/the-dawn-of-quantum-technology-with-prof-simon-benjamin/).],     ,     .       ,            .

,         .

     : []       . ,       .                    ,       [83 -   2020 DeepMind   AlphaFold 2,         ,      . . . .].  ,          .

     .      .       Rigetti Computing (rigetti.com (http://rigetti.com/)),     Forest,              .   Forest    ,    32-  Rigetti.     120 [84 -     .].

           .  ,    ,    .

       D  ,    : Digitalization, Deception, Disruption, Demonetization, Dematerialization, Democratization.  D                  .        (   ,     )           ,       .

Digitalization .      ,   ,        ,            .         ,    -       .

Deception  ( ).        , ,   , .        ,         .   ,              ,   ,      .   ,            .    .

Disruption .   ,         ,     ,   .    3D-   ,   10-  .

Demonetization .       ,         . , , .       ,       ,       .     ,      .                  .

Dematerialization .   ,    .   ,        ,    . , ,   , , GPS-, ,  ,     ,     ,  .             .     , iTunes  .   .

Democratization .  ,         .            ,        .      , , ,    ,     .

        ?           .  .  1993.         Mosaic      (     Netscape).      26 [85 - .: internetlivestats.com/total-number-of-websites/ (http://internetlivestats.com/total-number-of-websites/).].         ,     .  ,    :   ,     .     ,      .  .    ,  Forest   Rigetti       젖     ,  ,      .


 

 2014. Microsoft     -ࠖ  ࠖ Xiaoice[86 - Spencer G. Much More Than a Chat: Chinas Xiaoice Mixes AI with Emotions and Wins Over Millions of Fans // news.microsoft.com (http://news.microsoft.com/), November 1, 2018. .:news.microsoft.com/apac/features/much-more-than-a-chatbot-chinas-xiaoice-mixes-ai-with-emotions-and-wins-over-millions-of-fans/ (http://news.microsoft.com/apac/features/much-more-than-a-chatbot-chinas-xiaoice-mixes-ai-with-emotions-and-wins-over-millions-of-fans/). .: blogs.microsoft.com/ai/xiaoice-full-duplex/ (http://blogs.microsoft.com/ai/xiaoice-full-duplex/).] ( ),      .      -,       ,        .       ,   .        ,    17- ,    .  ,        ?   ,     . ,       頖       ,  ,   ,     ,  : ,  ![87 -  ,      ,      ,      Zo,   ,   Twitter  2018.]

    ,    .          30       .      60  ,       20  .

   ?   ,   ࠖ     ,     .        . ,   ,       :     ,    , ?

  ,       ,  Microsoft ,           .    ,  2015.    Dragon TV[88 - McFarland M. What Happened When a Chinese TV Station Replaced Its Meteorologist with a Chatbot // Washington Post, January 12, 2016.]         .    ,      ,    .




  .


   .

   ,     (https://www.litres.ru/pages/biblio_book/?art=64844602)  .

      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .



notes








1


., . .   ,   . .: , 2018. . .




2


Diamandis P. H., Kotler S. Bold: How to Go Big, Create Wealth and Impact the World. Simon & Schuster, 2015.     . . .




3


Inrix. Global Traffic Scorecard // inrix.com/scorecard/ (http://inrix.com/scorecard/).




4


.: uber.com/us/en/elevate/summit/2018/ (http://uber.com/us/en/elevate/summit/2018/).




5


  .:youtube.com/watch?v=fmW2Y2nEW1U (http://youtube.com/watch?v%3dfmW2Y2nEW1U).




6


        ,         ,    ,   ,    . . .




7


Perez S. Groupon Product Chief Jess Holden to Depart, Is Heading to a Bay Area Tech Company // TechCrunch, February 11, 2014 // techcrunch.com/2014/02/11/groupon-product-chief-jeff-holden-departs-is-headed-to-a-bay-area-tech-company/ (http://techcrunch.com/2014/02/11/groupon-product-chief-jeff-holden-departs-is-headed-to-a-bay-area-tech-company/).




8


Green D. A Survey Found That Amazon Prime Membership Is Soaring to New Heights But One Trend Should Worry the Company // Business Insider, January 18, 2019. P. 1.




9


Fernholz T. Are There Bubbles in Space // Quartz, July 30, 2018 // qz.com/1343920/investors-have-pumped-nearly-1-billion-into-aerospace-start-ups-this-year/ (http://qz.com/1343920/investors-have-pumped-nearly-1-billion-into-aerospace-start-ups-this-year/).




10


Harris M. Larry Page Is Quietly Amassing a Flying CarEmpire // Verge, July 19, 2018 // theverge.com/2018/7/19/17586878/larry-page-flying-car-opener-kitty-hawk-cora (http://theverge.com/2018/7/19/17586878/larry-page-flying-car-opener-kitty-hawk-cora).




11


AAA. AAA Reveals True Cost of Vehicle Ownership, August 23, 2017 // newsroom.aaa.com/tag/driving-cost-per-mile/ (http://newsroom.aaa.com/tag/driving-cost-per-mile/).




12


   Uber       // cnet.com/roadshow/news/will-you-be-able-to-afford-uberairs-flying-car-service/ (http://cnet.com/roadshow/news/will-you-be-able-to-afford-uberairs-flying-car-service/).




13


   Uber       // cnet.com/roadshow/news/will-you-be-able-to-afford-uberairs-flying-car-service/ (http://cnet.com/roadshow/news/will-you-be-able-to-afford-uberairs-flying-car-service/).




14


   Uber       // cnet.com/roadshow/news/will-you-be-able-to-afford-uberairs-flying-car-service/ (http://cnet.com/roadshow/news/will-you-be-able-to-afford-uberairs-flying-car-service/).




15


 .:uber.com/us/en/elevate/partners/ (http://uber.com/us/en/elevate/partners/).




16


    ,      . .:en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vimana (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vimana).




17


 .  .       . .: , 2016.




18


.: intel.com/content/www/us/en/silicon-innovations/moores-law-technology.html (http://intel.com/content/www/us/en/silicon-innovations/moores-law-technology.html).




19


   the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit (IC) doubles about every two years   24. . . .




20


Kurzweil R. How to Create a Mind. Viking, 2012. Pp. 179198.




21


Kurzweil R. The Law of Accelerating Returns, March 7, 2001 // kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns (http://kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns).




22


 . .  .  -     . .:  , 2019.




23


Moore M. Distributed Electric Propulsion Aircraft // Nasa Langley Research Center // aero.larc.nasa.gov/files/2012/11/Distributed-Electric-Propulsion-Aircraft.pdf (http://aero.larc.nasa.gov/files/2012/11/Distributed-Electric-Propulsion-Aircraft.pdf).




24


    . . . .




25


 ,        90  98%;        .:Nice K., Strickland J. Gasoline and Battery Power Efficiency // How Stuff Works // auto.howstuffworks.com/fuel-efficiency/alternative-fuels/fuel-cell4.htm (http://auto.howstuffworks.com/fuel-efficiency/alternative-fuels/fuel-cell4.htm).




26


LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging)       ,            ,           . . .




27


 , Nice K., Strickland J. Gasoline and Battery Power Efficiency // How Stuff Works // auto.howstuffworks.com/fuel-efficiency/alternative-fuels/fuel-cell4.htm (http://auto.howstuffworks.com/fuel-efficiency/alternative-fuels/fuel-cell4.htm).




28


Staff at Henry Ford. Willow Run Bomber Plant // thehenryford.org/collections-and-research/digital-collections/expert-sets/101765/ (http://thehenryford.org/collections-and-research/digital-collections/expert-sets/101765/).




29


Staff at Henry Ford. Willow Run Bomber Plant // thehenryford.org/collections-and-research/digital-collections/expert-sets/101765/ (http://thehenryford.org/collections-and-research/digital-collections/expert-sets/101765/).




30


History.com editors. Ford Motor Company Unveils the Model T // History, August 27, 2009 // history.com/this-day-in-history/ford-motor-company-unveils-the-model-t (http://history.com/this-day-in-history/ford-motor-company-unveils-the-model-t).




31


Kolbert E. Hosed // NewYorker, November 8, 2009.




32


Kroger F. Automated Driving in Its Social, Historical and Cultural Contexts // Autonomous Driving, May 22, 2016. Pp. 4168.




33


   .   DARPA: darpa.mil/about-us/timeline/-grand-challenge-for-autonomous-vehicles (http://darpa.mil/about-us/timeline/-grand-challenge-for-autonomous-vehicles).




34


Madrigal A. Waymos Robots Drove More Miles Than Everyone Else Combined // Atlantic, February 14, 2009 // theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2019/02/the-latest-self-driving-car-statistics-from-california/582763/ (http://theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2019/02/the-latest-self-driving-car-statistics-from-california/582763/).




35


 2005.    Stanley,     . . .




36


Hawkins A. Waymo and Jaguar Will Build Up to 20,000 Self-Driving Electric SUVs // Verge, March 27, 2018 // theverge.com/2018/3/27/17165992/waymo-jaguar-i-pace-self-driving-ny-auto-show-2018 (http://theverge.com/2018/3/27/17165992/waymo-jaguar-i-pace-self-driving-ny-auto-show-2018).




37


.  - General Motors: media.gm.com/media/us/en/gm/news.detail.html/content/Pages/news/us/en/2018/may/0531-gm-cruise.html (http://media.gm.com/media/us/en/gm/news.detail.html/content/Pages/news/us/en/2018/may/0531-gm-cruise.html).




38


   .




39


   .




40


U.S. Census Bureau. Average One Way Commuting Time by Metropolitan Areas, December 7, 2017 // census.gov/library/visualizations/interactive/travel-time.html (http://census.gov/library/visualizations/interactive/travel-time.html).




41


   en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_car_brands (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_car_brands)      ,  ,     .




42


 .     // publications.hse.ru/books/201793177 (http://publications.hse.ru/books/201793177).




43


Florida R. Parking Has Eaten American Cities // CityLab, July 24, 2018.




44


Ben-Joseph E. ReThinking a Lot. MIT Press, 2012. Pp. xi xix.




45


  Hyperloop ()   ,       .  ࠖ 仠   ,    ,                     1200/. . .




46


   : spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/hyperloop_alpha.pdf (http://spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/hyperloop_alpha.pdf).




47


Browne M. New Funds Fuel Magnet Power for Trains // NewYork Times, March 3, 1992.




48


Salter R. The Very High Speed Transit // Rand Corporation, 1972 // rand.org/pubs/papers/P4874.html (http://rand.org/pubs/papers/P4874.html).




49


     Hyperloop One .:hyperloop-one.com/our-story#partner-program (http://hyperloop-one.com/our-story#partner-program) (  ࠖ  ).




50


   , 2019.




51


The Boring Company    ,      2016. . .




52


.: twitter.com/elonmusk (http://twitter.com/elonmusk).




53


Hull D. Musks Boring Co. Raises $113 Million for Tunnels, Hyperloop // Bloomberg, April 16, 2018 // bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-16/musk-s-boring-co-raises-113-million-for-tunnels-and-hyperloop (http://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-16/musk-s-boring-co-raises-113-million-for-tunnels-and-hyperloop).




54


Marshall A. Las Vegas Orders Up a Boring Company Loop // Wired, May 22, 2019.




55


Oswald E. Heres Everything You Need to Know About the Boring Company // Digital Trends, February 26, 2019.




56


     . .:youtube.com/watch?v=tdUX3ypDVwI (http://youtube.com/watch?v%3dtdUX3ypDVwI).




57


Etherington D. SpaceX aims to Replace Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy and Dragon with One Spaceship // Techcrunch, September 28. 2017 // techcrunch.com/2017/09/28/spacex-aims-to-replace-falcon-9-falcon-heavy-and-dragon-with-one-spaceship/ (http://techcrunch.com/2017/09/28/spacex-aims-to-replace-falcon-9-falcon-heavy-and-dragon-with-one-spaceship/).




58


.: twitter.com/mayorofla (http://twitter.com/mayorofla).




59


.: spacenews.com/spacex-begins-starship-hopper-testing/ (http://spacenews.com/spacex-begins-starship-hopper-testing/).




60


  (, ,  )  : macrotrends.net (http://macrotrends.net/).           .




61


  (, ,  )  : macrotrends.net (http://macrotrends.net/).           .




62


  (, ,  )  : macrotrends.net (http://macrotrends.net/).           .




63


  (, ,  )  : macrotrends.net (http://macrotrends.net/).           .




64


  ,    ,     ,      .




65


., : DArgembeau A. Modulation of Medial Prefrontal and Inferior Parietal Cortices When Thinking About Past, Present and Future Selves // Social Neuroscience, May 2, 2010. Pp. 187200.




66


     .:Lepore J. Are Robots Competing for Your Job? // NewYorker, March 4, 2019.    : Ward M. AI and Robots Could Threaten Your Career Within 5 Years // CNBC, October 5, 2017 // cnbc.com/2017/10/05/report-ai-and-robots-could-change-your-career-within-5-years.html (http://cnbc.com/2017/10/05/report-ai-and-robots-could-change-your-career-within-5-years.html).




67


Pelissie due Rausas M. Internet Matters: The Nets Sweeping Impact on Growth, Jobs, and Prosperity // McKinsey Global Institute, May 2011.




68


 .,  .  .  ,  ,    . .:   , 2015.         Innosight,      , .    : innosight.com/insight/creative-destruction/ (http://innosight.com/insight/creative-destruction/).




69


    .:avatar.xprize.org/prizes/avatar (http://avatar.xprize.org/prizes/avatar).




70


     .




71


Public Information Office, Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Boomerang Nebula Boasts Coolest Spot in the Universe, June 20, 1997.  -       (NASA/JPL) .:jpl.nasa.gov/news/releases/97/coldspot.html (http://jpl.nasa.gov/news/releases/97/coldspot.html).




72


  ,        .      .     ()       (0  1),            . . . .




73


Harding L., Barden L. Deep Blue Win a Giant Step for Computerkind // Guardian, May 12, 2011.




74


 .,  .   . ,       . .: , 2017.




75


   頖     ,        (),         ,       (). ,  1234,5 1,2345   ,   .    頖   ,      . . . .




76


Eeckhout L. Is Moores Law Slowing Down? What Next? IEEE Micro. Vol. 37. No. 4. Pp. 45.




77


10. ⠖    1970- .  ,        ,  .       ,  ,  . ,   Intel  2000- .  14-      70 . . . .




78


Kurzweil, Law of Accelerating Returns.




79


       . . .




80


.: apple.com/iphone-xs/a12-bionic/ (http://apple.com/iphone-xs/a12-bionic/).




81


   ,     ,    , .:tim.blog/2018/05/31/steve-jurvetson/ (http://tim.blog/2018/05/31/steve-jurvetson/).




82


      -   2016.,  .:www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/videos/the-dawn-of-quantum-technology-with-prof-simon-benjamin/ (https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/videos/the-dawn-of-quantum-technology-with-prof-simon-benjamin/).




83


  2020 DeepMind   AlphaFold 2,         ,      . . . .




84


    .




85


.: internetlivestats.com/total-number-of-websites/ (http://internetlivestats.com/total-number-of-websites/).




86


Spencer G. Much More Than a Chat: Chinas Xiaoice Mixes AI with Emotions and Wins Over Millions of Fans // news.microsoft.com (http://news.microsoft.com/), November 1, 2018. .:news.microsoft.com/apac/features/much-more-than-a-chatbot-chinas-xiaoice-mixes-ai-with-emotions-and-wins-over-millions-of-fans/ (http://news.microsoft.com/apac/features/much-more-than-a-chatbot-chinas-xiaoice-mixes-ai-with-emotions-and-wins-over-millions-of-fans/). .: blogs.microsoft.com/ai/xiaoice-full-duplex/ (http://blogs.microsoft.com/ai/xiaoice-full-duplex/).




87


 ,      ,      ,      Zo,   ,   Twitter  2018.




88


McFarland M. What Happened When a Chinese TV Station Replaced Its Meteorologist with a Chatbot // Washington Post, January 12, 2016.


