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This edition published by arrangement with InkWell Management LLC and Synopsis Literary Agency

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,    ,      .   ,      ,      [1 - Frank L. Schmidt and John Hunter, General Mental Ability in the World of Work: Occupational Attainment and Job Performance, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 86 (2004): 162173.],[2 - David C. Geary, Efficiency of Mitochondrial Functioning as the Fundamental Biological Mechanism of General Intelligence (G), Psychological Review 15 (2018): 10281050.].        .             :         [3 - Neel Burton, What Is Intelligence?, Psychology Today, November 28, 2018, www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/hide-and-seek/201811/what-is-intelligence (http://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/hide-and-seek/201811/what-is-intelligence); Charles Stangor and Jennifer Walinga, Introduction to Psychology (Victoria, BC: BCcampus, 2014); Frank L. Schmidt, The Role of Cognitive Ability and Job Performance: Why There Cannot Be a Debate, Human Performance 15 (2002): 187210.].

,     ,       ,       .      .   :       ?

    ,       .   Kaplan, ,  ,  ,  :    ,   [4 - A Systematic Approach to the GRE (NewYork: Kaplan, 1999).].    ,      [5 - Ludy T. Benjamin Jr., Timothy A. Cavell, and William R. Shallenberger III, Staying with Initial Answers on Objective Tests: Is It a Myth?, Teaching of Psychology 11 (1984): 133141.].

        .         , ,          .       (first instinct fallacy).

            1500  [6 - Justin Kruger, Derrick Wirtz, and Dale T. Miller, Counterfactual Thinking and the First Instinct Fallacy, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 88 (2005): 725735.].       ,         .           :       ,  ,  ,          .

,     ,     ,     ,       [7 - Yongnam Kim, Apples to Oranges: Causal Effects of Answer Changing in Multiple-Choice Exams, arXiv:1808.10577v4, last revised October 14, 2019, arxiv.org/abs/1808.10577 (http://arxiv.org/abs/1808.10577).].       :        ,    ,    [8 - Justin J. Couchman etal., The Instinct Fallacy: The Metacognition of Answering and Revising during College Exams, Metacognition and Learning 11 (2016): 171185.].

      ⠖     .    ,          ,  ,          [9 - Charles M. Slem, The Effects of an Educational Intervention on Answer Changing Behavior, Annual Convention of the American Psychological Association, August 1985, eric.ed.gov/?id=ED266395 (http://eric.ed.gov/?id%3dED266395).].             .

    .      :     ,     .           .   ,   .    ,     ,    ,  .      ,  ,     .

           [10 - Susan T. Fiske and Shelley E. Taylor, Social Cognition: From Brains to Culture, 2nd ed. (Los Angeles: Sage, 2013).].      .      .    ,      .       ,      .        (seezing and freezing)[11 - Arie W. Kruglanski and Donna M. Webster, Motivated Closing of the Mind: Seizing and Freezing, Psychological Review 103 (1996): 263283.].     ,    .         ,     .    ,      Windows 95,     1995-   .   ,  ,   ,   .

 , ,     ,  .           ,   [12 - James Fallows, The Boiled-Frog Myth: Stop the Lying Now!, The Atlantic, September 16, 2006, www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2006/09/the-boiled-frog-myth-stop-the-lying-now/7446/ (http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2006/09/the-boiled-frog-myth-stop-the-lying-now/7446/).].         ,     .

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  ,  -    .         ,  ,      . ,        ,  .               [13 - Norman Maclean, Young Men and Fire, 25th anniversary ed. (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2017); . www.nifc.gov/safety/mann_gulch/event_timeline/event6.htm (http://www.nifc.gov/safety/mann_gulch/event_timeline/event6.htm).],          ,    Young Men and Fire (  ),   .      -,       ,     .

   ,   ,  ,    .        ,     .

       ,  [14 - Barry M. Staw, Lance E. Sandelands, and Jane E. Dutton, Threat Rigidity Effects in Organizational Behavior: A Multilevel Analysis, Administrative Science Quarterly 26 (1981): 501524; Karl E. Weick, The Collapse of SenseMaking in Organizations: The Mann Gulch Disaster, Administrative Science Quarterly 38 (1993): 62852.].      ,    ,    .    ,    .  ,    ,    .        .    ,  :     .

        堖       .     .       ,        .  ,       ,      ,      .

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  ,  :         1520% [17 - Ted Putnam, Analysis of Escape Efforts and Personal Protective Equipment on the South Canyon Fire, Wildfire 4 (1995): 3439.].   ,    [18 - Ted Putnam, The Collapse of Decision Making and Organizational Structure on Storm King Mountain, Wildfire 4 (1995): 4045.],     .      ,               [19 - Report of the South Canyon Fire Accident Investigation Team, August 17, 1994.].

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   ,        ,       .          .      ,  ,        ,     ,   ,       ࠖ  :     ?[20 - Karl E. Weick, Drop Your Tools: An Allegory for Organizational Studies, Administrative Science Quarterly 41 (1996): 30113.]

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,  ,    ,         .        [25 - Jacquie McNish and Sean Silcoff, Losing the Signal: The Untold Story behind the Extraordinary Rise and Spectacular Fall of BlackBerry (NewYork: Flatiron Books, 2015).].          .      .            ,          .     ,    , ,       ,  .  ,  ,      .

            ,     ,    蠫   .        ,          [26 - 100 Fastest-Growing Companies, CNN Money, August 31, 2009, money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortunefastestgrowing/2009/snapshots/1.html (http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortunefastestgrowing/2009/snapshots/1.html).].         .       ,   .      .   ,         .

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  .     ,     [30 - Jamie Barden and Richard E. Petty, The Mere Perception of Elaboration Creates Attitude Certainty: Exploring the Thoughtfulness Heuristic, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 95 (2008): 489509.].        ,     .             .   ,    [31 - W.Ralph Eubanks, How History and Hollywood Got Cleopatra Wrong, NPR, November 1, 2010, www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=130976125 (http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId%3d130976125).] (   ,   ,      ),    (   ,         [32 - Jason Farago, T. Rex Like You Havent Seen Him: With Feathers, NewYork Times, March 7, 2019, www.nytimes.com/2019/03/07/arts/design/t-rex-exhibition-american-museum-of-natural-history.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/07/arts/design/t-rex-exhibition-american-museum-of-natural-history.html); Brigit Katz, T. Rex Was Likely Covered in Scales, Not Feathers, Smithsonian, June 8, 2017, www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/t-rex-skin-was-not-covered-feathers-study-says-180963603 (http://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/t-rex-skin-was-not-covered-feathers-study-says-180963603).])    (   ,       [33 - Alix Spiegel and Lulu Miller, How to Become Batman, Invisibilia, NPR, January 23, 2015, www.npr.org/programs/invisibilia/378577902/how-to-become-batman (http://www.npr.org/programs/invisibilia/378577902/how-to-become-batman).]              )[34 -   ,   ,       [Sterling Haynes, Special Feature: Tobacco Smoke Enemas, BC Medical Journal 54 (2012): 49697.]     ,    .    ,         : 1700-     ,           .     ,   .].  ,         ,       ,    .

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  ,      .      頖  [35 - Stephen Greenspan, Why We Keep Falling for Financial Scams, Wall Street Journal, January 3, 2009, www.wsj.com/articles/SB123093987596650197 (http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB123093987596650197).],   .

        - .         : ,   [36 - Philip E. Tetlock, Social Functionalist Frameworks for Judgment and Choice: Intuitive Politicians, Theologians, and Prosecutors, Psychological Review 109 (2002): 45171.].              .     ,     ,      .   ,        .         [37 - Hugo Mercier and Dan Sperber, Why Do Humans Reason? Arguments from an Argumentative Theory, Behavioral and Brain Sciences 34 (2011): 5774.].  ,        .       ,       ,     .

,   ,           ,      .    , ,  ,   .   ,        ⠫ [38 - Stephen Greenspan, Fooled by Ponzi (and Madoff): How Bernard Madoff Made Off with My Money, eSkeptic, December 23, 2008, www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/08-12-23/#feature (http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/08-12-23/#feature).].            蠖  .

     .   ,     ,     ,   ,  .     ,       ,    [39 - Greg Griffin, Scam Expert from CU Expertly Scammed, Denver Post, March 2, 2009, www.denverpost.com/2009/03/02/scam-expert-from-cu-expertly-scammed (http://www.denverpost.com/2009/03/02/scam-expert-from-cu-expertly-scammed).].      ,      .           ,      ,   ,     ,     .

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    ,     .    ,       .     ,  ,  ,   ,         .

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頖   ,    [40 - George A. Kelly, The Psychology of Personal Constructs, vol. 1, A Theory of Personality (NewYork: Norton, 1955); Brian R. Little, Who Are You, Really? The Surprising Puzzle of Personality (NewYork: Simon & Schuster, 2017).].    ,    .        ,       .            , ,   ,         .     ,   .       .    :         ,  ,        ?

      .   ,              , , , , ,     [41 - Arnaldo Camuffo etal., A Scientific Approach to Entrepreneurial Decision Making: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial, Management Science 66 (2020): 56486.].         ,         .

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   ,    .     ,      .    ,            .     ,      .             .        ,     :          [43 - Walter Isaacson, Einstein: His Life and Universe (NewYork: Simon & Schuster, 2007).].       .

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           .  ,     ,     .  ,       , ,     ?

       ,     .        ,     ,   .      ,    ,    .

      ,     ,  堖 ,    .

         . 堖   ,    ,  [46 - Raymond S. Nickerson, Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises, Review of General Psychology 2 (1998): 175220.]. 堖  ,    ,    [47 - Ben M. Tappin, Leslie van der Leer, and Ryan T. McKay, The Heart Trumps the Head: Desirability Bias in Political Belief Revision, Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 146 (2017): 114349; Ziva Kunda, The Case for Motivated Reasoning, Psychological Bulletin 108 (1990): 48098.].       ,       .        ,       .   ,         .

  堖   ,      ,    [48 - Emily Pronin, Daniel Y. Lin, and Lee Ross, The Bias Blind Spot: Perceptions of Bias in Self versus Others, Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 28 (2002): 36981.].  ,        .   ,     [49 - Richard F. West, Russell J. Meserve, and Keith E. Stanovich, Cognitive Sophistication Does Not Attenuate the Bias Blind Spot, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 103 (2012): 50619.].       .

  ,       .       ,        .     ,     .          ,    .   ,   .     [50 - Keith E. Stanovich and Maggie E. Toplak, The Need for Intellectual Diversity in Psychological Science: Our Own Studies of Actively Open-Minded Thinking as aCase Study, Cognition 187 (2019): 15666; Jonathan Baron etal., Why Does the Cognitive Reflection Test (Sometimes) Predict Utilitarian Moral Judgment (and Other Things)?, Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition 4 (2015): 26584.]. ,      ,   ,         .

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        [51 -     ,     .             .    ,     .     ,       .        ࠖ   ,             .     ,    ,      .     ,     ,      ,          .      ,    , ,     ,      .        , ,      .].  ,   ,     ,             .      ,  ,       .  ,       ,  ,     ,    ,        .   ,      ,    [52 - Neil Stenhouse etal., The Potential Role of Actively Open-Minded Thinking in Preventing Motivated Reasoning about Controversial Science, Journal of Environmental Psychology 57 (2018): 1724.].

    ,      .  ,   ,   .      ,       .

     ,     ,      ,       ,          [53 - Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi, Creativity: Flow and the Psychology of Discovery and Invention (NewYork: HarperCollins, 1996).].       ,        [54 - Donald W. Mackinnon, The Nature and Nurture of Creative Talent, American Psychologist 17 (1962): 484495.].

    .                 [55 - Dean Keith Simonton, Presidential IQ, Openness, Intellectual Brilliance, and Leadership: Estimates and Correlations for 42 U.S. Chief Executives, Political Psychology 27 (2006): 511526.].    ,   ,     ,         .        ,  ,     ,    ,     .

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      ,   ,   .   ,        . ,      :     .    ,  ,     :     ,    .        .     ,     ,    .    ,        ,    .      [56 - Jane E. Dutton and Robert B. Duncan, The Creation of Momentum for Change through the Process of Strategic Issue Diagnosis, Strategic Management Journal (May/June 1987): 27995.],       ,     .

     ,       .        .    BlackBerry     Apple.       ,     ,     .   [57 - Jacquie McNish, RIMs Mike Lazaridis Walks Out of BBC Interview, Globe and Mail, April 13, 2011, www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/rims-mike-lazaridis-walks-out-of-bbc-interview/article1322202 (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/rims-mike-lazaridis-walks-out-of-bbc-interview/article1322202).],   BlackBerry 2011.   ,   ,   . ʠ2012 iPhone     ,      [58 - Sean Silcoff, Jacquie McNish, and Steve Laurantaye, How BlackBerry Blew It, Globe and Mail, September 27, 2013, www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/the-inside-story-of-why-blackberry-is-failing/article14563602/ (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/the-inside-story-of-why-blackberry-is-failing/article14563602/).].    ,     ,     . BlackBerry      .  ,     ,     ,  ,       ,      . ,  ,       ,       .

           ,    .    .  2011   ,      ,        :    ,      ,  ,      .        - [59 - Jonathan S. Geller, Open Letter to BlackBerry Bosses: Senior RIM Exec Tells All as Company Crumbles Around Him, BGR, June 30, 2011, bgr.com/2011/06/30/open-letter-to-blackberry-bosses-senior-rim-exec-tells-all-as-company-crumbles-around-him (http://bgr.com/2011/06/30/open-letter-to-blackberry-bosses-senior-rim-exec-tells-all-as-company-crumbles-around-him).].

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   1800-,       .             ,   ,   ,      .   ,            ,  ,     .

       ,    .       ,       [63 - Frederick C. Redlich and Joseph F. Dorsey, Denial of Blindness by Patients with Cerebral Disease, Archives of Neurology & Psychiatry 53 (1945): 40717.]




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      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .



notes








1


Frank L. Schmidt and John Hunter, General Mental Ability in the World of Work: Occupational Attainment and Job Performance, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 86 (2004): 162173.




2


David C. Geary, Efficiency of Mitochondrial Functioning as the Fundamental Biological Mechanism of General Intelligence (G), Psychological Review 15 (2018): 10281050.




3


Neel Burton, What Is Intelligence?, Psychology Today, November 28, 2018, www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/hide-and-seek/201811/what-is-intelligence (http://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/hide-and-seek/201811/what-is-intelligence); Charles Stangor and Jennifer Walinga, Introduction to Psychology (Victoria, BC: BCcampus, 2014); Frank L. Schmidt, The Role of Cognitive Ability and Job Performance: Why There Cannot Be a Debate, Human Performance 15 (2002): 187210.




4


A Systematic Approach to the GRE (NewYork: Kaplan, 1999).




5


Ludy T. Benjamin Jr., Timothy A. Cavell, and William R. Shallenberger III, Staying with Initial Answers on Objective Tests: Is It a Myth?, Teaching of Psychology 11 (1984): 133141.




6


Justin Kruger, Derrick Wirtz, and Dale T. Miller, Counterfactual Thinking and the First Instinct Fallacy, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 88 (2005): 725735.




7


Yongnam Kim, Apples to Oranges: Causal Effects of Answer Changing in Multiple-Choice Exams, arXiv:1808.10577v4, last revised October 14, 2019, arxiv.org/abs/1808.10577 (http://arxiv.org/abs/1808.10577).




8


Justin J. Couchman etal., The Instinct Fallacy: The Metacognition of Answering and Revising during College Exams, Metacognition and Learning 11 (2016): 171185.




9


Charles M. Slem, The Effects of an Educational Intervention on Answer Changing Behavior, Annual Convention of the American Psychological Association, August 1985, eric.ed.gov/?id=ED266395 (http://eric.ed.gov/?id%3dED266395).




10


Susan T. Fiske and Shelley E. Taylor, Social Cognition: From Brains to Culture, 2nd ed. (Los Angeles: Sage, 2013).




11


Arie W. Kruglanski and Donna M. Webster, Motivated Closing of the Mind: Seizing and Freezing, Psychological Review 103 (1996): 263283.




12


James Fallows, The Boiled-Frog Myth: Stop the Lying Now!, The Atlantic, September 16, 2006, www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2006/09/the-boiled-frog-myth-stop-the-lying-now/7446/ (http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2006/09/the-boiled-frog-myth-stop-the-lying-now/7446/).




13


Norman Maclean, Young Men and Fire, 25th anniversary ed. (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2017); . www.nifc.gov/safety/mann_gulch/event_timeline/event6.htm (http://www.nifc.gov/safety/mann_gulch/event_timeline/event6.htm).




14


Barry M. Staw, Lance E. Sandelands, and Jane E. Dutton, Threat Rigidity Effects in Organizational Behavior: A Multilevel Analysis, Administrative Science Quarterly 26 (1981): 501524; Karl E. Weick, The Collapse of SenseMaking in Organizations: The Mann Gulch Disaster, Administrative Science Quarterly 38 (1993): 62852.




15


Ted Putnam, Findings from the Wildland Firefighters Human Factors Workshop, United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Technology & Development Program, November 1995.




16


John N. Maclean, Fire on the Mountain: The True Story of the South Canyon Fire (NewYork: HarperPerennial, 2009).




17


Ted Putnam, Analysis of Escape Efforts and Personal Protective Equipment on the South Canyon Fire, Wildfire 4 (1995): 3439.




18


Ted Putnam, The Collapse of Decision Making and Organizational Structure on Storm King Mountain, Wildfire 4 (1995): 4045.




19


Report of the South Canyon Fire Accident Investigation Team, August 17, 1994.




20


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23


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24


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25


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26


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28


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29


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30


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31


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33


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35


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36


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37


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38


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40


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43


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44


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45


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46


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49


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53


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54


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55


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56


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57


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58


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60


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61


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62


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63


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