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  .           () .  ,  ,   ,  ,   ,          .  ,   ,     ,  ,          ,      ,   ,       .

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  ,  ,    ,      .               .     ,          GuruFocus,    12;   ,        ;    ,       .

     ,  ,  ,        GuruFocus.   GuruFocus       .

  300000   GuruFocus    18000          12.       GuruFocus.com (http://gurufocus.com/)  .

          ,   ,    .             .      .        .    -,  .   ,   11  ,         .

     ,           .       Fairfax Financial,     Chou Associates,     Gotham Funds,     Gardner and Russo,        Yacktman Asset Management,     Auxier Capital,     Markel Corp.  .

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       ,             .   ,    ,  ,  -  .      .

 1988.     .   ,               :    .         ,  ,         ,  .

                 .          ,  ,   ,   ,  ,   .            ,     .  .        . ,      ,       .    ,   .   ,     !

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         ,     .          -[1 - Peter Lynch with John Rothschild, Beating the Street, Simon & Schuster paperbacks, NewYork, 1993.].     ,         ࠖ  ,     2002.          90%     ,          ,     2.

  15,   Nasdaq      2000.   2016.       Dow Jones U. S. Telecommunications    50%   2000.

      .  .    ,   젖          .







       (A Short History of Financial Euphoria)[2 - John Kenneth Galbraith, A Short History of Financial Euphoria, Penguin Books, 1990.]           XVII.  ,     ,  ,  蠖       ,   -         .

  :   ,  . ,        ,   .

          1630- .           ,     .     ,     .          .      XVIII.              .    ,      .       ,      ,        .  1720.        ,          .         .    ,     ,      ,   ,     .     ,   .         1720.     ,    ?20000   .

 ,       ,    ,     .        ,    ,        .   :      ,    [3 - John OFarrell, An Utterly Impartial History of Britain Or 2000 Years of Upper Class Idiots in Charge, Doubleday, 2007.].

-            ,   ,      .

          :         -       .   ,           ,                .  ,  WorldCom  Global Crossing,           ,     .   ,   Nortel, Alcatel    ,  .          ,         .     ,    ,        .

  .     PowerPoint      ,   .        2001.       .    ,  .      ,     .    2001.,  Nasdaq      60%     ,          .

   ,     ,       .  Oplink  2001.  $131,      $25.         .                ,    -.            .           ,     .    : 97%    .  WorldCom  Global Crossing ,      ,      .     .  2002.   Oplink   $75  $37.      80% ,      ,   ,   .     ,     .

   ,       ,    .          :

1. .       ,    .  ,     - , ,        ,      .     ,    .        ,         .

2..  ,   ,      .           .           2007.,       2000- .         , ,   .     .      ,    ,   [4 - Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letter, 2007, http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2007ltr.pdf (http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2007ltr.pdf).].

3.  .    ,      .  .     :                    ,   .       .     ,       .     :      ,       .        ,  , ,    .   1999.        -.      ,  -   .    ,    1999.    20%.   ,  - ,         .     .     ,    ,  렖    ,      :  .

4. .   ,        -    .                  .      -      ,    ,     .      -,   .           .  .   1999.        1999. 35%- .    ,          -        .

,                ,  ( )   .       ,      . , ,     [5 - Andrew Bary, Whats Wrong, Warren? Barrons, 1999, http://www.barrons.com/articles/SB945992010127068546 (http://www.barrons.com/articles/SB945992010127068546).].   -   ,      ,              -;    ,    .  ,      ,   90%       .   ,     ,          ,   .  ,     FPA Crescent Fund,  .  85%    ,  15% ,   ,  ,      ,      [6 - Steven Romick, Dont Be Surprised Speech to CFA Society of Chicago, June 2015, http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/specialcommentaries/cfa-society-of-chicago-june-2015-final1.pdf?sfvrsn=2 (http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/specialcommentaries/cfa-society-of-chicago-june-2015-final1.pdf?sfvrsn=2).].

,    ,   ,    ,   .            ,      .                 .

  ,     ,    [7 - Peter Lynch with John Rothschild, One Up on Wall Street, Simon & Schuster paperbacks, NewYork, 1998.]          .            40.       .      ,       .  :  ,    !

 ,          .       蠖    .          .        ,        ,       .     ,    ,    .

   GuruFocus     2004.,    .     , ,     GuruFocus,    .    ,    . ,   .    4:00      ,   8:00,           .     18:00       GuruFocus.      ,      ,     .

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 1





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 [8 - Charlie Munger, USC Law Commencement Speech, 2007, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u81l7rM2yl8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u81l7rM2yl8).]

 ,        , ,       .     .      ,      .   ,        ,      .         .  2004.  GuruFocus.com (http://gurufocus.com/),    .       ,       ,    .

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  ,          ,   .     Fidelity  1980- .,         13    29%.  ,   ,     -[9 -  .  -. .:  , 2014.][10 - Peter Lynch with John Rothschild, Beating the Street, Simon & Schuster paperbacks, NewYork, 1993.]    :     [11 -  .   :     . .:  , 2020.][12 - Peter Lynch with John Rothschild, One Up on Wall Street, Simon & Schuster paperbacks, NewYork, 1998.],         .         - .            .


,     

    P/E (    )         ,         .           ,  ,        ,       .   [13 - Peter Lynch with John Rothschild, One Up on Wall Street, Simon & Schuster paperbacks, NewYork, 1998.]:



  ,        ,        .      ,         .


    :

1. ;

2. ;

3. ;

4. ;

5.   ;

6.   .

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 ,             ,         ,         .          .   ,           .        Oplink  2001  [14 - Oplink Communications, 10K, 2001, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1022225/000101287001502073/d10k.txt (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1022225/000101287001502073/d10k.txt).]:



         1995.    .     $80,4, $24,9  $3,5   ,  30 2001, 2000  1999. .


 ,        ,      ,     ?    ,            Oplink.

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         :   Starbucks   2001.     2003.,  65% .      ,  Starbucks   ,  ,     .

     ,          . ,    ,   ,    [15 - Peter Lynch with John Rothschild, One Up on Wall Street, Simon & Schuster paperbacks, NewYork, 1998.].


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 AutoZone      ,      ,               ,    .      ,    ,      .

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         頖     .      :


  ,     

  :



  ,     ,   ,          [16 - Track Companies, Not Markets [Final Edition], USA Today, p. 04.B, McLean, Virginia, March 7, 1989.].


   ,     . 頖      .               .               -.         :     [17 - Peter Lynch with John Rothschild, One Up on Wall Street, Simon & Schuster paperbacks, NewYork, 1998.]:



    ,  ,   .        ,      ,    ,    .   ,     .  - :      ,     ,   ,          .


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     Moodys      .          S&P Global        .      2000- .             ,       .      ,     .         ,      Moody?s  S&P Global,         ,          Moody?s.         .        .




  .


   .

   ,     (https://www.litres.ru/pages/biblio_book/?art=66766238)  .

      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .



notes








1


Peter Lynch with John Rothschild, Beating the Street, Simon & Schuster paperbacks, NewYork, 1993.




2


John Kenneth Galbraith, A Short History of Financial Euphoria, Penguin Books, 1990.




3


John OFarrell, An Utterly Impartial History of Britain Or 2000 Years of Upper Class Idiots in Charge, Doubleday, 2007.




4


Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letter, 2007, http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2007ltr.pdf (http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2007ltr.pdf).




5


Andrew Bary, Whats Wrong, Warren? Barrons, 1999, http://www.barrons.com/articles/SB945992010127068546 (http://www.barrons.com/articles/SB945992010127068546).




6


Steven Romick, Dont Be Surprised Speech to CFA Society of Chicago, June 2015, http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/specialcommentaries/cfa-society-of-chicago-june-2015-final1.pdf?sfvrsn=2 (http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/specialcommentaries/cfa-society-of-chicago-june-2015-final1.pdf?sfvrsn=2).




7


Peter Lynch with John Rothschild, One Up on Wall Street, Simon & Schuster paperbacks, NewYork, 1998.




8


Charlie Munger, USC Law Commencement Speech, 2007, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u81l7rM2yl8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u81l7rM2yl8).




9


 .  -. .:  , 2014.




10


Peter Lynch with John Rothschild, Beating the Street, Simon & Schuster paperbacks, NewYork, 1993.




11


 .   :     . .:  , 2020.




12


Peter Lynch with John Rothschild, One Up on Wall Street, Simon & Schuster paperbacks, NewYork, 1998.




13


Peter Lynch with John Rothschild, One Up on Wall Street, Simon & Schuster paperbacks, NewYork, 1998.




14


Oplink Communications, 10K, 2001, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1022225/000101287001502073/d10k.txt (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1022225/000101287001502073/d10k.txt).




15


Peter Lynch with John Rothschild, One Up on Wall Street, Simon & Schuster paperbacks, NewYork, 1998.




16


Track Companies, Not Markets [Final Edition], USA Today, p. 04.B, McLean, Virginia, March 7, 1989.




17


Peter Lynch with John Rothschild, One Up on Wall Street, Simon & Schuster paperbacks, NewYork, 1998.


