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How to Rig an Election

by Nick Cheeseman & Brian Klaas



  ,    , 2021

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       .   ,       ,      ,  .     ,    ,      ,    ,   .      ,    ,       .        90% [2 -  ,     NELDA Polity IV.  .  1.].      ,     ,    [3 - ., : Steven Levitsky and Lucan Way (2002). The Rise of Competitive Authoritarianism, Journal of Democracy 13, no. 2 (2005): 5165.].

  ,          ,   ,      .    1 10,  10    , 1  ,     6.  , ,          5 (.  7)[4 - Michael Coppedge, John Gerring, StaffanI.Lindberg, Svend-Erik Skaaning, Jan Teorell, David Altman, Frida Andersson, Michael Bernhard, M.Steven Fish, Adam Glynn, Allen Hicken, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Kelly McMann, Valeriya Mechkova, Farhad Miri, Pamela Paxton, Daniel Pemstein, Rachel Sigman, Jeffrey Staton and Brigitte Zimmerman (2016), Varieties of Democracy (VDem) Codebook v6.].  ,            ,   30%     [5 - Susan D.Hyde, Nikolay Marinov. Which elections can be lost?, Political Analysis 20, no. 2 (2012): 191201.].  ,    7  10           1990- .

   ,            ,    .    ,            [6 -    .: Francis Fukuyama, The End of History and the Last Man (New York: Free Press, 1992): 120.]. ,   ,       .         .            .  ,   ,    .     Freedom House,   , 2017          ,       [7 - Freedom House. Freedom in the world 2017; http://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/freedom-world-2017 (http://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/freedom-world-2017) (   29 2018).].

        ,    .    12       ,   . ,                . ,             ,   ,   ,      ,   . ,    ,     2017, ,   , ,  , ,  .       [8 -  . Freedom House. Freedom in the world 2017; http://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/freedom-world-2017 (http://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/freedom-world-2017) (   29 2018).].

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 ,            ,          ,       .  ,    :           , ,    ,        .       ,           .    ,  ,        ,    [11 - .: PhilipG.Roessler and Marc Morj Howard. Post-Cold War political regimes: when do elections matter? // Staffan Lindberg (ed.). Democratization by Elections: A New Mode of Transition (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2009): 10127, 120.        :   ,    ;  ,   ,     ;   ,     ,      .      19872006,  ,    ,  ,    ,           ,      .     , ,       ,    ,      (      ).].

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       ,       ,   ,  ,       .  ,         ,           ,       ,  -   [16 -    ,  ,            ,      . .: Paul Chaisty, Nic Cheeseman and Timothy Power. Rethinking the Presidentialism Debate: Conceptualizing Coalitional Politics in Crossregional Perspective, Democratization 21, no. 1 (2014): 7294; Paul Chaisty, Nic Cheeseman and Timothy Power. Coalitional Presidentialism in Comparative Perspective (Oxford University Press, 2018).].     ,          ,        .  ,        .

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        ,        .   ,        ,     ,          .    ,     ,       [24 - .: Larry Jay Diamond. Thinking about hybrid regimes, Journal of Democracy 13, no. 2 (2002): 2135; Andreas Schedler. The Politics of Uncertainty: Sustaining and Subverting Electoral Authoritarianism (Oxford University Press, 2012), .    .: Klaas (2016), The Despots Accomplice.]. ,        [25 - Gideon Maltz. The Case for Presidential Term Limits, Journal of Democracy 18, no. 1 (2007): 12842.].  ,     ,         [26 - ., : Nic Cheeseman. African Elections as Vehicles for Change, Journal of Democracy 21, no. 4 (2010): 13953.].

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            .   ,       ,         ,   .   ,   ,    ,      . ,           .       ,  ,  -    ,    ,   ,  ,       ,             , ,    .            ,         .  ,   ,      [36 - George Packer. Togo: The dictators new clothes, Dissent Magazine, Fall (1985): 41116.].

            ,         .          ,         (  ).  ,     ,    ,             $12,  ,     [37 - Grant Podelco. You Crazy Dictator: Bread and Circuses in Turkmenistan, Atlantic, 12 November 2012;    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/11/you-crazy-dictator-bread-and-circuses-in-turkmenistan/265125 (https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/11/you-crazy-dictator-bread-and-circuses-in-turkmenistan/265125) (   10 2017).].

 ,    ,                .  ,  ,        ,           [38 - Michela Wrong. Our Turn to Eat: The Story of a Kenyan Whistleblower (London: Fourth Estate, 2009).]. ,          ,      $20      30 .       (    )       [39 - ,      . Transparency International ,     $35.     ,                    .     : Ignacio Jimu. Managing proceeds of asset recovery: The case of Nigeria, Peru, the Philippines and Kazakhstan Basel Institute of Governance/ICAR Working Paper Series, no. 6 (2009): 7.].  ,  ,      ,  . ,        .    ,  ,   ,      ,    .    0  100,       ,      29 .  ,          .  ,        .

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        ,           ,  ,   .         ,         :   2014 ,   1987    .  ,        ,    ,       ,    .     ,          .  ,  ,    ,   ,    ,  ,       .       ,      ,     [42 - Brian Bennett. The Last Dictatorship in Europe: Belarus Under Lukashenko (London: C.Hurst & Co., 2012): 21930.].

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  ,          .  ,          [45 -      , ,   ,    , ,   ,        ,      .         ,  Africa Centre for Open Governance (AfriCOG)     2013:   50,9% ,  ,     . .: Gabrielle Lynch, Nic Cheeseman and Justin Willis (forthcoming). The Violence of Electoral Peace: The Ballot, Order and Authority in Africa, African Affairs.].  ,      ,          ,      .      .  ,      Afrobarometer    (67%)      [46 - Robert Mattes and Michael Bratton. Do Africans still Want Democracy? This New Report Gives a Qualified Yes, Afrobarometer Working Paper no. 36 (2016): 4; http://afrobarometer.org/blogs/do-africans-still-want-democracy-new-report-gives-qualified-yes (http://afrobarometer.org/blogs/do-africans-still-want-democracy-new-report-gives-qualified-yes) (   18 2017). Afrobarometer   - ,      30   .        .: Afrobarometer (2017); http://www.afrobarometer.org (http://www.afrobarometer.org/) (   10 2017).].     ,    ,  -    (62,3%),      ,      (,      38%    )[47 - Rorisang Lekalake. Still No Alternative? Popular Views of the Opposition in Southern Africas One-Party Dominant Regimes, Afrobarometer Working Paper no. 38 (2017): 3.].   ,  ,       ,    .

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       .          ,            .     ,  ,  ,   11 2001               .     :          , -   .         [54 - Human Rights Watch (9 August 2002), Uzbekistan: Two Brutal Deaths in Custody; http://www.hrw.org/news/2002/08/09/uzbekistan-two-brutal-deaths-custody (http://www.hrw.org/news/2002/08/09/uzbekistan-two-brutal-deaths-custody) (   10 2017); . : Thomas Carothers. Promoting democracy and fighting terror, Foreign Affairs, January/February 2003; https://www.foreignaf-fairs.com/articles/20030101/promoting-democracy-and-fighting-terror (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2003-01-01/promoting-democracy-and-fighting-terror) (   10 2017).].

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    ,   .    ,       .     2007        .      ,       ,      .         .  ,    :      ,          (   ),         [60 - Nic Cheeseman. The Kenyan Elections of 2007: an Introduction, Journal of Eastern African Studies 2, no. 2 (2008): 16684, 169; BBC News, Kenya Muslims Deny Sharia Claims, 27 November 2007; http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7115387.stm (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7115387.stm) (   5 2007).].

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notes








1


Brian Klaas. The Despots Accomplice: How the West is Aiding and Abetting the Decline of Democracy (London: Hurst, 2016): 83; Max Fisher (2013), Oops: Azerbaijan Released Election Results before Voting Had Even Started, Washington Post, 9 October 2013; http://www.washington-post.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/10/09/oops-azerbaijan-released-election-results-before-voting-had-even-started (http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/10/09/oops-azerbaijan-released-election-results-before-voting-had-even-started) (   10 2017).




2


 ,     NELDA Polity IV.  .  1.




3


., : Steven Levitsky and Lucan Way (2002). The Rise of Competitive Authoritarianism, Journal of Democracy 13, no. 2 (2005): 5165.




4


Michael Coppedge, John Gerring, StaffanI.Lindberg, Svend-Erik Skaaning, Jan Teorell, David Altman, Frida Andersson, Michael Bernhard, M.Steven Fish, Adam Glynn, Allen Hicken, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Kelly McMann, Valeriya Mechkova, Farhad Miri, Pamela Paxton, Daniel Pemstein, Rachel Sigman, Jeffrey Staton and Brigitte Zimmerman (2016), Varieties of Democracy (VDem) Codebook v6.




5


Susan D.Hyde, Nikolay Marinov. Which elections can be lost?, Political Analysis 20, no. 2 (2012): 191201.




6


   .: Francis Fukuyama, The End of History and the Last Man (New York: Free Press, 1992): 120.




7


Freedom House. Freedom in the world 2017; http://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/freedom-world-2017 (http://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/freedom-world-2017) (   29 2018).




8


 . Freedom House. Freedom in the world 2017; http://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/freedom-world-2017 (http://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/freedom-world-2017) (   29 2018).




9


., : DwightY.King. HalfHearted Reform: Electoral Institutions and the Struggle for Democracy in Indonesia (Westport, CT: Praeger Publishers, 2003): 7.




10


       : Sarah Birch. Electoral Malpractice (Oxford University Press, 2014); Pippa Norris. Why Electoral Integrity Matters (Cambridge University Press, 2014).




11


.: PhilipG.Roessler and Marc Morj Howard. Post-Cold War political regimes: when do elections matter? // Staffan Lindberg (ed.). Democratization by Elections: A New Mode of Transition (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2009): 10127, 120.        :   ,    ;  ,   ,     ;   ,     ,      .      19872006,  ,    ,  ,    ,           ,      .     , ,       ,    ,      (      ).




12


     2018. . .




13


., : Birch (2011), Electoral Malpractice; Pippa Norris. Why Elections Fail (Cambridge University Press, 2015); Susan Hyde. The PseudoDemocrats Dilemma: Why Election Observation Became an International Norm (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2015).




14


.: Ferran Mart?nez i Coma and Ignacio Lago. Gerrymandering in comparative perspective, Party Politics, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068816642806 (https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068816642806) (   17 2017).




15


., : R.Michael Alvarez, ThadE.Hall and SusanD.Hyde (eds). Election Fraud: Detecting and Deterring Electoral Manipulation (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2015).




16


   ,  ,            ,      . .: Paul Chaisty, Nic Cheeseman and Timothy Power. Rethinking the Presidentialism Debate: Conceptualizing Coalitional Politics in Crossregional Perspective, Democratization 21, no. 1 (2014): 7294; Paul Chaisty, Nic Cheeseman and Timothy Power. Coalitional Presidentialism in Comparative Perspective (Oxford University Press, 2018).




17


., : Ewan Harrison and Sara McLaughlin Mitchell. The Triumph of Democracy and the Eclipse of the West (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2013): 7597.




18


 ,    : SamuelP.Huntington. The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century (Norman, OK: University of Oklahoma Press, 1993).




19


   .    ,  RonaldF.Inglehart. Changing Values among Western Publics from 1970 to 2006, West European Politics 31, no. 12 (2008): 13046; Ronald Inglehart ScottC.Flanagan. Value Change in Industrial Societies, American Political Science Review 81, no. 4 (1987): 1289319.




20


 -      1987  2011.           .      35  ,   , ,    . . .




21


         ,         ,    .      ,             .




22


Hyde and Marinov (2012), Which Elections Can Be Lost?.




23


Carolyn Baylies and Morris Szeftel. The Fall and Rise of Multi-party Politics in Zambia, Review of African Political Economy 19, no. 54: 7591.




24


.: Larry Jay Diamond. Thinking about hybrid regimes, Journal of Democracy 13, no. 2 (2002): 2135; Andreas Schedler. The Politics of Uncertainty: Sustaining and Subverting Electoral Authoritarianism (Oxford University Press, 2012), .    .: Klaas (2016), The Despots Accomplice.




25


Gideon Maltz. The Case for Presidential Term Limits, Journal of Democracy 18, no. 1 (2007): 12842.




26


., : Nic Cheeseman. African Elections as Vehicles for Change, Journal of Democracy 21, no. 4 (2010): 13953.




27


Roessler and Howard (2009). Post-Cold War Political Regimes: 11822.




28


     : Steven Levitsky and LucanA.Way. Competitive Authoritarianism: Hybrid Regimes after the Cold War (Cambridge University Press, 2010).




29


     ,            . ,         . ,    ,          (polity index)   Freedom House,  Polity IV Regime Type,     :   (10  5),   (5  0),   (0  5),   (6  10).      Polity .: MontyG.Marshall. Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 18002013, Polity IV (2014); http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm (http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm) (   10 2017).  Freedom House (  114      ,      ),    :   (7  6),   (5  4),   (3),   (2  1).      Freedom House . Freedom House. Freedom in the World 2012: Methodology; https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world-2012/methodology (https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world-2012/methodology) (   10 2017).




30


Roessler and Howard (2009), Post-Cold War Political Regimes: 119.




31


Roessler and Howard (2009), Post-Cold War Political Regimes: 120.




32


Robert Dahl. Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1972): 15.




33


   : Nic Cheeseman. Democracy in Africa: Successes, Failures, and the Struggle for Political Reform (Cambridge University Press, 2015).




34


   ,      2011. . .




35


Paul Collier. Wars, Guns and Votes: Democracy in Dangerous Places (New York: Random House, 2008),  .10321.




36


George Packer. Togo: The dictators new clothes, Dissent Magazine, Fall (1985): 41116.




37


Grant Podelco. You Crazy Dictator: Bread and Circuses in Turkmenistan, Atlantic, 12 November 2012;    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/11/you-crazy-dictator-bread-and-circuses-in-turkmenistan/265125 (https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/11/you-crazy-dictator-bread-and-circuses-in-turkmenistan/265125) (   10 2017).




38


Michela Wrong. Our Turn to Eat: The Story of a Kenyan Whistleblower (London: Fourth Estate, 2009).




39


,      . Transparency International ,     $35.     ,                    .     : Ignacio Jimu. Managing proceeds of asset recovery: The case of Nigeria, Peru, the Philippines and Kazakhstan Basel Institute of Governance/ICAR Working Paper Series, no. 6 (2009): 7.




40


Alex Josey. Lee Kuan Yew: The Crucial Years (New York: Marshall Cavendish International Asia Pte, 2013).




41


      ,            , .: JamesC.Scott. Seeing Like a State: How Certain Schemes to Improve the Human Condition Have Failed (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1998).




42


Brian Bennett. The Last Dictatorship in Europe: Belarus Under Lukashenko (London: C.Hurst & Co., 2012): 21930.




43


      . 13   ,        ,     .




44


Holger Bernt Hansen and Michael Twaddle (eds). From Chaos to Order: The Politics of Constitutionmaking in Uganda (Kampala: Fountain Publishers, 1995); Nic Cheeseman, Gabrielle Lynch and Justin Willis. Musevenis NRM Party still Has Support in Rural Uganda, The East African, 16 2016; http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/oped/comment/Museveni-NRM-party-still-has-huge-support-in-ruralUganda-/4347503036604-d65f7dz/index.html (http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/oped/comment/Museveni-NRM-party-still-has-huge-support-in-rural-Uganda-/434750-3036604-d65f7dz/index.html) (   15 2017).




45


     , ,   ,    , ,   ,        ,      .         ,  Africa Centre for Open Governance (AfriCOG)     2013:   50,9% ,  ,     . .: Gabrielle Lynch, Nic Cheeseman and Justin Willis (forthcoming). The Violence of Electoral Peace: The Ballot, Order and Authority in Africa, African Affairs.




46


Robert Mattes and Michael Bratton. Do Africans still Want Democracy? This New Report Gives a Qualified Yes, Afrobarometer Working Paper no. 36 (2016): 4; http://afrobarometer.org/blogs/do-africans-still-want-democracy-new-report-gives-qualified-yes (http://afrobarometer.org/blogs/do-africans-still-want-democracy-new-report-gives-qualified-yes) (   18 2017). Afrobarometer   - ,      30   .        .: Afrobarometer (2017); http://www.afrobarometer.org (http://www.afrobarometer.org/) (   10 2017).




47


Rorisang Lekalake. Still No Alternative? Popular Views of the Opposition in Southern Africas One-Party Dominant Regimes, Afrobarometer Working Paper no. 38 (2017): 3.




48


 ,    Archigos Data Set ( .  1).




49


  .: Lutz Oette. Peace and Justice, or Neither? The Repercussions of the al-Bashir Case for International Criminal Justice in Africa and Beyond, Journal of International Criminal Justice 8, no. 2 (2010): 34564;     ,            , .: Mark Kersten. The ICC and the Security Council: Just Say No?, Justice in Conflict, 29 February;    https://justiceinconflict.org/2012/02/29/the-icc-and-the-security-council-just-say-no/ (https://justiceinconflict.org/2012/02/29/the-icc-and-the-security-council-just-say-no/) (   15 2017).




50


  Archigos,     . .: H.E.Goemans, Kristian Gleditsch and Giacomo Chiozza. Introducing Archigos: A Data Set of Political Leaders, Journal of Peace Research 46, no. 2 (2009): 16983.




51


Harris Lentz. Encyclopedia of Heads of States and Governments: 1900 through 1945 (Jefferson, NC: McFarland, 1999): 219.




52


     ,     ,      3% ,   ,      .  -    3.1,      -   .




53


  Center for Systemic Peace, Polity IV project, .  1. . : Michael Ross. Does oil hinder democracy?, World Politics 53, no. 3 (2001): 32561; SarahM.Brooks and MarcusJ.Kurtz. Oil and Democracy: Endogenous Natural Resources and the Political Resource Curse, International Organizations 70, no. 2 (2016): 279311; AnarK.Ahmadov. Oil, democracy, and Context: A Meta-analysis, Comparative Political Studies 47, no. 9 (2014): 123867.




54


Human Rights Watch (9 August 2002), Uzbekistan: Two Brutal Deaths in Custody; http://www.hrw.org/news/2002/08/09/uzbekistan-two-brutal-deaths-custody (http://www.hrw.org/news/2002/08/09/uzbekistan-two-brutal-deaths-custody) (   10 2017); . : Thomas Carothers. Promoting democracy and fighting terror, Foreign Affairs, January/February 2003; https://www.foreignaf-fairs.com/articles/20030101/promoting-democracy-and-fighting-terror (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2003-01-01/promoting-democracy-and-fighting-terror) (   10 2017).




55


., : Beth Whitaker. Compliance among Weak States: Africa and the Counter-terrorism Regime, Review of International Studies 36, no. 3 (2010): 63962.




56


         .: Sergei Guriev and Daniel Treisman. How Modern Dictators Survive: an Informational Theory of the New Authoritarianism, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper no. 21136 (2015); http://www.nber.org/papers/w21136 (http://www.nber.org/papers/w21136) (   10 2017).




57


      ,           ,   ,   ,   .     ,     . ,         500   ($3). .: Michael Bratton. Vote buying and violence in Nigerian election campaigns, Electoral Studies 27, no. 4 (2008): 62132. , ,   ,   $8  $65  . .: Ivana Mellers. The Cost of Corruption, Americas Quarterly(2016). (http://americasquarterly.org/content/cost-corruption) , 2013         $5  $25. .: Jason Wallach. Anatomy of Election Fraud: Stealing the 2013 Honduran Election in Five Simple Steps, Foreign Policy in Focus, 19 December 2013; http://fpif.org/anatomy-election-fraud-stealing-2013-honduran-election-five-simple-steps (http://fpif.org/anatomy-election-fraud-stealing-2013-honduran-election-five-simple-steps) (   10 2017). ,          ,    .     ,   ,          .




58


., : Fook Kwang Han. The Rise of Trump and its Global Implications: America at War with Itself, RSIS Commentary no. 27, 10 February 2017; https://www.rsis.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/CO17027.pdf (https://www.rsis.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/CO17027.pdf) (   10 2017).




59


Joanna M.Burkhardt. History of Fake News, Library Technology Reports 53, no. 8 (2017): 59.




60


Nic Cheeseman. The Kenyan Elections of 2007: an Introduction, Journal of Eastern African Studies 2, no. 2 (2008): 16684, 169; BBC News, Kenya Muslims Deny Sharia Claims, 27 November 2007; http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7115387.stm (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7115387.stm) (   5 2007).




61


EIU    :  ,        ;   ,    ;  ,          ;   ,      ,   . .: Revenge of the Deplorables: The 2016 Democracy Index Report, Economist Intelligence Unit (2016); http://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=DemocracyIndex2016 (http://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=DemocracyIndex2016) (   11 2017).




62


Declining Trust in Government is Denting Democracy, The Economist, 25 2017; http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2017/01/daily-chart-20 (http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2017/01/daily-chart-20) (   11 2017).




63


. : Cheeseman (2010), African Elections as Vehicles for Change.




64


   .: Robin Harding and David Stasavage. What Democracy Does (and Doesnt Do) for Basic Services: School Fees, School Inputs, and African Elections, Journal of Politics 76, no. 1 (2013): 22945.       .




65


  ,       . . .




66


Brian Whitmore. St Pete Poll Plays Double Jeopardy, Moscow Times, 6 October 1998.




67


Brian Whitmore. St Petersburgs Reformers Battle a Russian Tammany Hall, Jamestown Foundation, 13 November 1998.




68


Whitmore (1998), St Pete Poll Plays Double Jeopardy.


