 .    
  


  ,        ,            - .      ,   ,  ,   ,    .     ,      ,    ,    ,          ,  -     .        ,      ,        -                      .

  PDF A4   .





 

 .    





 




    ,   ,        ,    .  . ,   [],   ,   :    , ,  ,   ,     ,      .        , [  ]   : ,  ,   ,           .   ,          ,   ,                 .  ,     ,      .

 ,  



   1990-   belle epoque,    1998 .       ,      ,   1990- .                 .     2000-  ,   .      ,   . ,      , ,  ,   ,   .         ,       ,   ,    ,   ,    .     ,   .       ,   ,    ,     ,        .

 ,   



   ,    ,  ,         . ,  ,        ,   (. )    :             ,     .        , ,           ,       .

 ,   



   ,    ( ,  )  .

 ,    



  ,    . ,           ,              ,       .           .

 ,    







     !   ,      :   ,  ,    .

.     

		    ,
		      .

.

 ,     ,     .     ,   .        XX. ,  .    ,    XX.   ,       .                .   ,    ,  .   ,     , ,      ,            ,   .                . ,         ,  ,    .

        .    .      ,           [1 -          ,    ,       , .       .   ,          .    ,  30%        . (.: Dawisha . The Kremlin and the Prague Spring. Berkeley; Los Angeles; London: University of California Press, 1984. E 6, 53.)].       ,           .

         .     .     . :  20042008.      .        [2 -  . 2004.19 .].  . :        .       ,      .    ,   ,    ,        [3 -  .  . .: Ad Marginem Press, 2002. . 426.].  . :        ,  ,  ,            [4 -  .  . .: -, 2000. . 195.].             XX.,    ,   [5 - ., : Strayer R. Why Did the Soviet Union Collapse? Understanding Historical Change. N. Y; L.: M.E. Sharpe Inc., 1998.    .  :          .      ,  . ,        ,   ,       .      ,     ,    .         .       ,     .   ,       .       .    ,     ,    ,  ,    .     ,       .         .            .       ,   ,    ,      . (.:  .   :   //  . 2005. . XVI. . 64.)].   .      (2005.)        [6 -    .     . 25  2005. .: http://president.kremlin.ru/text/appears/2005/04/87049.shtml.].

    ,      .    .      ,    - [7 - Von Hagen M. Writing the History of Russia as Empire: The Perspective of Federalism // Kazan, Moscow, St. Petersburg: Multiple Faces of the Russian Empire. Moscow, 1997. P. 393.]. ,   , .    .           . ,      ,  : ,    ,  ,  .  ,      ,      XVII.    .

,        ,  .      . ,    ,   .

  I    ,   ,      .        .  ,         ,  ,    ,   , .      ,     ,     [8 -  . .     . .:  , 1989. . 2. . 42.].   ,        [9 -  . .   .  23, . . .:  , 1991. . 228.].        :           [10 -   .  4- .  .   . .:  , 1981. . 1. . 662.].  ,         ,       .     ,  .       ,    .           ,       ,    (  ) ,   ,          .

 XX.    ,      : [11 -         (   ),   ,          .] (, ,   .)    (-,   ..).        . ,      ,  ,  .

  ,     XX.,  .                   .         .     ,      ,     ,  -  .   ,    .

 ,    ,  ,        .       . :        .     .    ,    .

     , ,       19171921.  ,       , -         .       ,        .         ,    - , .

             .       ,       (1956.),    ,    2003.      [12 -            ( )    .].

         .        .      .      .     20032004. , , ,  ,      ,      .       .    ,       ,      .       , ,   ,      .

     , , ,   .       ( -    )           . ,    ,         .      (-, , , , ) ,  ,     ,  .    ,       ,  .

   ,    ,            ,    ,   [13 - Arnold G. Britain Since 1945: Choice, Conflict and Change. L.; Blandford, 1989. P.4149.].

     .    1918.    ,   .   -      ,   ,      .      ,        ,  ,     .          .        ,   ,       .  ,     ,     [14 - Broszat . Hitler and the Collapse of Weimar Germany. N. Y: BERG, 1987. P. 45.].     1920- .     , ,   - 1918.     ,    ,      .

   ,        , ,     1918.,   ,       .   ,    .    1918.          ,       .          1918.,       ,    .

     .      .  ,    ?         .  ,    1918.      ,      ,      .   ,     ,               ,     [15 - Broszat M. Hitler and the Collapse of Weimar Germany. P.55, 56.].

  : ,    ,    .     : ,                  ,    ,    [16 -       .    1960- .  1920- . -     ,           . (.: Delmer S. Weimar Germany: Democracy on Trial. N. Y: Macdonald and Co., 1972. E 52.)].   , , ,    ,        ,      .

, ,   ,  ,  ,    .   ,      [17 -  ,         ,   , .:  .    :   // . 2001. 3 (62). .2533.].   ,  ,    ,     .  .  .      ,      .

     ,    .         ,    19881991.,     .         20 .   ,    ,      ,     ,     ,    .      ,       [18 -  ,    ,  - ,   , .: Gerschenkron A. Bread and Democracy in Germany. Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1943.           . :  - .   21  2005.       . http://www.liberal. ru/sitan.asp?Num = 549.].

 .      .    ,  ,            15    ,       20062007.,  .

.   :      ,      .       ,    ,                   .    ,          .       ,  -     ,        [19 -  .   :   //  . 2005. . XVI. . 65, 66.].

  :    , ,   ,  .      .    .    ,    ,    ,     ,    , ,   .      .   ,    ,       ,    ,    ,         ,   .      ,   ,   .  .

   .   .  ,   ,  , .       .  ,         .    , , ,            ,  , ,    .  ,       .

    .  ,     , :      ,     ,     ,   ,     .          .    ,     . ,     1960- .          ,  .   1920-1930- .      .

. ,       ,          ,      .    ,    .  ,        ,       ,         .

  ,             .        ,     ,      XX.  .    ,    ,     , ,   .

     .      . ,     , ,    ,      (           1991.),  .

   ,     .    1991.        ,        .        1992.                 ,      ,    [20 -         8.].

: ,     ,       ,   .         ,    ,          ,    ,       ,      ,    -      .

       .     ,          1990-     ,   .   ,          8       1926.[21 -   1926.  .   ,               ,   .],     9    2000.    ,  ,         ,        19221923.[22 - Delmer S. Op.cit.     19221923.     . : Weisbrod . The Crisis of Bourgeois Society in Interwar Germany / Bessel R. (ed.). Fascist Italy and Nazi Germany. Comparisons and Contrasts. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1972. P. 30.].

          1933.  . ,  ,       -   .   1937.        [23 - Brustein W. The Logic of Evil: the Social Origins of the Nazi Party, 19251933. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1996.].     ,  ,    .   ,    ,       ,      1930- .

  ,    .          ,              . ,    1948.    .

      ,     ,     ,    ,     ,     .    ,    , ,    ,       ,       .   ,  (  ,  , ,  )   ,   ,                .  .

  ,     ,   ,   ,      ,    ,      ,      . ,   ,    ,  ,       ,   , ,      ,   ,  ,     , ,  ,        ,       ,   ,  ,   , ,   ,     ,     ,  [24 -         ,  ,     ,  .  28,4%    ,      ,     . (.:  .    :     ? http://www.ukpolitics.ru/rus./members/9/09.doc.)].

          .             ,       ,       , ,      ,     ,   .   .    1998. 2003. 19  53%.             ,       ? 2627%   : ,  [25 -  .        //  . 2005. 4041. .4657.].    ,     ,            . ,    ,    ,       .

           .      .    ,   ,     ,   ,   ,    .              ,       ,     XX.  .

    ,            .                  ,     1980- .   ,  ,  . ,        , ,    ,           ,   ,     ,     80-   90- . XX.  .

,      ,        ,       ,    .       ,   imperium       .   ,    ,       ,    ,  .   ,    ,    ,      ,       .                .

               ,   .        ,   ,     .       ,        ,   .    ,      1990- .,    ,       .   ,  ,  -, ,    .       ,      .     ,   -  1920- .     ,    ,  .

        : 1)     , ,     ; 2)   (,   )       ; 3)     ; 4)  19992000.   ,     ; 5)     .       ,    ,  ,       1920-1930- .

      ,       .         .  ,  ,     .   XV.,     ,     ,   .     ,   .    ,   ,     .

   ,    ,      .       ,   -       .      ,     .  ,     , .     .       ,        19851991.             .   ,      ,       ,   .         .

  . , . , . , . , . , . , . , . , . May, . , . , . , . , . , . , . , .   ,            ,   .  . , . , .            .  . , . , . , . , . , .   .        .  ,     ,           .

,        .




 1

   


   ,   .




 I.  ..       ,        ,   ,     ,    .       (      imperium  ).             ,       :         .        ,   ,    ,    ,     ,   .        .




1.      


   , ,  ,   ,    ,  ,      . . ,        , :       :       [26 -  .   . .:  . .   ʰ, 1891. . 71.].     .   .             ,    .         .

      .    ,     ,           [27 -     ,     ,      , , ,  .:  .   . .: . - . , 1948. . 26.].     ,      .   ,         .      800.     ,     ,     [28 - Barraclough G. The Mediaeval Empire. Idea and Reality. Historical Association: George Phillip & Son, 1950. P. 911.].

       ,    ,   .       ,     ,   .            ,      ,     XV   XVI.        ,       .

  XV.     IXXIV.,   ,         ,     .             .

 II     .     XVI.     ,     .     XV.         - ,       .    ,        [29 - Elliott J. . Spain and Its World, ljoo-i/oo. Selected Essays. New Haven; L.: Yale University Press, 1989. P 9.].     ,              XVIXVII.,      .

 XVXVI.     ,        .       .            ,   .   ,        ,     .

     .     .      ,    .      .         .         .          ,  ,   ,    .

  XIX. , ,        ,         5  1809.,   18401842.,        1853.         [30 - Cullen L. . A History of Japan, 15821941. Cambridge University Press, 2003. P.178182; Ihsanoglu E. (ed.). History of the Ottoman State, Society & Civilisation. Istanbul: IRCICA, 2001. Vol. 1. P.7376, 80;     . .: , 1973. . 1. .5862.].

   ,            ,     .  1813.                   5060% ,    ,   .    (7080% )         .   ,             .            6. .      .        ,        .  ,         ,   .     ,      150  3040. .  1814  1835.        1  51   .             4 .  1844.     5 [31 - Gopal R. British Rule In India: An Assessment. L.: Asia Publishing House, 1963. P.1719.].

      XVIIIXIX.        (     , ,   ..)  ,    .  ,         ,      .

  XIX. ,     .   ,   :  .              .   ,               .                 .

         ,      , - ,    -    XVIIIXIX.    ,     ,    .     ,                .

  XIX.   ,    ,                 .     .  -,    .  :       .    ,             [32 -   .     . .: - . , 1954. . 14.].

 1914.   ,       [33 -    ,      . ,   ,    . , 22,6%. (.: addison A. The World Economy. Historical Statistics. Paris: OECD, 2003.)    2025%.].  ,     ,    .       XIX.     .                 .

  ,        ,   ,  .     [34 - Gerschenkron A. Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective. Cambridge; Massachusetts: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 1962.].       ,      ;            ,     . ,         XIX   XX.   .

         ,         [35 -    ( . ) ,           .  .:  . .   .  1. (. .)],               ,  [36 -  .  .   :   . .: , 2005. .3646.].    ,  ,         .

 ,       XX.,           ,   .      .     .     ,     ,    .

  XX.       ,       -  XIX.,       ,      ,     .      .         .      19141945.[37 -          ,       ,      XX  .: Gamble A. Britain in Decline. Economic Police, Political Strategy and the British State. Boston: Beacon Press, 1931.].




2.     


 XIXXX.   ,   ,     ,      .     ,   ,    ,       ,      ,     .

  XX.   .  ,         ,    ,           .      ,   XIX.,     XX.    1940-1960- . ,     ,   ,   .

      ,        .    XIX.     .

  XX. -     .       1950- .         ,     ,     ,    . ,     XIX.,   XX.  .

              .           , , , ,  .   1990- .          ,     ,        ,    ,   ,      .

 19141945.   .    ,      XIX   XX.,   -  19041905.[38 -      -  19041905.       .: Rawlins ON . G. The British Achievement in India. London Edinburgh Glasgow: William Hodge & Company, Limited, 1948.],         -      .       ,           [39 - Aron R. France Steadfast and Changing: The Fourth to the Fifth Republic. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1960.].

  1940-   1950- .       .  1947. -     :       - ,            ,         [40 -  ATT .     . .: - . , 1954. . 31.].

        [41 -        .: Tilly . How Empires End / After Empire, Multiethnic societies and Nation Building. The Soviet Union and Russia, Ottoman and Habsburg Empires. N. Y; L.: Boulder, 1997. P. 3.].          .        . ,              ,  .

   -  11  ,   21 ,  1 200.   .   ,   ,          ,   ,     .       . -         ,     .   -,    ,           [42 - Glaise-Horstenau E. V. The Collapse of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. L.; Toronto: J.M. Dent and Sons. Ltd, New York: E.P Dutton and C. Inc., 1930.].

  :    ,           , [43 -  .    . 19851994:    . .: -, 1994. . 101.].

  1950- .             ,      .     ,         .  19541958.    .        , ,      .    ,   ,      [44 - Aron R. France Steadfast and Changing: The Fourth to the Fifth Republic. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1960.].

       XVIXVII.,     ,  XVIIIXIX.,       .        ,     XX.         ,        ,        .  ,    ,      .        , ,           ,    .     ,       :    ,   .

   XX.  ,  ,     ,         ,      ,        ,  ,       ,  .

     .        ,      ,    .           10- . XX.     .  ,             [45 - Morris-Jones W. ., Austin D. (eds.). Decolonisation and After: The British and French Experience // Studies in Commonwealth Politics and History. 7. L.: Frank Cass, 1980. P. 121; Goldsworthy D. Colonial Issues in British Politics 19451961. Oxford: At the Clarendon Press, 1971.]. ,  ,     ,             [46 - Goldsworthy D. Colonial Issues in British Politics 19451961. Oxford: At the Clarendon Press, 1971.].        .       .    ,      .      ,     ,    -  .    XX. ,        ,      .

 ,     ,      ,     ,   .   ,          .

               ,   ,         .  ,    ,    ,      ,      .        ,           ,         ,      ,          .

    ,       .   ,      .     .      [47 -                ,          . (.: Goldsworthy D. Colonial Issues in British Politics 19451961. Oxford: At the Clarendon Press, 1971.)].     1956.     ,  ,   ,    ,    ,     ,    .  .

 ,   ,       .

    ,  ,      :           .    XX.          .        ,    .

 XVI.              ,   .    XX.  400.      ,    20. ,     .

  ,  1971.  43%  ,    .  19611974.  .   ,   .  1967.       .                   ,        .     ,        [48 - Rady D. L. Fascism and Resistance in Portugal: Communists, Liberals and Military Dissidents in the Opposition to Salazar, 1941-19/4. Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1988; Porch D. The Portuguese Armed Forces and the Revolution. L., Stanford: Croom Helm, Hoover Institution Press, 1977; Bruce N. Portugal. The Last Empire. L.: David & Charles, 1975.].

     .               .           ,              ,       10 . -        .

          ,     . .   ,        :   []   ,      XIX.,  , []         [49 -  . ,   . . . .: - ..   ʰ, 1885. . 1. . 106.].

    -            .       ,         . ,    ,         .        ,      .

         .     ,      ,        .

 ,    ,    1940. ,        -,     ,    .  1945.           4,5 ,   ,    .      .   1961.       .     ,    ,       .   ,    ,  ,  ,      XX.,    [50 - Morris-Jones W. ., Austin D. (eds.). Decolonisation and After: The British and French Experience // Studies in Commonwealth Politics and History. 7. L.: Frank Cass, 1980.].

         1909.,        ,         [51 - Rawlins on H. G. The British Achievement in India. London Edinburgh Glasgow: William Hodge & Company, Limited, 1948. P 189.             ,           .].           . ,       .      .     1950- .        ,       ,     .    ,    ,     ,    ,      ,        .         10  1942.:    ,       -     ,      [52 - Churchill W. Memories The Second World War. L., 1952. Vol. 5. P 88.].            1951.

,     ,   ,       ,    ,             1950- .[53 - Goldsworthy D. Colonial Issues in British Politics 19451961. Oxford: At the Clarendon Press, 1971.].                    .  1951.         ,    ,  [54 - Arnold G. Britain Since 1945: Choice, Conflict and Change. L.: Blandford, 1989.].

     .     1956., ,           1958.,    ,      ,   .

 1959.  ,          ,    . . ,        ,    : ,   ,       ,      .    .  ,            [55 - Morris-Jones W. ., Austin D. (eds.). Decolonisation and After: The British and French Experience // Studies in Commonwealth Politics and History. 7. L.: Frank Cass, 1980. P 23.].

 ,    ,        .   ,  1991.                , .      .

,   ,     , ,   [56 -          ,        .        1950-1960- .    ,          .].   ,   ,         ,    ,          .    ,    25  1974.        ,        ,     .                [57 - Ferreira . G., Marshall M.W. Portugal's Revolution: Ten Years On. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1986.].

  -  ,    1940.,        ,   ,     .     ,         ,   [58 -  . .    . .: , 1985.].  ,     ,  ,     .        .

          [59 - ,              ,     ,   ,    .  1950- .    ,       ,   ,   .      .].       1940-   1950- .   ,   ;         .    1945  1954.  92.     , 140.  , 30.   .   .               .    .          .

     ,     10.   ,            ,       ,        - , ,  ,     ,          ,     .         ,         ?

      ,  - ,    ,   1954.             ,     :  -.     12  1954.  :            ,     ,          .     ,      .         .  ,            [60 - Talbott J. The War Without a Name. France in Algeria, 19541962. N. Y: Alfred A. Knopf, 1980. E 39.].   ,         .  :    [61 -  .].

    ,     .     .      .      .         .

  1955.    ,      ,      .   8.        100. .             .  1955.            75.   180. .  1956.        .   1956.   400.  .

  ,         22  1952.,   23 ,     ,  ,   .  1914.,            ,   ,   . ,    ,  .   1950- .      ,     , .            ,      .   1955.    ,   .  , ,     .

,  ,      .      -.        -.                  - .   ,      ,          .  19601961.,    , 2/3     .   8  1961. 75,2%    ,            [62 - Talbott J. The War Without a Name. France in Algeria, 19541962. N. Y: Alfred A. Knopf, 1980. E 202.].

,    19601961.,    19731974.,         ,       .     1954.     .       .      ,    ,       .    XX.    .        ,     ,     .

   ,   2/3 ,          . ,         ,  ,     ,     ,   19581962.      .   1958.      ,    ,       ,  ,       :  ?   ,           [63 - Williams P.M. Wars, Plots and Scandals in Postwar France. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1970. P. 151.].

 ,  ,   ,      ,    :   ,    ,     ,  ;   ,       ;      ,  ,         .

 19601962.,  ,           ,   ,             .   .    ,         .  ,     ,      ,   .    , ,   ,     .




3.     


  ,       ,       .      ,   ,    ,   .    XVI.         ,  , , , , , , ,        .   ,      XVIII.,     .      ,      , ,   ,      .

  ,      .           .   ,       .         ,   - ,        ,    [64 -      -,    ,    , .: Jaszi . The Dissolution of the Habsburg Monarchy. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1961.].

   ,        .   ,     .       .    ,        .

    XIX.     . , :       ,   ,    ,       , ,  []    ,     ,           . [] , ,        ,    ,          . []   []      :  ,  ,  ,  [65 -  . .     . .: , 1977. . 226, 250.].   ,            .

 ,    ,  .    ,   ,      .     ,     ,      .         2%  .

      1990- .              10%  [66 - Solsten . (ed.) Portugal: A Country Study. Washington, D. .: Federal Research Division, Library of Congress, 1994. P. 137.].          ,    .

  ,   ,    ,     ,  .      ,      : , , -, .

,         ,      ,      ,      ,     . ,   ,     .

 ,     ,      ,     .

     .     ,    - ,   :   ( )    . ,       .   .    ,   .            .          [67 - Glaise-Horstenau . V. The Collapse of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. L.; Toronto: J.M. Dent and Sont Ltd, New York: E.P. Dutton and C. Inc., 1930. P. 270.].

     ,     -,  ,    ,  ,     ,     .

           ,       XX.         .    ,   .  ,    ,  ,   ,      .  ,    :  ,        ,      ,  ,    [68 -  ..,  . .  :    . .: , 2001. .2592.].

            .    ,      ,    ,           [69 - .,        XIX.,    ,      :   ;  ,            ;       . (.: Hroch . Social Preconditions of National Revival in Europe. A Comparative Analysis of the Social Composition of Patriotic Groups Among the Smaller European Nations. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1985. P. 23.)].         ,    ,  ,   ,    ,      . - 1918.          .               .               :          [70 -  ..  - . .: -   , 1963. . 325.].

  .   100    -  ,    34     6 ,   28  .  1830.   .  ,       ,        . - ,   ,   ,     ,  ,     ,   ,      .     ,       - [71 - Jaszi . The Dissolution of the Habsburg Monarchy. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1961. P.7, 11.].

            XIX   XX.         .   ,  .  :               ,       ,   .  ,              .                         .   ,     ,       ,        ,  [72 -     :    . .: , 1998. . 331.].

      1918.        -.              .            ,   ,      .

     .      ,  :           ?         ?               -   .          .            .

 1870.       , ,  ,             .     XIX    XX.  , ,        .  1888.         1/4,   1920.  14%.     19121924.    [73 -  . .       - , http://www.hrights.ru/text/B (http://www.hrights.ru/text/B)/Chapter2.htm.].

           .      1920.      ,     ,  .        .      - .        ,    .          ,      1924.  .       ,    1920-   1930- .,         ,     [74 - Robinson R. D. The First Turkish Republic. A Case Study in National Development. Cambridge  Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 1963.].

           XIX.  :       ,     .     ,      . ,            ,    . []   ,      ,          [75 -  ..    1881. . III. -.   ? . . .  30. .: , 1984. . 27. .2628.].   ,     ,        ,       .

        ,         .     ,       ,   .          19171921.  [76 -            .:   XX.   . .1 / . . . . .: , 2002.].

.   , ,         ,  ,        ,   ,      .       . , ,        -      [77 - BESAN90N A. Lempire russe et la domination sovietique // Le concept d'empire. Paris: PUF, 1980. P.367368.].

   ,   19181922.   .          .         .   ,            ,      ,         ,     ,         ,  ,    .     .   XX.     .

 ,          ,        , ,       ,       [78 -  .    -. .: , 1909.]. .                  -,          ,    ,       , .

             ,   ,     .     , -,  .                 .

  1914.      -      -,          -.  :     ,     ,   ,    .  ,           [79 - Serbin R. Lenine et la question Ukrainienne en 1914: le discours separatiste de Zurich. Pluriel 1981. 25. E 8384.].

              ,    ,      ( ,   ),  . ,        ,      -   . ,    ,  ,            , ,             [80 -  ,         .       ,     ,    ,    ,        ..,     ,   ,    .          ,  ,       ,          . ( .   :    . .: , 1998. . 317.)].

              ,   ,        ,            .

     .      ,     -  ,   ,         ,       .   ,         ,     .   ,       .   -   3          -: 1,7   ,   ,  1      ,    ,     ,   .  5          -            ,   [81 -  . .       - , http://www.hrights.ru/text/b3/Chapter2.htm.].

  :              ?          ,    ,     ,   ?           .   .       ,     ,   ,      .        ,      .        ,  .

    ,      ,  ,    ,     .     ,        ,     .          ,   ,  ,   .




4.  


  XX.     ,    ,      [82 -       .    .   .  1994.            -  3. ,     ,      .       ,      ,  ,        .      1999.   ,      .    ,    .      ,         ,  - . ,  ,          ,   ,     .].       .              1980-   1990- .

, ,    ,      .      ,       1918.,     .

   ,          ,    ,    .

            1830-1840- .[83 -  . .     //  . 1994. 5. .4056.].          ,       ,     ,    ,  ,      [84 -  . . :  , , ,   . ., 2000. .5759.].     ,  ,    1929.  ,    ,     [85 -  . .    (19902000). .:  . , 2001. .5354.].

     .          .       .     ,    .       , .         ,            .     , ,         .

 .      ,        .      ,      ,     19411945.   19481953.           .

      .  :       ,      ,              .      ,      ,   ,     ,        [86 - Woodward S. L. Balkan Tragedy. Chaos and Dissolution after the Cold War. Washington: The Brookings Institution, 1995. C. 45.].  ,   .              .         .

   ,          , ,   ,   ,   .  ,       ,     ,   .            ,   ,         .

    .        ,      1945.,     ,           ,  . .       .       ,      1940-   1950- .,      ,         . ,       ,     .               .           ,          .

      1940- .      -       .   ,              .  ,    ,          .      ,        ,        .

 1989.       ,        .  1949.        ,   ,       .  1955.           .  1965.         .              ,            .

    19791989.  ,    ,  ,  ,      ,    ,         .

     ,   1989.,           .           .

 . ,   ,        1980- .       .    ,     ,      ,   .      ,     ,     .           ,        .        .

     1970- . .  ,       (. . 1.1).



 1.1.   ,     




: UN Statistics Division (http://unstats.un.org/unsd/cdb (http://unstats.un.org/unsd/cdb)); Mitchell . R. International Historical Statistics. Europe 17501993. London: Macmillan Reference LTD., 1998.



 ,     ,    ,      ,           [87 - Ward . The firm in Illiria: Market syndicalism // American Economic Review. 1958. Vol. 48. N


4. P.266289; Ward B. The Socialist Economy: A Study of Organizational Alternatives. N. Y: Random House, 1967.].

 .     ,  , ,  .    ,      ,      , ,          .   ,        ,     .

  .   1989.     ,      ,    .   ,     ,       ,   . 19  1989.       ,       .         ,     ,      .             .  ,    1989. 50%  ,   1990.    [88 - Woodward S. L. Balkan Tragedy. Chaos and Dissolution after the Cold War. Washington: The Brookings Institution, 1995. P. 129.].

          .    ,  . ,       ,    .   ,  ,     ,  .

   ,     ,   .     ,     .      .       ,    ,    .         20. , 200.    , 350.    .      70. , 2      [89 - Kovacevic S., Daji . Hronologija jugoslovenske krize 19421993. Beograd: IES, 1994. S. 284.].

   1990- .          [90 - ., : Bennett C. Yugoslavia's Bloody Collapse: Causes, Course and Consequences. N. Y: New York University Press, 1995; Denitch . Ethnic Nationalism. The Tragic Death of Yugoslavia. Minneapolis; L.: University of Minnesota Press, 1996; Gligorov V. Why Do Countries Break Up? The Case of Yugoslavia. Uppsala: Uppsala University, 1994; Oberschall T. The Fall of Yugoslavia //Journal of the Budapest, University of Economic Sciences. 1992. Vol. XVIII (3).].       ,   ,           ,    ,     ,    ,  .

    19121913.           .       ,    .           [91 - .     1971.     ,       .].  ,   1990.       .    ,              .

   ,    ,   .       , ,  ,       . .    1980- .                    ,     ,     , , [92 -     ,           .:  .          ||     .   . . 1517  1996. . . 13.].            ,   . ,             .

  ,      1986.,     ,      ,   ,          ,    .    ,      ,         1986.  ,    ,   ,      ,           [93 - jh ., h.  :   . B: , 1995. . 150.].               ,       ,       [94 -        ,   2005. .   ,   ,              .        , ,    ,  -.   ,   .   ,        .].

  ,    ,   ,  ,       ,    , .      1980- .  ,             ,     .     ,      ,             , .       ,   ,       .   1989.    .  .        86%     [95 - Meier V. Yugoslavia: A History of its Demise. L.; N. Y: Routledge, 1995.].

  ,    ,        ,       , ,  .   ,             - ,    .     ,           ,        .   ,     .  ,          ,  .

 ,    ,   ,      ,    ,    . 25%       .  ,            ,     .             ,     .          (       ),     .    .

 ,     ,      .     1990.     ,  .   .    [96 - DornbuschR.. EdwardsS. The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1991.].      ,     .           . ,      1990.,       . ,         


* * *

   XX.     ,     . ,    ,    .         .       .   ,   ,   .         .  ,     ,    ,     .

  ,      ,    ,    ,  - ,  ,          .  ,       -.    .        ,          XX.,     .   ,     .




 2

 :  


      ,    ,        ,      .

.-. .   . 


    ,       ,             .  ,   ,  ,      ,  ,   .  ,        ,    .  ,   .      .        ,    .

,    (       ,  ,    ),      .           300400 .      (     [97 -  ,       ,        , ,    ,     .]),      ,   , ,  ,      ,     .        .

 ,       ,  75  (   ),   .    ,       , .            .

 ,    ,       ,  ,       .    ,    ,            .

        ,        ,      ,   .        ,             .                ,       1980-   1990- .

  ,    ,        ,        ,   .




1.        


         , , [98 -        ,    ,          .        .    XIX.,    .  .:  .  .   :   . .127170.].  ,          .     ,  .    ,    ,        .

.  ,       ,          , .    ,   ,   ,    ,       .     ,    ,   [99 - Olson . Power and Prosperity. Outgrowing Communist and Capitalist Dictatorships. N. Y: Basic Books, 2000.].     ,        .  ,   ,   .         ,      .       ,     .       ,      , ,  ,    .     ,   .

     , ,     ( ,  )       , .         ,         ,  ,  .

   -,      ,   ,     ,    ,     .            [100 - . :  E.  .   :   .  7.].   ,          [101 -    ,     ,         , .: Deutsch . W. Social Mobilization and Political Development // American Political Science Review. 1961. September. Vol. 55. P 494, 495; Eisenstadt S. N. (ed.) Comparative Social Problems. N. Y: Free Press of Glencoe, Inc., 1964; Lipset S. M. Political Man. Garden City. N. Y: Doubleday & Company, Inc., 1960.].            ,    ,     .

  XVIII.           ,      ,   .     I,     . , ,          ,   .    ,     ,     .

   ,             (    )        .       XVIII.   ,       ,  [102 - .  ,     ,      .    .           . -     .     ,       . (.: Paine . Common Sense and Other Political Writings. N. Y; L.: Putnam, 1783.)].

    XVIIXVIII.   ,          .      ,            ;  ,      , ,      ,   .         .        ,        .

     ,   ,   - ,     ,     .    ,         ,  .

      ,       [103 -        ,    ,   ,     .        ,            . (.: Przeworski A. et.al. Democracy and Development. Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 19501990. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000.)].  ,     ,    :    ,    ,    ,   .     ,  .          .       .

    ,     ,   ,    ,    ,     ,    ,         .       [104 -    ,               ,         ,    ;        .],      .      ,      ,  .   ,     ,            1970- [105 -  1973.  ,  1974.  ,   1970- .  .].         .

  ,      ,  ,       .             ,        ,    ,          .   , ,        ,  ,  [106 -   1624.  : ,    ,   . (.: Hill . The Century of Revolution. 16031714. N. Y.; L.:  Norton & Company, 1982. P. 38.)].

 ,          .       ,    ,         .      .   ,          ,  ,           XIX    XX.[107 - Huntington S. P. The Third Wave. Democratization in the Twentieth Century. Norman; L.: University of Oklahoma Press, 1993. P.1618.].

  ,            ,             ,   - .           ( ,  ,       ) .        .     ,    ,       .      ,  ,    ,    ;           ,       ;        ,         [108 -           .: Moore . Jr. Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy. Boston: Beacon Press, 1967. P. 415.].

      ,  .    ,  ,         .   ,     (   ,  )    .

  1960- .,        ,     ,       .  1959.   ,           [109 - De SchweinitZ K.Jr. Industrialization, Labor Controls and Democracy // Economic Development and Cultural Change. 1959. Vol. 7 (4). P.385404.].

  ,        .  .          ,         .                    .    ,      .

  ,     ,      .   ,   ,  ,  ,    ,           ,      .       ,        .       .         .




2.   


,        ,    (   ,  ),  , .   ,   ,    , ,   ,   [110 -     ,  ,    ,         ,     . (.: . . .: ; ACT, 1999. .344349.)].   ,  ,    , , [111 - .      :     ,    ,      ,     .       . (.:  . . .: -, 1999. . 385.)].      [112 -  .-.   .  / . . . .   . . -. .: KAHOH-;  , 1998. . 18.].

 ,     ,        ,   .      ,     ,        .    ,       [113 -  ,     ,   . . (.: Linz J.  Authoritarian Regime: Spain / . Allardt, Y. Lettunen (eds.). Cleavages, Ideologies and Party Systems: Contributions to Comparative Political Sociology // Transactions of the Westermarck Society 1964. Vol. 10. P 292343.)    .: Eisenstadt S. N. Modernization: Protest and Change. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc.; Englewood Cliffs, 1966. P. 69.].

   ;   -        ,   .         .     .            .

 ,     , [114 -     ,     1990- .,  9,3 . (.: Przeworski A. ET.AL. Democracy and Development. Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 19501990. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000. P 50.)].    ,        ,        ,  ,   ,   ,    .

   ,        ,    .   ,        .         ,        ,       ,        ,        [115 - Vacs . . Authoritarian Breakdown and Redemocratization in Argentina / Malloy J.M., Seligson M.A. (eds). Authoritarians and Democrats. Regime Transition in Latin America. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1987. P.1542.].     , ,    ,        ,       ,   ,       .

     . ,      XX.,    ,     .          ,        .  :   [116 -   ,            ,   ,      1964. (.: Baretta S. R. D., Markoff J. Brazil's Ahertura: A Transition from What to Whatf / Malloy J.M., Seligson M.A. (eds). Authoritarians and Democrats. Regime Transition in Latin America. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1987.)].

.     ,   ,    .        ,     .  ,         .    ,        .             [117 - Olson . Power and Prosperity. Outgrowing Communist and Capitalist Dictatorships. N. Y: Basic Books, 2000. P. 21.].

      . ,    . ,     ,    [118 - Burke E. Reflections on the Revolution in France. Chicago: Regnery, 1955. P. 92.].     ,  ,     ,     , ,                  .

     ,     , ,  , .   ,        ,        ,   ,   .           [119 -  E.  .   :   .  15.].   ,  ,      . ,   XX.   ,     ,      .     ,   ,   ,     .

      ,   ,    [120 -      ,        .     ., : Minxin Pei. From Reform to Revolution: The Demise of Communism in China and the Soviet Union. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1994.].       .               .               .          ,  ,      ,   ,    .     ,       ,    ,    ,         .     ,   .     ,      ,  ,    .

       .       :   ,    ,   .        :  ,  ,  .

      ,        .    ,     .       ,   .           .       ,    ,  .

     ,   ,   ,          - : ,   ,   .       ,         ,      .  ,          .

  XIX   XX.          .   10 ,  1910.,     .   ,    4 ,    ,  ,      .    ,       .         10 .     [121 - Cline H.F. The United States and Mexico. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1963. P. 52; Parker H. B. A History of Mexico. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1950. P. 308.].

       .  ,       .      . ,   ,  ,     ,          ,  ,      .      ,   ,     .   ,     .

    ,     ,        .   1970- .    ,         .         .    ,   .      .     ,    .         ,    ,     .      .  ,     ,   .    1980- .    ,    .  1987.          ,     [122 -  . .  ,     . .: Academia, 2000. . 139.].

    ,     1960- .    ,   .     ,    ,   [123 - Medhurst . Spain s Evolutionary Pathway from Dictatorship to Democracy / G. Pridham (ed.). The New Mediterranean Democracies: Regime Transition in Spain, Greece and Portugal. L.: Frank Cass, 1984. P 30, 31.].

  ,  ,      .   ,   ,     ,     ,   ,      ,      .        ,     .

  ,     , .      ,     .        ,   .  ,   ,       .     ,  ,     ,     ,              .    ,        , -  , . , ,    ,    ,         .  ,       ,     .

 ,    ,    ,        .         .    ,        .

         1989.       .      . ,    ,     [124 -  ., Bept . .   . , , . .:   , 1999. . 433.].

        ,       .       ,    .

-        ,    .           [125 -                 ?      :,   .   ,    . (.: New York Times. 1961. December 4. P 10. . no: Huntington S. P. Political Order in Changing Societies. New Haven; L.: Yale University Press, 1968. P. 211.) ,     ,          .       .    ,   .      .]. -    .   ,     , ,  .       ,      ,  .   ,     .


* * *

  1950- .  .     .    1950- .         .           1950  1957.  2,3%. ,      ,  ,    .       ,    .     ,     .    ,    ,   .       ,   .        .

     :  ,     ,   ;     ;    ,    ;      .     ,        [126 - Creeping Revolt. Cuba // Time. 1957. January 7. P. 33.].

  ,   .   1956.   82,      12.  1957.  ,  : 50  100?        1000.   1958.    5-10. [127 - Phillips R. . Cuba Says Rebels Number Only jo // New York Times.1957. March 2; Matthews H.L. Castro Rebels Gain In Face of Offensive By the Cuban Army // New York Times. 1957. June 9. P. 1, 13; Cuban Rebels. Andrew St. George interview with Fidel Castro // Look. 1958. Feb. 4. P. 30; Phillips R. H. Castro's Power At Peak On Eve of Cuban Vote // The New York Times. 1958. November 2. 4E; Batista's Drive To Crush Rebels Called Failure // The New York Times. 1958. July 2. P. 1; Into the Third Year. Cuba // Time.1958. December 1. P. 32.].              ,  ,        [128 -  .   . .:  -   . 1974. .210217.].        . [129 - Matthews . L. Rebel Strength Gaining in Cuba, But Batista Has the Upper Hand // The New York Times. Monday. 1957. February 25; Huberman L., Sweezy P. M. Cuba: Anatomy of a Revolution. N. Y: Monthly Review Press, 1960. P. 59, 60.].

, ,   ,      . ,     ,        .   ,       .




3.   


      .     ,   ,   , ,      .       ,   .      ,     1978.,       :   ,       . ,       .      ?[130 - Sullivan W. . Mission to Iran. N. Y.: II Norton, 1981. P. 156.]

    .       .           ,     .          . ,      (1975.)     ,          1979.    .

       .             () .

        .    XX.      ,     ,     . XX.   .  ,      , .  ,   ,  ,                ,    ,      ,    , ,   .

   ,     ,  .            [131 - Przeworski A. et.al. Democracy and Development. Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 19501990. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000.].

   .          ,   ,    .           .  -        .

    ,  .                .      .   ,    .  XX.   ,    ,     .  ,    .  1994.       ,     .       19971998. - ,        [132 - DeLong J. . International Financial Crises in the 1990s: The Analytics. November 2001. http://www.j-hradford-delong.net/; Dornbusch R. A Primer on Emerging Market Crises // NBER Working Paper 8326. 2001; Goldstein M. IMF Structural Programs. Paper prepared for the NBER Conference on Economic and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies. Woodstock, Vermont. 2000. October 1921.].

  1990- .        ,  ,             1980- .             [133 - Amuzegar J. Managing the Oil Wealth: OPEC's Windfalls and Pitfalls. L.; N. Y: I.B. Tauris, 1999.].        ,       -  [134 - Benedict R. OG. Anderson (ed.). Violence and the State in Suharto's Indonesia New York: Southeast Asia Program Publications, Cornell University, 2001; Hal Hill. Indonesia: The Strange and Sudden Death of a Tiger Economy // Oxford. Development Studies. 2000. Vol. 28 (2). P 117139.].

   ,     ,  ,   ,  ,  .   ,  .   ,    ,     ,    ,     ,    .

  ,    ,  ,       ,   . ,      ,      ,    ,   . ,        ,  ,            .

       ,      .      . ,      19701978.,           ,    .  1970.          .  1972.      13. 1974.   , ,      .   1970- .     .  19771978.   ,   ,     [135 - Binnendijk . (ed.). Authoritarian Regimes in Transition. Washington: Foreign Service Institute of the US Department of State, 1987.].

      ,          , ,     ,  ,   .               , ,  .       ,   .

        .     , ,       ,       .   :    ;    (   );      ( ).         .  , ,   .   26    1950- .             [136 -  ,       ,  ,  ,      ,  ,    .    .       -        ,   -     .].

        .    ,  ;    ,     ,      . ,      ,  ,      ,   -   [137 - .  :      ,    ,   , ,  , ,   ,      . (.: Lippman W. New York Herald Tribune. 1963. December 10.)    H.    .         1918.           ,            ,     ,  , ,    . ( .    //  . . 1918.   . .374396.)].       2003. ,      ,          ,  ,    ,   .

,            , ,   ,      . [138 - Weber . Politik als Beruf. Miinchen, 1919.].             ,  .       ,       .    ,    ,    ,         .         .

  ,    ,   , ,   .     ,      :   ,        [139 -         .: O'Donnell G., Schmitter . ., Whitehead L. (eds.). Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions About Uncertain Democracies. Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986.].

 ,          .          ,     ,    ,     .       ,     ,    ,        ,        .          .

        ,          .  1980- .     .       10                  .       [140 - Maravall J. The Transition to Democracy in Spain. L.; Canberra; N. Y: Croom Helm, St.Martin's Press, 1982; Gilmour D. The Transformation of Spain: From Franco to Constitutional Monarchy. L.: Quartet Books, 1985.].   ,           .

  ,   ,  ,           ,   .     ,             [141 - O'Donnell G., Schmitter P. (eds.). Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies. Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986. P. 41.].     , ,      ,            .     ,            .  ,         .




 3

 


    !

   , -   

 10   20   ,      

   , -   


 19851986.        .  -    -      .

            23  1995.     :

		  ,
		  
		 ,   
		  
		  ,
		  ,  ,
		   
		  

  ,    , ,       ,           . ,   ,  ? ,      .     ,          ,    ,       .

  ,     ,    .       ,           ,         ,    ,      .

         ,     ,           .         1980-   1990- .,    ,     , ,      -.     




1.  


     ,     ,         XVIXVII.,   .     ,  ,    ,    ,             .

 160 ,  1503  1660.,     16. .       .      185         20%[142 - Elliott J. . Imperial Spain 1469-1/16. L.: Edward Arnold Publishers LTD., 1965. P. 174.].          .3.1.

                  ,    ,  [143 -  . , ,     , -,                   . (.: Grice-Hutchinson . The School of Salamanca. Readings in Spanish Monetary Theory, 15441605. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1952. P.9196.)  ,        ,   . . (Hamilton E.J. American Treasure and the Price Revolution in Spain, 15011650. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1934.)          ,    . (., : Nadal J. . La Revolucion de los Precios Espanoles en el Siglo XVI// Hispania. 1959. Vol. XIX. P.503529.)    ,    XVI   XVII.           .   60-70- . XV.          .     1470  1500.  17. (.: Wilks I. Wangara, Akan and the Portuguese in the Fifteenth and Sixteenth Centuries / Wilks I. (ed.). Forests of Gold: Essays on the Akan and the Kingdom ofAsante. Athens: Ohio, 1993. P.139).       XV.      ,      . (.: Munro J. The Monetary Origins of the Price Revolution: South German Silver Mining, Merchant-Banking, and Venetian Commerce, 147(^1540. Department of Economics and University of Toronto. Working Paper. June. 1999. 8; Outhwaite R. B. Inflation in Tudor and Early Stuart England. Studies in Economic and Social History Series. L.: Macmillan, 1969; Burke P. (ed.). Economy and Society in Early Modern Europe: Essays from Annales. L.: Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1972.)         , , , ,   15261535.  8090  . (.: Nef J. Silver Production in Central Europe, 14501618 // Journal of Political Economy. 1941. Vol. 49. P.575591.)   ,     ,            XVIXVII.    . (.: Marjorie Grice-Hutchinson. Op. cit.)].  ,       ,   ,      (. 3.2).       .        [144 -     ,            .:  .   ,         . 2005. 1. . 12.].             ,       .




.3.1.         15031650.



*    1580.

: : Hamilton . J. American Treasure and the Price Revolution in Spain, 15011650. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1934. P. 34.    : Flynn D. . Fiscal crisis and the decline of Spain (Castile) //The Journal of Economic History. 1982. Vol. 42. P. 142.




.3.2.      (-)  15031650.,    



.  1580.   100%.

: Flynn D. 0. Fiscal crisis and the decline of Spain (Castile) // The Journal of Economic History. 1982. Vol. 42. P. 142.



  XVI.        .     .             .         ,     . ,   ,  .         .

  ,    ,      .  1600.  ,         ,  ,    , ,      [145 - Gonzalez de Cellorigo M. Memorial de la Politica Necesaria  util Restauracion a la Republica de Espana. Valladolid, 1600 / Grice-Hutchinson M. (ed.). The School of Salamanca: Readings in Spanish Monetary History 15441605. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1952.].      1603.    :      ,      [146 - Ramirez A. Epistolario de Justo Lapsio  los espanoles. Madrid: Castalia, D. L.,1966. P. 374. . no: Elliott J. H. Spain and Its World, 150^1700. Selected Essays. New Haven; L.: Yale University Press, 1989. P 25.].

            XVI.,  ,  .            .      .         .           ,     .

             .        ,    ,     .      .

  XVI.      .  1600.     [147 - Davies R. . The Golden Century of Spain, 15011621. L.: Macmillan & Co Ltd., 1954. P 263, 264.].          .            .    ,     XVI.    .      1557, 1575, 1598, 1607, 1636,1647, 1653.[148 - Elliot J. H. Imperial Spain 1469-1/16. L.: Edward Arnold Publishers LTD., 1965.].

  ,     ,     , .       ,    ,     ,  ,     ,          [149 - Kennedy P. The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000. N. Y: Random House, 1987. P. 55.].

,     ,     ,    .  1609.            .  10   ,       .    ,               ,    .

   ( 1621  1643.) ,     ,     (  ,       ),   ,     [150 -          1621.   . (.: Elliott J. . Imperial Spain, 1469-1/16. L.: Edward Arnold Publishers LTD., 1965.)],   .  ,    .   ,            ,   .  1631.,    ,     :           ,      ,         [151 - Elliott J. H. Spain and Its World, 15001700. Selected Essays. New Haven; L.: Yale University Press, 1989. P. 25.].

 1640.         ,       ,   .   1640.  :             [152 - Trevor-Roper H. The Crisis of the Seventeenth Century. N. Y.: Liberty Fund,1967. P 51.].    ,   1643.         .

  XVIXVII.  ,   ,      ,      ,     ,       . ,    ,          ,  XX.,      ,  .




2.     


,      XVIXVII.,     XVIII   XIX.,      .  -   ,   ,        ,         .  XX. ,   , ,   .

 1965  1998.       ,    ,     1%  ,     2%,     3%,   (19701995.)  6%  .           19651998.   1,3%         2,2%        [153 - World Development Indicators 2000. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2000.].

      ,       .  ,    , .          ,    ,     ,     . ,        [154 -      .: Sachs J. D., Warner . . Economic Convergence and Economic Policy. NBER Working Paper 5039.1995; Wood A., Berge K. Exporting Manufactures: Human Resources, Natural Resources and Trade Policy // Journal of Development Studies. 1997. Vol. 34 (1). P.3559; Gylfason ., Herbertsson . ., Zoega G. A Mixed Blessing: Natural Resources and Economic Growth // Macroeconomic Dynamics. 1999. Vol. 3. P.204225; Syrquin M., Chenery H.B. Patterns of Development, 1950 to 1983. World Bank Discussion Paper 41. Washington: World Bank, 1989.].              [155 -  ,           , .: Gelb . . Windfall Gains: Blessing or Curse? N. Y: Oxford University Press, 1988; Sachs J. D., Warner A. M. Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth. NBER Working Paper 5398. 1995; Sachs J. D., Warner A.M. The Big Push, Natural Resource Booms and Growth // Journal of Development Economics. 1999. Vol. 59. P.4376; Gylfason ., Herbertsson . ., Zoega G. A Mixed Blessing: Natural Resources and Economic Growth // Macroeconomic Dynamics. 1999. Vol. 3. P.204225; Ranis G. The Political Economy of Development Policy Change / Meier G.M. (ed.). Politics and Policy Making in Developing Countries: Perspectives on the New Political Economy. San Francisco: ICS Press, 1991; Lal D., Myint H. The Political Economy of Poverty, Equity and Growth. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1996.].  ,          , ,  ,    .

     ,   , .          1965.    35      ,      ,   350 . (  1995.).

 1965.     245 .  2000.      [156 - Sala-i-Martin X., Subramanian A. Addressing the Natural Resource Curse: An Illustration From Nigeria. NBER Working Paper 9804. June 2003. P 4.].

   ,   ,   ,        [157 -  , ,              ,   . (.: Karl . L. The Paradox of Plenty: Oil Booms and Petro-States. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1997.)].   ,    ,  [158 -  ,   ,       , .: Cardenas ., Partow 2. Oil, Coffee and Dynamic Commons Problem in Colombia. Inter-American Development Bank Office of the Chief Economist Research Network Document R-335.1998.].

 ,                  ,      [159 -  ,        ,     , ,       ,   . (         .: Karl . L. The Paradox of Plenty: Oil Booms and Petro-States. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1997.)   ,    ,   1980- .  90%         . (.: Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Achievements of the Development Plans 19701986. Riyadh: Ministry of Planning Press, 1986.)            ,               . .     ,                 .   ,       . (.:  .      //  .,  .-.    :   . .: , 2004.)] (. . 3.1).



 3.1.         ,      19711995.     (%)




:   : Auty R. . (ed.). Resource Abundance and Economic Development. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2004 (,  ); Salazar-Carrillo J. Oil and Development in Venezuela during the Twentieth Century. Praeger Publishers, Westport, CT, 1994 ().



 ,                .    (  ),        ,   ,      .       ,      [160 - North D. . Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990.   ,    ,   ,   ,       ,      . (.: McDonald . Suharto's Indonesia. Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press, 1981.)].   ,         (   ,       ),  ,        ,       ,   ,    [161 -                    .: Sala-i-Martin X., Subramanian . Addressing the Natural Resource Curse: An Illustration From Nigeria. NBER Working Paper 9804. June 2003; Mehlum ., Moene . ., Torvik R. Institutions and the Resource Curse || Economic Journal. 2005. Vol. 116. N 508. E 1-20; Bulte E. H., Damania R., Deacon R. T. Resource Abundance, Poverty and Development. World Development 2005. http://www.econ.ucsb. edu/papers/wp2i-03.pdf.].

   .   . -    :



      ,   ,       ,  ,    :      !  ,        , ,    ,      !     , -  -     ,     ,    ,    [162 - - M. E. . .  10. .: - , 1988. . 7.  . . 19.].


   ,   , .    ,     ,  ,   ,   ,   ,      ,     [163 - Leamer . ., Maul ., Rodriguez S., Schott . . Does Natural Resource Abundance Increase Latin American Income Inequality f // Journal of Development Economics. 1999. Vol. 59 (1). P.342.].

 ,    ,  ,      [164 - Williamson J. G. Growth, Distribution and Demography: Some Lessons from History // Explorations in Economic History. 1998. 34 (3). P 241271.].      ,        ,      ,  ,  .        [165 - Krueger A. Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Liberalization Attempts and Consequences. N. Y.: Columbia University Press, 1978.              . : Tornell A., Lane P. Voracity and Growth // American Economic Review. 1999. Vol. 89. P.2246; Mauro P. Corruption and Growth II Quarterly Journal of Economics. 1995. Vol. 90. P.681712; Leite C., We 1 dm ANN M. Does Mother Nature Corrupt? Natural Resources, Corruption and Economic Growth. IMF Working Paper WP/99/85,1999.].         ,       [166 - Collier P., Hoffler A. Greed and Grievance in African Civil Wars. L.: Oxford University Press, 2004.].

                 .            .                     ,       [167 - Gylfason T. Natural resources; education and economic development // European Economic Review. 2001. Vol. 45. P. 851.].

  .    ,     ,         ,  . , , ,     .   ,      ,        ,      [168 - May .   ,     //    . 2005. 1.].   ,     ,      (, , , )[169 - Sachs J., Warner A. M. Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth // Mayer J., Chambers B., Farooq A. (eds.). Development Policies in Natural Resource Economies. Cheltenham  Northampton: Edward Elgar, 1999. P 26.]. ,   ,    ,     , ,   ,     .

,    ,  ,          .         1960- .              [170 - Corden M., Neary J. P. Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: A Survey // Economic Journal. 1982. December. Vol. 92. P 826844; Kamas L. Dutch Disease Economics and the Colombian Export Boom // World Development. 1986. September; Davies G. A. Learning to Love the Dutch Disease: Evidence from the Mineral Economies // World Development. 1995. Vol. 23 (10). P 17651779; Gylfason T. Lessons from the Dutch Disease: Causes, Treatment and Cures. Institute of Economic Studies. Working Paper Series 01/06. August 2001; Krugman P. The Narrow Moving Band, the Dutch Disease and the Competitive Consequences of MRS. Thatcher: Notes on Trade in the Presence of Scale Economies // Journal of Development Economics. 1987. Vol. 27. P 4155; Moiseev A. Analysis of Influence of the Dutch Disease and Taxation on Economic Welfare. Working Paper BSP/99/030.1999; Struthers J. J. Nigerian Oil and Exchange Rates: Indicators of Dutch Disease // Development and Change. 1990. Vol. 21 (2). P 309341; Jazayeri A. Economic Adjustment in Oil-based Economies. Aldershot: Avebury, 1988.]. ,     ,      .        .           , ,   (  ) [171 -      .          .         .   ,     ,  . (.:  ., - .,  .      19982002. .: , 2003.)].     ,   ,            (),  ().

    ,                 (         [172 - Sachs J. D., Warner A.M. The Curse of Natural Resources // European Economic Review. 2001. Vol. 45. P.827838.]). ,        ,     ,         [173 - Gylfason ., Herbertsson . ., Zoega G. A Mixed Blessing: Natural Resources and Economic Growth // Macroeconomic Dynamics. 1999. Vol. 3. P 204225; Gylfason T. Natural Resources, Education and Economic Development. Paper presented at the 15th Annual Congress of the European Economic Association. Bolzano. August-September 2000.].    ,           .

          .   ,            ,   [174 - Gylfason T. Natural Resources and Economic Growth: A Nordic Perspective on the Dutch Disease. WIDER Working Papers 167. October 1999.].  ,            ,    -:     ,       .

 1950-   1960- .   ,    ,      ,                .  ,        1920-1930- .,     ,       ,        . [175 - PrebischR. Commercial Policy in the Underdeveloped Countries // American Economic Review. 1949. Vol. 49. P 251273; Prebisch R. International Trade and Payments in an Era of Coexistence: Commercial Policy in Underdeveloped Countries // The American Economic Review. 1959. May. Vol. 49. Issue 2. Papers and Proceedings of the Seventy-first Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association. P 251273; Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. N. Y: United Nations, 1968; La mano de obra  el desarrollo Economico de America Latina en los ultimos anos. Economic Commission for Latin America. N. Y: United Nations, 1964.].

     XX. ,               .    .           1%  .     ,          .    ,           ,    [176 - Cashin P., McDermott C. J., Scott A. The Long-Ran Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability. IMF Working Paper, 2001.].

  ,    .  :             ,    ,   [177 - Samuels on P. A. Lessons from the Current Economic Expansion // The American Economic Review. 1974. Vol. 64 (2). P.7576.].            XX.     (.3.4).




.3.3.          19502004.

: International Financial Statistics 2005, IMF



,     , .     ,      .     .        ,      ,    .

  ,      1980- .,  ,    ,   1981  1985.      4 ,        .   ,       ,       .      ,      [178 - Skeet I. OPEC: Twenty-Five Years of Prices and Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988. P 195.    ,       , .: Dowling .., Hilton F. G. Oil in the 1980s: An OECD Perspective // Shojai S., Katz B. S. (eds.). The Oil Market in the 1980s: A Decade of Decline. New York: Praeger, 1992. P 77.      ,             .: Mikesell R. F. The World Copper Industry. Structure and Economic Analysis. Baltimore; L.: Published for Resources for the Future by The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1957.].




.3.4.             (19602004.)



.            .

:    IMFIFS, 2005; World Band World Development Indicators (  WB WDI)



           .           .             [179 - Pritchett L. Patterns of Economic Growth: Hills, Plateaus, Mountains, and Plains. Policy Research Working Paper Series 1947. 1998; Mabro R. OPEC Behavior 19601998: A Review of the Literature // Journal of Energy Literature. 1998. June. Vol. 4 (1). P.327.].         ,      ,     . . 3.33.9 ,               .

         [180 - Brunner A. D. El Nino and World Primary Commodity Prices: Warm Water or Hot Air? IMF Working Paper, 2000. P. 3.]. ,     ,    .   1970- .          ,    .      ,        ,       .          ,   [181 - Hamilton J. D. What Is an Oil Shock? NBER Working Paper 7755. 2000.]. ,              .

 ,    ,     .  ,       .       ,  ,    XX.[182 - Falcoff . Modern Chile 19/0-1989:  Critical History. New Brunswick L.: Transaction Publishers, 1989.],    ,          .




.3.5.          19651975.

.       2957.

: Mikesell R. F. The World Copper Industry. Structure and Economic Analisys. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1979.




.3.6.            19781984.

: International Financial Statistics 2004, IMF




.3.7.      19781984.

:  : Maddison A. The World Economy: Historical Statistics. Paris: OECD, 2004.




.3.8.            19881995.

: International Financial Statistics 2004, IMF




.3.9.      19881994.

:  : Maddison A. The World Economy: Historical Statistics, OECD, Paris 2004.



       ,         ,  .          .       ,      ,  ,   ,          .

          .           1940-   1950- .   ,            .      .      1950- .       .

 1973.   60-            .     ,   .   1020        .          ,     .  1973.         .

    ,   60-  1973.,              5,5      1978.  2,4        .        ,        500.   [183 - Skeet I. OPEC: Twenty-Five Years of Prices and Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988. P 157,158.].               1979.     3,9   ,   ,       (5,7     1977.[184 - Kanovsky E. Economic Implications for the Region and World Oil Market // Karsh E. (ed.). The Iran-Iraq War: Impact and Implications. L.: MacMillan Press, 1989. P. 241.]).   1980.  - ,       .        .




.3.10.           19791981.

.              .

: International Financial Statistics 2004, IMF.




.3.11.           19851986.

   1580.

:  : Hamilton . J. American Treasure and the Price Revolution in Spain, 15011650. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1934. P. 34.    : Flyn n D. 0. Fiscal crisis and the decline of Spain (Castile) // The Journal of Economic History. 1982. Vol. 42. P. 142.



  ,         .      ,      .   1980- .  ,   19791981.    .  19851986.    {.3.10, 3.11).    19801981.  .

  ,       ,          .    ,      ,      (. . 3.2).



 3.2.        -  19711990.     (%)




:    : Salazar-Carrillo J. Oil and Development in Venezuela during the Twentieth Century. Praeger Publishers, Westport, CT, 1994; Mitchell B. R. International Historical Statistics. L: Macmillan Reference LTD., 1998; WD WDI.



  ,                     .        [185 - Jadresic ., Zahler R. Chile's Rapid Growth in the 1990s: Good Policies, Good Luck or Political Change? IMF Working Paper WP 00/153. 2000.]. ,   ,      ,    , .    , ,    ,     .          ,    ,        ,     .        .     ,   .

   ,    ,           10%   .    ,  ,     ,     .     .   ,      ,         [186 - Rodrik D. Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governmentsf // The Journal of Political Economy. 1998. Vol. 106 (5). P.9971032; Daniel J. A. Hedging Government Oil Price Risk. IMF Working Paper, 2001; Washington Post. March 27. 1991.].

  ,          .        ,       ,     .     ,   ,  -,   .        .       ,      .

           ,       ,      .        .

   ,       ,     .       .   -:    ,    ,    ,    .

     . ,         ,    ,   ,          ,   ,   ,  .       .




3.   


   .                        ,  ,           ,    [187 - Amuzegar J. Managing the Oil Wealth: OPEC's Windfalls and Pitfalls. L.; N. Y: I. B. Tauris Publishers, 2001. P. 12.].          ,   .              ,    ,      .

    . ,     ,   ,  ,     ,       ,      [188 - De Santis R. A. Crude Oil Price Fluctuations and Saudi Arabian Behaviour. Kiel Working Paper 1014. October 2000. P. 6.].

   ,          ,   . ,       .   ,       ,           ,    .    ,             ,  .         .         .         .         .3.12.




.3.12.          (18802004.)



*    2000. (  ,    ,    2000.      .)

:  : International Financial Statistics 2004, IMF; Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Website, US Department of Energy (http://www.eere.energy.gov).




4.     XX 


   XX.      ,   .   1928.         7     (    -, ,  -,  ,  ,       ),  , ,     .        .

      ,       .   .          ,     ,   ,    [189 - Yergin D. The Prize. The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power. N. Y: Simon and Schuster, 1992.]. -  ,    ,       .              ,     .  ,       ,     ,     ,  .    ,      ,          .   ,     1990-   2000- . ,       .       .

 1950-1960- .     ,            ,      .       .         ,  .           ,     ,  1960- .         .     ,                , .        .      ,    [190 - Amuzegar J. Managing the Oil Wealth: OPEC's Windfalls and Pitfalls. L.; N. Y: I. B. Tauris Publishers, 2001. P. 24.].

     ,    ,     . ,     ,     .        ,      ,     .   -     1956.  ,       ,             , .   15       ,   , .  1950- .          .

     ,              50:50.  ,           ,     [191 - Amuzegar J. Managing the Oil Wealth: OPEC's Windfalls and Pitfalls. L.; N. Y: I. B. Tauris Publishers, 2001. P. 25.].

,   ,          ,  ,          .       ,   ,  ,  .      1960.  , , ,    .      1961.,      1962.,     1967.,    1969.,    1971.,    1973.,    1974.         .          .

,     ,     ,         ,   ,   [192 - Skeet I. OPEC: Twenty-Five Years of Prices and Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988;  P. H.      19731983.    . .: , 1990. . 80.].  1968.      .        ,     ,   .   19701973. ,     ,      [193 - Penrose . Oil and the International Economy: Multinational Aspects, 1900-1973 // Ferrier R.W., Fursenko A. (eds.). Oil in the World Economy. L.; N. Y: Routledge, 1989. P. 14.].    1960- .   ,             [194 - Amuzegar J. Managing the Oil Wealth: OPEC's Windfalls and Pitfalls. P. 28.].

 ,    1970- .,     ,        [195 -  1869.        2004.  18 . 59  (  2000. 18,43 .)  .   ,   1958. 16 .   (  2004.),   1970.  13 . (  2000. 15  12 . )  . (.: Oil Price History and Analysis. 2004. http://www.wtrg.com/prices. htm)].   1970- .     ,       .        .   1971.       100%  [196 - Yergin D. The Prize. The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power. P. 567.].  1967  1973.          19  36%[197 - Darmstadter J., Landsberg H. H. The Economic Background // Vernon R. (ed.). The Oil Crisis. New York: Norton, 1976. P. 31.].   1973.        [198 - Skeet I. OPEC: Twenty-Five Years of Prices and Politics. P. 86.].     -    -[199 - Rybczynski . M., Ray G. F. Historical Background to the World Energy Crisis // Rybczynski T. M. (ed.). The Economics of the Oil Crisis. L.: The Macmillan Press / Trade Policy Research Centre, 1976. P. 2.].

 ,    ,     .   1960- .              ,    .    .             1973.[200 - Barsky R. B., Lutz K. Do We Really Know that Oil Causedthe Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative. NBER Working Paper 8389. July 2001. P 5,14.].

17  1973.             .  ,     , ,     10%,         . 22  1973.   : ,       ,      80%,      ,    [201 - Sobel L. A. (ed.). Energy Crisis. Vol. 1. 19691973. N. Y: Facts on File, Inc., 1974. P.199206.].              1960-   1970- .   .




.3.13.          19721974.



.     2000.     19/2.  8 . 8  .

: International Financial Statistics 2004, IMF.



 1970  1974.          .       ,        ,       .   ,   ,   1 . 1972.  33 . ,   -  (  )[202 - Kanovsky E. Economic Implications for the Region and World Oil Market // Karsh E. (ed.). The Iran-Iraq War: Impact and Implications. L.: MacMillan Press, 1989. P. 231.].    -      ,       .    ,            [203 - Terry Lynn Karl. The Paradox of Plenty: Oil Booms and Petro-States. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1997.].

 19731981.     .      ,      ,     ,    [204 -  P. H.      19/3-1983.    . .: , 1990. .124130.].



 3.3.    , , ,     1975  1985 (  %   )




:    WB WDI.



   ,   1973.     ,     ,   ,       (. . 3.3).

      .      .     ,      ,     .

    19811982.     (. . 3.4).               - .   1973.     .        ,   .    ,    .         . ,    ,   ,         (. . 3.3  3.6). 17  1983.        ,    ,  3 .  .    ,       ,    .          .

     ,     ,     1970- .     ,    ,    19851986.



 3.4.       , , ,     19701985. (  . .)




: U. S. Energy Information Administration http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ international/petroleu. html. WB WDI.



 3.5.    , ,   1973-1985 . (.   )




: U.S. Energy Information Administration http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ international/petroleu. html




 3.6.             19731985.



: OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin 2004. OPEC, 2005. P.22, 34.



      .   .  19811985.,  ,  ,      19791981., ,      :    ,   ,       ,   ,    ,    .

  ,     I  1981. .     .   31 . 76   1982., 28 . 67   1983.  19841985.    27 . (  )[205 - Dowling .., Hilton F. G. Oil in the 1980s: An OECD Perspective // Shojai S., Katz B. S. (eds.). The Oil Market in the 1980s: A Decade of Decline. N. Y: Praeger, 1992. P. 74.].  1985.       2,5   .    4    1981.[206 - Yousaf Hasan J. Mohammad. OPEC Strategies for the Monopoly Oil Profits // Shojai S., Katz B. S. (eds.). The Oil Market in the 1980s: A Decade of Decline. P. 37; Wickham P. Volatility of Oil Prices. IMF Working Paper, 1996.].

  1983.         34  29 .  .       19831985. -      .  1983.       ,      [207 - Se-Hark Park. Falling Oil Prices and Exchange Rate Fluctuation // Shojai S., Katz B. S. (eds.). The Oil Market in the 1980s: A Decade of Decline. P. 6.].   1985.       ,    .




.3.14.       19851986.     



*      2000.

: International Financial Statistics 2004.



13 1985.       ,              [208 - Skeet I. OPEC: Twenty-Five Years of Prices and Politics. P. 207, 208.].        19851986.        .   ,    ,       (. 14).

 1986.            10 .     [209 - Shojai S., Katz . S. (eds.). The Oil Market in the 1980s: A Decade of Decline. N. Y: Praeger, 1992. P. XIII.].  1980  1986.     (  )     64,5%,     76,1%.       [210 - Terry Lynn Karl. The Paradox of Plenty: Oil Booms and Petro-States. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1997. P. 32.].

  1986.     ,          ,      .     .   1986.        ,     .    15,8   [211 - Amuzegar J. Managing the Oil Wealth: OPEC's Windfalls and Pitfalls. P. 13.].       .   1980- .       .     ,       , .    ,  ,      ,  .      (. . 3.7).

 2000.     ,     (   )    (  - ),          (.3.15  3. 16).




.3.15.       19901991.     

*    2000.

: International Financial Statistics 2004.




.3.16.       19971999.     



 3.7.       19862005. (.  1 [212 -    2000. : International Financial Statistics 2004.])




*    2000.

: International Financial Statistics 2005, IMF.




5.,       :   


        1970- .  ,          .            ,   ,       ,   ,    (. . 3.8).



 3.8.      ,     1970.




:  : Maddison A. The World Economy: Historical Statistics. Paris: OECD, 2004.



   1970.          XX.     .     70   .   19501970- .    .    1970-       .   ,      .      ,    19731981.,   ,    ,  .

       .    1990- .        .             .       ,  ,       .

     19731974.        [213 -     1970.   4 ,  1982. 57. (.: Dowling .., Hilton F. G. Oil in the 1980s: An OECD Perspective // Shojai S., Katz B. S. (eds.). The Oil Market in the 1980s: A Decade of Decline. P 76.)           19761980. . :  olio F. J. P. Petroleum and Political Change in Mexico // Latin America Perspectives. Issue 32.1982. Vol. 9 (1). P.6578.].    1970- .      ,       (. . 3.9).  1970.    2,5%       3,5%  .  1983.        14%[214 - Everhart S., Duval-Hernandez R. Management of Oil Windfalls in Mexico. Historical Experience and Policy Options for the Future. Policy Research Working Paper 2592. April 2001. P. 2.].  1974.           0,5%,  1980.      67,3%   .        16,5%[215 - Looney R. E. Economic Policymaking in Mexico: Factors Underlying the 1982 Crisis. Durham: Duke University Press, 1985. P. 40.].



 3.9.           19751985.




: EIA International Petroleum Monthly (http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ ipsr/supply.html), Auty R. M. (ed.). Resource Abundance and Economic Development. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2004.



 ,    ,      ,        1970- .     1976.   .         ,     [216 - Guzman . PEMEXs Finances // Guzman ., Gutierrez R. (eds.). Energy Policy in Mexico. Boulder: Westview Press, 1988.].      .           ,        ,  [217 - Tornell A., Lane P. Are Windfalls a Cursef A Non-Representative Agent Model of the Current Account and Fiscal Policy. NBER Working Paper 4839, 1994.    ,          .: Davies E.G. The Mexican Experience // Shojai S., Katz B. S. (eds.). The Oil Market in the 1980s: A Decade of Decline. P. 45.].

    ,    1960- . 20%,  1982.   50%.   ,        ,  19781981.   20%,    8,4% .       ,    ,     10 .    ,     ,  ,     ,    ,  .

   . ,   ,         ,  .  1981.       40 .,    20 .[218 - Looney R. E. Economic Policymaking in Mexico: Factors Underlying the 1982 Crisis. Durham: Duke University Press, 1985. P. 49.].

  1980- .        20%  .      ,      19791981.    ,         [219 - Auty R. M. Large Resource-Abundant Countries Squander their Size Advantage: Mexico and Argentina // Auty R. M. (ed.). Resource Abundance and Economic Development. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2004. P.208223,218; Gelb A. H. and Associates. Oil Windfalls: Blessing or Curse? N. Y.: Oxford University Press, 1988.].

 1981.           .     ,             12%  [220 - Hausmann R. Dealingwith Negative Oil Shocks: The Venezuelan Expe-rience in the Eighties. Inter-American Development Bank Working Paper Series 307. 1995. P. 12.].

  ,       .

 19811982.  .     .   ,    ,   ,        ,     .         .   1982.      70%  .   ,      .     :     ,    ,     ,  .        [221 - Everhart S., Duval-Hernandez R. Management of Oil Windfalls in Mexico. Historical Experience and Policy Options for the Future. Policy Research Working Paper 2592. April 2001. P 5.].

 1983.    ,    ,  ,   .         .       ,   .        1980- .      (-0,54%)[222 -  no: World Development Indicators online database, The World Bank (http: //devdata.worldhank. org/dataonline/).].

               .    .   .     ,   1980- .   ,        .

 ,        ,   ,   ,  ,   ,   ,    ,     ,      .         (. . 3.10).



 3.10.         19711990. (   )




:   : Salazar-Carrillo J. Oil and Development in Venezuela during the Twentieth Century. Praeger Publishers, Westport, CT, 1994; Mitchell B. R. International Historical Statistics. The Americas 17501993. L: Macmillan Reference LTD., 1998.



    1973.     ,       .      ,    ,   ,      .   ,   ,        .              1974.       .       ,   .    ,  ,     .      1980- .     .

 1950  1980.           234%.  1980  1989.    18,1%.   ,     ,       10 .  1989.     84%.  ,   1974.   ,  1989.  54% ,      .   60 ,  1980.,         ,    ,  6,7%.  19201979.      6,4%  .   20   1980.  ,    ,   .   1990-   ,   1950.  1978.      .  1983.        [223 - Hausmann R. Venezuela's Growth Implosion: A Neo-Classical Storyf* Harvard University. Working Paper. August 2001. P.111.].

        1989.     . .     ,      .   .   ,   ,     , .  , ,       ,      [224 - Terry L. K. The Paradox of Plenty: Oil Booms and Petro-States. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1997. P. 179.].

  ,    .  ,   1992. . ,       .     ,    ,       ,       .




6.  :   ,     


,           ,     .          .  ,        ,     ,   .      ,  ,    ,  ,    , .    ,        [225 - Daniel J. A. Hedging Government Oil Price Risk. IMF Working Paper. 2001.].

  ,    .   ,    ,     ,   ,        ,   [226 -  ,       , .: Arrau P., Claessens S. Commodity Stabilization Funds. IMF Working Paper. WPS 835. January 1992.].

  1970- .             .  1976.       50%  .  1980- .   -   ( 40%).   1990- .      20%  .           ,     .           ,    ,     ,       ,         XX.  .

     .         .   ,       ,         [227 - Fasano U. Review of the Experience with Oil Stabilization and Savings Funds in Selected Countries. IMF Working Paper. WP/00/112. 2000. P 3.].    ,     ,         , .

    : ,          ,    , ,      ,      .       ,         .          .  ,      ,      .     [228 -  ,   ,   , .: Daniel J. A. Hedging Government Oil Price Risk. IMF Working Paper, 2001. P. 12.].

 ,       ,       ,    .   ,   ,   ,           .

  ,     ,   .    (        )  ,       ,  .    .          [229 - Montenegro S. Macroeconomic Risk Management in Nigeria: Dealing with External Shocks // Macroeconomic Risk Management  Issue and Options. Report 11983. Western Africa Department. Washington DC: World Bank, 1994.].

                 .         1978. :     ,      ,      ;            ?[230 - Terry L. . The Paradox of Plenty: Oil Booms and Petro-States. P. 160.]   ,   ,  , ,            - ,   ,  ,  .   ,     ,      ,  ,   ,    ,   ,         .

  ,      .  10         -        ,  ,   [231 - Gylfason T. Natural Resources and Economic Growth: A Nordic Perspective on the Dutch Disease. Paper presented for UNU/WIDER research project on Resource Abundance and Economic Development: Improving the Performance of Resource-Rich Countries. 1999. P. 33. http://www.hi.is/-gylfason/pdf/ unuwider13.pdf].      ,  .            .

,   ,  ,     ,      ,     .    2005.           .       .         ,         ,               .

       ,  .  ,  ,   ,       ,       .        ,      .            .  ,         .


* * *

       , .         ,    ,    ,    .  ,      ,      .        ,  ,    .   .          .       ,        ,   ,    .   ,    ,      ,    ,   .              ,   ,         .

   XX   XXI.    ,  .        60   .   ,     XIX.,   ,           ,         .  XX. ,     ,     ,   ,          ,       ,  ,  ,   ,   ,    ,      .     1980- .    .   .




 4

  .    1980- 


		-    .

. . 

		   
		   .
		   ,  .
		  ,   .

. 




1.    


   .     ,     ,  ,     -   , ,  .    ,     .      ,   ,  .   ,    ,    ,       ,     ,  .

      .  :       .   ,    ,   1960- .  .  19631967.     ,       . ,  1967. , , .         ,    . 7 9        .         .  19691977.      .     .   8   11      ,        3   9.   1968.,    ,        .       ,      [232 -  . .         (1963   1980- .). :  , 1999. . 8.].

,    (),                 .      (  ,      , !  )     ,     (   ),    .       ,      .          .

  1950-   1980- .      .  1950.   2%       .  1980.  ,     ,    .    ,       ,   [233 -   . 19541964. . 1.    . . . . 2- / . . . . . .: , 2004. . 702.].       1980- .   .      ,      ,   .   1970- .       ,    .         ,  ,   43     ,       .   :    ,    ,    ,     - .  ,    ,      ,     ,            47% (2012) .           . []           . ,        . ,         ,        80%    90%   , , .           (  1-2-       32%   59,2% )[234 -  . (     )   .             . 12  1976. 2798-. http://www.2nt1.c0m/archwe/pdfsAde0l0g/ctj/b/6.pdf.       ,    . ,           .  ,     .     ,  ,   ,  ,   ,      .              .].

           1970.:             ,        .  5            ,          - .    1965.   400      ,    ,             ,      ,      . []  ,       ,       . []    1968   1969.       ,   , ,   ,    :  ,        []     -  , , , , , [235 -   . ( )    N23461-A  21.12.1970.     5 . .: . . 89. . 55. . 1. . 24.].

     .          , ,    .   .   .   ,       ,     .  ,     ,          ,  ,        .

 19581966.         3448 .  19671975. 1583 .  19711974.,      ,   63,1. [236 -  . ( )   .            . 3213-  29  1975. http://www.2nt1.com/archive/pdfs/disyo/kgbjs-y.pdf.]      ,    ,   .     ,                .

    .     , , .   24  1965.   ,      3  8. .        ,   .     1967.     [237 -  . .         (1953   1980- .). . 401, 404.].         .




2.     


 1930-1950- .            .          .        .  1930- .            .   1940-1950- .   ,             .




  .


   .

   ,     (https://www.litres.ru/egor-gaydar/gibel-imperii-uroki-dlya-sovremennoy-rossii/)  .

      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .



notes








1


         ,    ,       , .       .   ,          .    ,  30%        . (.: Dawisha . The Kremlin and the Prague Spring. Berkeley; Los Angeles; London: University of California Press, 1984. E 6, 53.)




2


 . 2004.19 .




3


 .  . .: Ad Marginem Press, 2002. . 426.




4


 .  . .: -, 2000. . 195.




5


., : Strayer R. Why Did the Soviet Union Collapse? Understanding Historical Change. N. Y; L.: M.E. Sharpe Inc., 1998.    .  :          .      ,  . ,        ,   ,       .      ,     ,    .         .       ,     .   ,       .       .    ,     ,    ,  ,    .     ,       .         .            .       ,   ,    ,      . (.:  .   :   //  . 2005. . XVI. . 64.)




6


   .     . 25  2005. .: http://president.kremlin.ru/text/appears/2005/04/87049.shtml.




7


Von Hagen M. Writing the History of Russia as Empire: The Perspective of Federalism // Kazan, Moscow, St. Petersburg: Multiple Faces of the Russian Empire. Moscow, 1997. P. 393.




8


 . .     . .:  , 1989. . 2. . 42.




9


 . .   .  23, . . .:  , 1991. . 228.




10


  .  4- .  .   . .:  , 1981. . 1. . 662.




11


        (   ),   ,          .




12


           ( )    .




13


Arnold G. Britain Since 1945: Choice, Conflict and Change. L.; Blandford, 1989. P.4149.




14


Broszat . Hitler and the Collapse of Weimar Germany. N. Y: BERG, 1987. P. 45.




15


Broszat M. Hitler and the Collapse of Weimar Germany. P.55, 56.




16


      .    1960- .  1920- . -     ,           . (.: Delmer S. Weimar Germany: Democracy on Trial. N. Y: Macdonald and Co., 1972. E 52.)




17


 ,         ,   , .:  .    :   // . 2001. 3 (62). .2533.




18


 ,    ,  - ,   , .: Gerschenkron A. Bread and Democracy in Germany. Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1943.           . :  - .   21  2005.       . http://www.liberal. ru/sitan.asp?Num = 549.




19


 .   :   //  . 2005. . XVI. . 65, 66.




20


        8.




21


  1926.  .   ,               ,   .




22


Delmer S. Op.cit.     19221923.     . : Weisbrod . The Crisis of Bourgeois Society in Interwar Germany / Bessel R. (ed.). Fascist Italy and Nazi Germany. Comparisons and Contrasts. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1972. P. 30.




23


Brustein W. The Logic of Evil: the Social Origins of the Nazi Party, 19251933. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1996.




24


        ,  ,     ,  .  28,4%    ,      ,     . (.:  .    :     ? http://www.ukpolitics.ru/rus./members/9/09.doc.)




25


 .        //  . 2005. 4041. .4657.




26


 .   . .:  . .   ʰ, 1891. . 71.




27


    ,     ,      , , ,  .:  .   . .: . - . , 1948. . 26.




28


Barraclough G. The Mediaeval Empire. Idea and Reality. Historical Association: George Phillip & Son, 1950. P. 911.




29


Elliott J. . Spain and Its World, ljoo-i/oo. Selected Essays. New Haven; L.: Yale University Press, 1989. P 9.




30


Cullen L. . A History of Japan, 15821941. Cambridge University Press, 2003. P.178182; Ihsanoglu E. (ed.). History of the Ottoman State, Society & Civilisation. Istanbul: IRCICA, 2001. Vol. 1. P.7376, 80;     . .: , 1973. . 1. .5862.




31


Gopal R. British Rule In India: An Assessment. L.: Asia Publishing House, 1963. P.1719.




32


  .     . .: - . , 1954. . 14.




33


   ,      . ,   ,    . , 22,6%. (.: addison A. The World Economy. Historical Statistics. Paris: OECD, 2003.)    2025%.




34


Gerschenkron A. Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective. Cambridge; Massachusetts: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 1962.




35


   ( . ) ,           .  .:  . .   .  1. (. .)




36


 .  .   :   . .: , 2005. .3646.




37


         ,       ,      XX  .: Gamble A. Britain in Decline. Economic Police, Political Strategy and the British State. Boston: Beacon Press, 1931.




38


     -  19041905.       .: Rawlins ON . G. The British Achievement in India. London Edinburgh Glasgow: William Hodge & Company, Limited, 1948.




39


Aron R. France Steadfast and Changing: The Fourth to the Fifth Republic. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1960.




40


 ATT .     . .: - . , 1954. . 31.




41


       .: Tilly . How Empires End / After Empire, Multiethnic societies and Nation Building. The Soviet Union and Russia, Ottoman and Habsburg Empires. N. Y; L.: Boulder, 1997. P. 3.




42


Glaise-Horstenau E. V. The Collapse of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. L.; Toronto: J.M. Dent and Sons. Ltd, New York: E.P Dutton and C. Inc., 1930.




43


 .    . 19851994:    . .: -, 1994. . 101.




44


Aron R. France Steadfast and Changing: The Fourth to the Fifth Republic. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1960.




45


Morris-Jones W. ., Austin D. (eds.). Decolonisation and After: The British and French Experience // Studies in Commonwealth Politics and History. 7. L.: Frank Cass, 1980. P. 121; Goldsworthy D. Colonial Issues in British Politics 19451961. Oxford: At the Clarendon Press, 1971.




46


Goldsworthy D. Colonial Issues in British Politics 19451961. Oxford: At the Clarendon Press, 1971.




47


               ,          . (.: Goldsworthy D. Colonial Issues in British Politics 19451961. Oxford: At the Clarendon Press, 1971.)




48


Rady D. L. Fascism and Resistance in Portugal: Communists, Liberals and Military Dissidents in the Opposition to Salazar, 1941-19/4. Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1988; Porch D. The Portuguese Armed Forces and the Revolution. L., Stanford: Croom Helm, Hoover Institution Press, 1977; Bruce N. Portugal. The Last Empire. L.: David & Charles, 1975.




49


 . ,   . . . .: - ..   ʰ, 1885. . 1. . 106.




50


Morris-Jones W. ., Austin D. (eds.). Decolonisation and After: The British and French Experience // Studies in Commonwealth Politics and History. 7. L.: Frank Cass, 1980.




51


Rawlins on H. G. The British Achievement in India. London Edinburgh Glasgow: William Hodge & Company, Limited, 1948. P 189.             ,           .




52


Churchill W. Memories The Second World War. L., 1952. Vol. 5. P 88.




53


Goldsworthy D. Colonial Issues in British Politics 19451961. Oxford: At the Clarendon Press, 1971.




54


Arnold G. Britain Since 1945: Choice, Conflict and Change. L.: Blandford, 1989.




55


Morris-Jones W. ., Austin D. (eds.). Decolonisation and After: The British and French Experience // Studies in Commonwealth Politics and History. 7. L.: Frank Cass, 1980. P 23.




56


         ,        .        1950-1960- .    ,          .




57


Ferreira . G., Marshall M.W. Portugal's Revolution: Ten Years On. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1986.




58


 . .    . .: , 1985.




59


,              ,     ,   ,    .  1950- .    ,       ,   ,   .      .




60


Talbott J. The War Without a Name. France in Algeria, 19541962. N. Y: Alfred A. Knopf, 1980. E 39.




61


 .




62


Talbott J. The War Without a Name. France in Algeria, 19541962. N. Y: Alfred A. Knopf, 1980. E 202.




63


Williams P.M. Wars, Plots and Scandals in Postwar France. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1970. P. 151.




64


     -,    ,    , .: Jaszi . The Dissolution of the Habsburg Monarchy. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1961.




65


 . .     . .: , 1977. . 226, 250.




66


Solsten . (ed.) Portugal: A Country Study. Washington, D. .: Federal Research Division, Library of Congress, 1994. P. 137.




67


Glaise-Horstenau . V. The Collapse of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. L.; Toronto: J.M. Dent and Sont Ltd, New York: E.P. Dutton and C. Inc., 1930. P. 270.




68


 ..,  . .  :    . .: , 2001. .2592.




69


.,        XIX.,    ,      :   ;  ,            ;       . (.: Hroch . Social Preconditions of National Revival in Europe. A Comparative Analysis of the Social Composition of Patriotic Groups Among the Smaller European Nations. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1985. P. 23.)




70


 ..  - . .: -   , 1963. . 325.




71


Jaszi . The Dissolution of the Habsburg Monarchy. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1961. P.7, 11.




72


    :    . .: , 1998. . 331.




73


 . .       - , http://www.hrights.ru/text/B (http://www.hrights.ru/text/B)/Chapter2.htm.




74


Robinson R. D. The First Turkish Republic. A Case Study in National Development. Cambridge  Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 1963.




75


 ..    1881. . III. -.   ? . . .  30. .: , 1984. . 27. .2628.




76


           .:   XX.   . .1 / . . . . .: , 2002.




77


BESAN90N A. Lempire russe et la domination sovietique // Le concept d'empire. Paris: PUF, 1980. P.367368.




78


 .    -. .: , 1909.




79


Serbin R. Lenine et la question Ukrainienne en 1914: le discours separatiste de Zurich. Pluriel 1981. 25. E 8384.




80


 ,         .       ,     ,    ,    ,        ..,     ,   ,    .          ,  ,       ,          . ( .   :    . .: , 1998. . 317.)




81


 . .       - , 

http://www.hrights.ru/text/b3/Chapter2.htm.




82


      .    .   .  1994.            -  3. ,     ,      .       ,      ,  ,        .      1999.   ,      .    ,    .      ,         ,  - . ,  ,          ,   ,     .




83


 . .     //  . 1994. 5. .4056.




84


 . . :  , , ,   . ., 2000. .5759.




85


 . .    (19902000). .:  . , 2001. .5354.




86


Woodward S. L. Balkan Tragedy. Chaos and Dissolution after the Cold War. Washington: The Brookings Institution, 1995. C. 45.




87


Ward . The firm in Illiria: Market syndicalism // American Economic Review. 1958. Vol. 48. N


4. P.266289; Ward B. The Socialist Economy: A Study of Organizational Alternatives. N. Y: Random House, 1967.




88


Woodward S. L. Balkan Tragedy. Chaos and Dissolution after the Cold War. Washington: The Brookings Institution, 1995. P. 129.




89


Kovacevic S., Daji . Hronologija jugoslovenske krize 19421993. Beograd: IES, 1994. S. 284.




90


., : Bennett C. Yugoslavia's Bloody Collapse: Causes, Course and Consequences. N. Y: New York University Press, 1995; Denitch . Ethnic Nationalism. The Tragic Death of Yugoslavia. Minneapolis; L.: University of Minnesota Press, 1996; Gligorov V. Why Do Countries Break Up? The Case of Yugoslavia. Uppsala: Uppsala University, 1994; Oberschall T. The Fall of Yugoslavia //Journal of the Budapest, University of Economic Sciences. 1992. Vol. XVIII (3).




91


.     1971.     ,       .




92


    ,           .:  .          ||     .   . . 1517  1996. . . 13.




93


jh ., h.  :   . B: , 1995. . 150.




94


       ,   2005. .   ,   ,              .        , ,    ,  -.   ,   .   ,        .




95


Meier V. Yugoslavia: A History of its Demise. L.; N. Y: Routledge, 1995.




96


DornbuschR.. EdwardsS. The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1991.




97


 ,       ,        , ,    ,     .




98


       ,    ,          .        .    XIX.,    .  .:  .  .   :   . .127170.




99


Olson . Power and Prosperity. Outgrowing Communist and Capitalist Dictatorships. N. Y: Basic Books, 2000.




100


. :  E.  .   :   .  7.




101


   ,     ,         , .: Deutsch . W. Social Mobilization and Political Development // American Political Science Review. 1961. September. Vol. 55. P 494, 495; Eisenstadt S. N. (ed.) Comparative Social Problems. N. Y: Free Press of Glencoe, Inc., 1964; Lipset S. M. Political Man. Garden City. N. Y: Doubleday & Company, Inc., 1960.




102


.  ,     ,      .    .           . -     .     ,       . (.: Paine . Common Sense and Other Political Writings. N. Y; L.: Putnam, 1783.)




103


       ,    ,   ,     .        ,            . (.: Przeworski A. et.al. Democracy and Development. Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 19501990. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000.)




104


   ,               ,         ,    ;        .




105


 1973.  ,  1974.  ,   1970- .  .




106


  1624.  : ,    ,   . (.: Hill . The Century of Revolution. 16031714. N. Y.; L.:  Norton & Company, 1982. P. 38.)




107


Huntington S. P. The Third Wave. Democratization in the Twentieth Century. Norman; L.: University of Oklahoma Press, 1993. P.1618.




108


          .: Moore . Jr. Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy. Boston: Beacon Press, 1967. P. 415.




109


De SchweinitZ K.Jr. Industrialization, Labor Controls and Democracy // Economic Development and Cultural Change. 1959. Vol. 7 (4). P.385404.




110


    ,  ,    ,         ,     . (.: . . .: ; ACT, 1999. .344349.)




111


.      :     ,    ,      ,     .       . (.:  . . .: -, 1999. . 385.)




112


 .-.   .  / . . . .   . . -. .: KAHOH-;  , 1998. . 18.




113


 ,     ,   . . (.: Linz J.  Authoritarian Regime: Spain / . Allardt, Y. Lettunen (eds.). Cleavages, Ideologies and Party Systems: Contributions to Comparative Political Sociology // Transactions of the Westermarck Society 1964. Vol. 10. P 292343.)    .: Eisenstadt S. N. Modernization: Protest and Change. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc.; Englewood Cliffs, 1966. P. 69.




114


    ,     1990- .,  9,3 . (.: Przeworski A. ET.AL. Democracy and Development. Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 19501990. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000. P 50.)




115


Vacs . . Authoritarian Breakdown and Redemocratization in Argentina / Malloy J.M., Seligson M.A. (eds). Authoritarians and Democrats. Regime Transition in Latin America. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1987. P.1542.




116


  ,            ,   ,      1964. (.: Baretta S. R. D., Markoff J. Brazil's Ahertura: A Transition from What to Whatf / Malloy J.M., Seligson M.A. (eds). Authoritarians and Democrats. Regime Transition in Latin America. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1987.)




117


Olson . Power and Prosperity. Outgrowing Communist and Capitalist Dictatorships. N. Y: Basic Books, 2000. P. 21.




118


Burke E. Reflections on the Revolution in France. Chicago: Regnery, 1955. P. 92.




119


 E.  .   :   .  15.




120


     ,        .     ., : Minxin Pei. From Reform to Revolution: The Demise of Communism in China and the Soviet Union. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1994.




121


Cline H.F. The United States and Mexico. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1963. P. 52; Parker H. B. A History of Mexico. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1950. P. 308.




122


 . .  ,     . .: Academia, 2000. . 139.




123


Medhurst . Spain s Evolutionary Pathway from Dictatorship to Democracy / G. Pridham (ed.). The New Mediterranean Democracies: Regime Transition in Spain, Greece and Portugal. L.: Frank Cass, 1984. P 30, 31.




124


 ., Bept . .   . , , . .:   , 1999. . 433.




125


                ?      :

,   .   ,    . (.: New York Times. 1961. December 4. P 10. . no: Huntington S. P. Political Order in Changing Societies. New Haven; L.: Yale University Press, 1968. P. 211.) ,     ,          .       .    ,   .      .




126


Creeping Revolt. Cuba // Time. 1957. January 7. P. 33.




127


Phillips R. . Cuba Says Rebels Number Only jo // New York Times.

1957. March 2; Matthews H.L. Castro Rebels Gain In Face of Offensive By the Cuban Army // New York Times. 1957. June 9. P. 1, 13; Cuban Rebels. Andrew St. George interview with Fidel Castro // Look. 1958. Feb. 4. P. 30; Phillips R. H. Castro's Power At Peak On Eve of Cuban Vote // The New York Times. 1958. November 2. 4E; Batista's Drive To Crush Rebels Called Failure // The New York Times. 1958. July 2. P. 1; Into the Third Year. Cuba // Time.

1958. December 1. P. 32.




128


 .   . .:  -   . 1974. .210217.




129


Matthews . L. Rebel Strength Gaining in Cuba, But Batista Has the Upper Hand // The New York Times. Monday. 1957. February 25; Huberman L., Sweezy P. M. Cuba: Anatomy of a Revolution. N. Y: Monthly Review Press, 1960. P. 59, 60.




130


Sullivan W. . Mission to Iran. N. Y.: II Norton, 1981. P. 156.




131


Przeworski A. et.al. Democracy and Development. Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 19501990. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000.




132


DeLong J. . International Financial Crises in the 1990s: The Analytics. November 2001. http://www.j-hradford-delong.net/; Dornbusch R. A Primer on Emerging Market Crises // NBER Working Paper 8326. 2001; Goldstein M. IMF Structural Programs. Paper prepared for the NBER Conference on Economic and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies. Woodstock, Vermont. 2000. October 1921.




133


Amuzegar J. Managing the Oil Wealth: OPEC's Windfalls and Pitfalls. L.; N. Y: I.B. Tauris, 1999.




134


Benedict R. OG. Anderson (ed.). Violence and the State in Suharto's Indonesia New York: Southeast Asia Program Publications, Cornell University, 2001; Hal Hill. Indonesia: The Strange and Sudden Death of a Tiger Economy // Oxford. Development Studies. 2000. Vol. 28 (2). P 117139.




135


Binnendijk . (ed.). Authoritarian Regimes in Transition. Washington: Foreign Service Institute of the US Department of State, 1987.




136


 ,       ,  ,  ,      ,  ,    .    .       -        ,   -     .




137


.  :      ,    ,   , ,  , ,   ,      . (.: Lippman W. New York Herald Tribune. 1963. December 10.)    H.    .         1918.           ,            ,     ,  , ,    . ( .    //  . . 1918.   . .374396.)




138


Weber . Politik als Beruf. Miinchen, 1919.




139


        .: O'Donnell G., Schmitter . ., Whitehead L. (eds.). Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions About Uncertain Democracies. Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986.




140


Maravall J. The Transition to Democracy in Spain. L.; Canberra; N. Y: Croom Helm, St.Martin's Press, 1982; Gilmour D. The Transformation of Spain: From Franco to Constitutional Monarchy. L.: Quartet Books, 1985.




141


O'Donnell G., Schmitter P. (eds.). Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies. Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986. P. 41.




142


Elliott J. . Imperial Spain 1469-1/16. L.: Edward Arnold Publishers LTD., 1965. P. 174.




143


 . , ,     , -,                   . (.: Grice-Hutchinson . The School of Salamanca. Readings in Spanish Monetary Theory, 15441605. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1952. P.9196.)  ,        ,   . . (Hamilton E.J. American Treasure and the Price Revolution in Spain, 15011650. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1934.)          ,    . (., : Nadal J. . La Revolucion de los Precios Espanoles en el Siglo XVI// Hispania. 1959. Vol. XIX. P.503529.)    ,    XVI   XVII.           .   60-70- . XV.          .     1470  1500.  17. (.: Wilks I. Wangara, Akan and the Portuguese in the Fifteenth and Sixteenth Centuries / Wilks I. (ed.). Forests of Gold: Essays on the Akan and the Kingdom ofAsante. Athens: Ohio, 1993. P.139).       XV.      ,      . (.: Munro J. The Monetary Origins of the Price Revolution: South German Silver Mining, Merchant-Banking, and Venetian Commerce, 147(^1540. Department of Economics and University of Toronto. Working Paper. June. 1999. 8; Outhwaite R. B. Inflation in Tudor and Early Stuart England. Studies in Economic and Social History Series. L.: Macmillan, 1969; Burke P. (ed.). Economy and Society in Early Modern Europe: Essays from Annales. L.: Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1972.)         , , , ,   15261535.  8090  . (.: Nef J. Silver Production in Central Europe, 14501618 // Journal of Political Economy. 1941. Vol. 49. P.575591.)   ,     ,            XVIXVII.    . (.: Marjorie Grice-Hutchinson. Op. cit.)




144


    ,            .:  .   ,         . 2005. 1. . 12.




145


Gonzalez de Cellorigo M. Memorial de la Politica Necesaria  util Restauracion a la Republica de Espana. Valladolid, 1600 / Grice-Hutchinson M. (ed.). The School of Salamanca: Readings in Spanish Monetary History 15441605. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1952.




146


Ramirez A. Epistolario de Justo Lapsio  los espanoles. Madrid: Castalia, D. L.,

1966. P. 374. . no: Elliott J. H. Spain and Its World, 150^1700. Selected Essays. New Haven; L.: Yale University Press, 1989. P 25.




147


Davies R. . The Golden Century of Spain, 15011621. L.: Macmillan & Co Ltd., 1954. P 263, 264.




148


Elliot J. H. Imperial Spain 1469-1/16. L.: Edward Arnold Publishers LTD., 1965.




149


Kennedy P. The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000. N. Y: Random House, 1987. P. 55.




150


         1621.   . (.: Elliott J. . Imperial Spain, 1469-1/16. L.: Edward Arnold Publishers LTD., 1965.)




151


Elliott J. H. Spain and Its World, 15001700. Selected Essays. New Haven; L.: Yale University Press, 1989. P. 25.




152


Trevor-Roper H. The Crisis of the Seventeenth Century. N. Y.: Liberty Fund,

1967. P 51.




153


World Development Indicators 2000. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2000.




154


     .: Sachs J. D., Warner . . Economic Convergence and Economic Policy. NBER Working Paper 5039.1995; Wood A., Berge K. Exporting Manufactures: Human Resources, Natural Resources and Trade Policy // Journal of Development Studies. 1997. Vol. 34 (1). P.3559; Gylfason ., Herbertsson . ., Zoega G. A Mixed Blessing: Natural Resources and Economic Growth // Macroeconomic Dynamics. 1999. Vol. 3. P.204225; Syrquin M., Chenery H.B. Patterns of Development, 1950 to 1983. World Bank Discussion Paper 41. Washington: World Bank, 1989.




155


 ,           , .: Gelb . . Windfall Gains: Blessing or Curse? N. Y: Oxford University Press, 1988; Sachs J. D., Warner A. M. Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth. NBER Working Paper 5398. 1995; Sachs J. D., Warner A.M. The Big Push, Natural Resource Booms and Growth // Journal of Development Economics. 1999. Vol. 59. P.4376; Gylfason ., Herbertsson . ., Zoega G. A Mixed Blessing: Natural Resources and Economic Growth // Macroeconomic Dynamics. 1999. Vol. 3. P.204225; Ranis G. The Political Economy of Development Policy Change / Meier G.M. (ed.). Politics and Policy Making in Developing Countries: Perspectives on the New Political Economy. San Francisco: ICS Press, 1991; Lal D., Myint H. The Political Economy of Poverty, Equity and Growth. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1996.




156


Sala-i-Martin X., Subramanian A. Addressing the Natural Resource Curse: An Illustration From Nigeria. NBER Working Paper 9804. June 2003. P 4.




157


 , ,              ,   . (.: Karl . L. The Paradox of Plenty: Oil Booms and Petro-States. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1997.)




158


 ,   ,       , .: Cardenas ., Partow 2. Oil, Coffee and Dynamic Commons Problem in Colombia. Inter-American Development Bank Office of the Chief Economist Research Network Document R-335.1998.




159


 ,        ,     , ,       ,   . (         .: Karl . L. The Paradox of Plenty: Oil Booms and Petro-States. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1997.)   ,    ,   1980- .  90%         . (.: Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Achievements of the Development Plans 19701986. Riyadh: Ministry of Planning Press, 1986.)            ,               . .     ,                 .   ,       . (.:  .      //  .,  .-.    :   . .: , 2004.)




160


North D. . Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990.   ,    ,   ,   ,       ,      . (.: McDonald . Suharto's Indonesia. Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press, 1981.)




161


                   .: Sala-i-Martin X., Subramanian . Addressing the Natural Resource Curse: An Illustration From Nigeria. NBER Working Paper 9804. June 2003; Mehlum ., Moene . ., Torvik R. Institutions and the Resource Curse || Economic Journal. 2005. Vol. 116. N 508. E 1-20; Bulte E. H., Damania R., Deacon R. T. Resource Abundance, Poverty and Development. World Development 2005. http://www.econ.ucsb. edu/papers/wp2i-03.pdf.




162


- M. E. . .  10. .: - , 1988. . 7.  . . 19.




163


Leamer . ., Maul ., Rodriguez S., Schott . . Does Natural Resource Abundance Increase Latin American Income Inequality f // Journal of Development Economics. 1999. Vol. 59 (1). P.342.




164


Williamson J. G. Growth, Distribution and Demography: Some Lessons from History // Explorations in Economic History. 1998. 34 (3). P 241271.




165


Krueger A. Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Liberalization Attempts and Consequences. N. Y.: Columbia University Press, 1978.              . : Tornell A., Lane P. Voracity and Growth // American Economic Review. 1999. Vol. 89. P.2246; Mauro P. Corruption and Growth II Quarterly Journal of Economics. 1995. Vol. 90. P.681712; Leite C., We 1 dm ANN M. Does Mother Nature Corrupt? Natural Resources, Corruption and Economic Growth. IMF Working Paper WP/99/85,1999.




166


Collier P., Hoffler A. Greed and Grievance in African Civil Wars. L.: Oxford University Press, 2004.




167


Gylfason T. Natural resources; education and economic development // European Economic Review. 2001. Vol. 45. P. 851.




168


May .   ,     //    . 2005. 1.




169


Sachs J., Warner A. M. Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth // Mayer J., Chambers B., Farooq A. (eds.). Development Policies in Natural Resource Economies. Cheltenham  Northampton: Edward Elgar, 1999. P 26.




170


Corden M., Neary J. P. Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: A Survey // Economic Journal. 1982. December. Vol. 92. P 826844; Kamas L. Dutch Disease Economics and the Colombian Export Boom // World Development. 1986. September; Davies G. A. Learning to Love the Dutch Disease: Evidence from the Mineral Economies // World Development. 1995. Vol. 23 (10). P 17651779; Gylfason T. Lessons from the Dutch Disease: Causes, Treatment and Cures. Institute of Economic Studies. Working Paper Series 01/06. August 2001; Krugman P. The Narrow Moving Band, the Dutch Disease and the Competitive Consequences of MRS. Thatcher: Notes on Trade in the Presence of Scale Economies // Journal of Development Economics. 1987. Vol. 27. P 4155; Moiseev A. Analysis of Influence of the Dutch Disease and Taxation on Economic Welfare. Working Paper BSP/99/030.1999; Struthers J. J. Nigerian Oil and Exchange Rates: Indicators of Dutch Disease // Development and Change. 1990. Vol. 21 (2). P 309341; Jazayeri A. Economic Adjustment in Oil-based Economies. Aldershot: Avebury, 1988.




171


     .          .         .   ,     ,  . (.:  ., - .,  .      19982002. .: , 2003.)




172


Sachs J. D., Warner A.M. The Curse of Natural Resources // European Economic Review. 2001. Vol. 45. P.827838.




173


Gylfason ., Herbertsson . ., Zoega G. A Mixed Blessing: Natural Resources and Economic Growth // Macroeconomic Dynamics. 1999. Vol. 3. P 204225; Gylfason T. Natural Resources, Education and Economic Development. Paper presented at the 15th Annual Congress of the European Economic Association. Bolzano. August-September 2000.




174


Gylfason T. Natural Resources and Economic Growth: A Nordic Perspective on the Dutch Disease. WIDER Working Papers 167. October 1999.




175


PrebischR. Commercial Policy in the Underdeveloped Countries // American Economic Review. 1949. Vol. 49. P 251273; Prebisch R. International Trade and Payments in an Era of Coexistence: Commercial Policy in Underdeveloped Countries // The American Economic Review. 1959. May. Vol. 49. Issue 2. Papers and Proceedings of the Seventy-first Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association. P 251273; Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. N. Y: United Nations, 1968; La mano de obra  el desarrollo Economico de America Latina en los ultimos anos. Economic Commission for Latin America. N. Y: United Nations, 1964.




176


Cashin P., McDermott C. J., Scott A. The Long-Ran Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability. IMF Working Paper, 2001.




177


Samuels on P. A. Lessons from the Current Economic Expansion // The American Economic Review. 1974. Vol. 64 (2). P.7576.




178


Skeet I. OPEC: Twenty-Five Years of Prices and Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988. P 195.    ,       , .: Dowling .., Hilton F. G. Oil in the 1980s: An OECD Perspective // Shojai S., Katz B. S. (eds.). The Oil Market in the 1980s: A Decade of Decline. New York: Praeger, 1992. P 77.      ,             .: Mikesell R. F. The World Copper Industry. Structure and Economic Analysis. Baltimore; L.: Published for Resources for the Future by The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1957.




179


Pritchett L. Patterns of Economic Growth: Hills, Plateaus, Mountains, and Plains. Policy Research Working Paper Series 1947. 1998; Mabro R. OPEC Behavior 19601998: A Review of the Literature // Journal of Energy Literature. 1998. June. Vol. 4 (1). P.327.




180


Brunner A. D. El Nino and World Primary Commodity Prices: Warm Water or Hot Air? IMF Working Paper, 2000. P. 3.




181


Hamilton J. D. What Is an Oil Shock? NBER Working Paper 7755. 2000.




182


Falcoff . Modern Chile 19/0-1989:  Critical History. New Brunswick L.: Transaction Publishers, 1989.




183


Skeet I. OPEC: Twenty-Five Years of Prices and Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988. P 157,158.




184


Kanovsky E. Economic Implications for the Region and World Oil Market // Karsh E. (ed.). The Iran-Iraq War: Impact and Implications. L.: MacMillan Press, 1989. P. 241.




185


Jadresic ., Zahler R. Chile's Rapid Growth in the 1990s: Good Policies, Good Luck or Political Change? IMF Working Paper WP 00/153. 2000.




186


Rodrik D. Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governmentsf // The Journal of Political Economy. 1998. Vol. 106 (5). P.9971032; Daniel J. A. Hedging Government Oil Price Risk. IMF Working Paper, 2001; Washington Post. March 27. 1991.




187


Amuzegar J. Managing the Oil Wealth: OPEC's Windfalls and Pitfalls. L.; N. Y: I. B. Tauris Publishers, 2001. P. 12.




188


De Santis R. A. Crude Oil Price Fluctuations and Saudi Arabian Behaviour. Kiel Working Paper 1014. October 2000. P. 6.




189


Yergin D. The Prize. The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power. N. Y: Simon and Schuster, 1992.




190


Amuzegar J. Managing the Oil Wealth: OPEC's Windfalls and Pitfalls. L.; N. Y: I. B. Tauris Publishers, 2001. P. 24.




191


Amuzegar J. Managing the Oil Wealth: OPEC's Windfalls and Pitfalls. L.; N. Y: I. B. Tauris Publishers, 2001. P. 25.




192


Skeet I. OPEC: Twenty-Five Years of Prices and Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988;  P. H.      19731983.    . .: , 1990. . 80.




193


Penrose . Oil and the International Economy: Multinational Aspects, 1900-1973 // Ferrier R.W., Fursenko A. (eds.). Oil in the World Economy. L.; N. Y: Routledge, 1989. P. 14.




194


Amuzegar J. Managing the Oil Wealth: OPEC's Windfalls and Pitfalls. P. 28.




195


 1869.        2004.  18 . 59  (  2000. 18,43 .)  .   ,   1958. 16 .   (  2004.),   1970.  13 . (  2000. 15  12 . )  . (.: Oil Price History and Analysis. 2004. http://www.wtrg.com/prices. htm)




196


Yergin D. The Prize. The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power. P. 567.




197


Darmstadter J., Landsberg H. H. The Economic Background // Vernon R. (ed.). The Oil Crisis. New York: Norton, 1976. P. 31.




198


Skeet I. OPEC: Twenty-Five Years of Prices and Politics. P. 86.




199


Rybczynski . M., Ray G. F. Historical Background to the World Energy Crisis // Rybczynski T. M. (ed.). The Economics of the Oil Crisis. L.: The Macmillan Press / Trade Policy Research Centre, 1976. P. 2.




200


Barsky R. B., Lutz K. Do We Really Know that Oil Causedthe Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative. NBER Working Paper 8389. July 2001. P 5,14.




201


Sobel L. A. (ed.). Energy Crisis. Vol. 1. 19691973. N. Y: Facts on File, Inc., 1974. P.199206.




202


Kanovsky E. Economic Implications for the Region and World Oil Market // Karsh E. (ed.). The Iran-Iraq War: Impact and Implications. L.: MacMillan Press, 1989. P. 231.




203


Terry Lynn Karl. The Paradox of Plenty: Oil Booms and Petro-States. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1997.




204


 P. H.      19/3-1983.    . .: , 1990. .124130.




205


Dowling .., Hilton F. G. Oil in the 1980s: An OECD Perspective // Shojai S., Katz B. S. (eds.). The Oil Market in the 1980s: A Decade of Decline. N. Y: Praeger, 1992. P. 74.




206


Yousaf Hasan J. Mohammad. OPEC Strategies for the Monopoly Oil Profits // Shojai S., Katz B. S. (eds.). The Oil Market in the 1980s: A Decade of Decline. P. 37; Wickham P. Volatility of Oil Prices. IMF Working Paper, 1996.




207


Se-Hark Park. Falling Oil Prices and Exchange Rate Fluctuation // Shojai S., Katz B. S. (eds.). The Oil Market in the 1980s: A Decade of Decline. P. 6.




208


Skeet I. OPEC: Twenty-Five Years of Prices and Politics. P. 207, 208.




209


Shojai S., Katz . S. (eds.). The Oil Market in the 1980s: A Decade of Decline. N. Y: Praeger, 1992. P. XIII.




210


Terry Lynn Karl. The Paradox of Plenty: Oil Booms and Petro-States. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1997. P. 32.




211


Amuzegar J. Managing the Oil Wealth: OPEC's Windfalls and Pitfalls. P. 13.




212


   2000. : International Financial Statistics 2004.




213


    1970.   4 ,  1982. 57. (.: Dowling .., Hilton F. G. Oil in the 1980s: An OECD Perspective // Shojai S., Katz B. S. (eds.). The Oil Market in the 1980s: A Decade of Decline. P 76.)           19761980. . :  olio F. J. P. Petroleum and Political Change in Mexico // Latin America Perspectives. Issue 32.1982. Vol. 9 (1). P.6578.




214


Everhart S., Duval-Hernandez R. Management of Oil Windfalls in Mexico. Historical Experience and Policy Options for the Future. Policy Research Working Paper 2592. April 2001. P. 2.




215


Looney R. E. Economic Policymaking in Mexico: Factors Underlying the 1982 Crisis. Durham: Duke University Press, 1985. P. 40.




216


Guzman . PEMEXs Finances // Guzman ., Gutierrez R. (eds.). Energy Policy in Mexico. Boulder: Westview Press, 1988.




217


Tornell A., Lane P. Are Windfalls a Cursef A Non-Representative Agent Model of the Current Account and Fiscal Policy. NBER Working Paper 4839, 1994.    ,          .: Davies E.G. The Mexican Experience // Shojai S., Katz B. S. (eds.). The Oil Market in the 1980s: A Decade of Decline. P. 45.




218


Looney R. E. Economic Policymaking in Mexico: Factors Underlying the 1982 Crisis. Durham: Duke University Press, 1985. P. 49.




219


Auty R. M. Large Resource-Abundant Countries Squander their Size Advantage: Mexico and Argentina // Auty R. M. (ed.). Resource Abundance and Economic Development. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2004. P.208223,218; Gelb A. H. and Associates. Oil Windfalls: Blessing or Curse? N. Y.: Oxford University Press, 1988.




220


Hausmann R. Dealingwith Negative Oil Shocks: The Venezuelan Expe-rience in the Eighties. Inter-American Development Bank Working Paper Series 307. 1995. P. 12.




221


Everhart S., Duval-Hernandez R. Management of Oil Windfalls in Mexico. Historical Experience and Policy Options for the Future. Policy Research Working Paper 2592. April 2001. P 5.




222


 no: World Development Indicators online database, The World Bank (http: //devdata.worldhank. org/dataonline/).




223


Hausmann R. Venezuela's Growth Implosion: A Neo-Classical Storyf* Harvard University. Working Paper. August 2001. P.111.




224


Terry L. K. The Paradox of Plenty: Oil Booms and Petro-States. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1997. P. 179.




225


Daniel J. A. Hedging Government Oil Price Risk. IMF Working Paper. 2001.




226


 ,       , .: Arrau P., Claessens S. Commodity Stabilization Funds. IMF Working Paper. WPS 835. January 1992.




227


Fasano U. Review of the Experience with Oil Stabilization and Savings Funds in Selected Countries. IMF Working Paper. WP/00/112. 2000. P 3.




228


 ,   ,   , .: Daniel J. A. Hedging Government Oil Price Risk. IMF Working Paper, 2001. P. 12.




229


Montenegro S. Macroeconomic Risk Management in Nigeria: Dealing with External Shocks // Macroeconomic Risk Management  Issue and Options. Report 11983. Western Africa Department. Washington DC: World Bank, 1994.




230


Terry L. . The Paradox of Plenty: Oil Booms and Petro-States. P. 160.




231


Gylfason T. Natural Resources and Economic Growth: A Nordic Perspective on the Dutch Disease. Paper presented for UNU/WIDER research project on Resource Abundance and Economic Development: Improving the Performance of Resource-Rich Countries. 1999. P. 33. http://www.hi.is/-gylfason/pdf/ unuwider13.pdf




232


 . .         (1963   1980- .). :  , 1999. . 8.




233


  . 19541964. . 1.    . . . . 2- / . . . . . .: , 2004. . 702.




234


 . (     )   .             . 12  1976. 2798-. http://www.2nt1.c0m/archwe/pdfsAde0l0g/ctj/b/6.pdf.       ,    . ,           .  ,     .     ,  ,   ,  ,   ,      .              .




235


  . ( )    N23461-A  21.12.1970.     5 . .: . . 89. . 55. . 1. . 24.




236


 . ( )   .            . 3213-  29  1975. http://www.2nt1.com/archive/pdfs/disyo/kgbjs-y.

pdf.




237


 . .         (1953   1980- .). . 401, 404.


