  
 


       .    :   ,        .             ,       .       ,             ,          .      ,     ,    ,        .       ,    ,     ,    ,       .         .





 

  



     FIBO Group, Ltd. (http://www.fibo.ru/)



 . 

  . 

 . , . 

  . 

  . 



      FIBO Group, Ltd.



  ., 2004, 2008,  

    , 2008



  .                        ,         ,           .



       (www.litres.ru (http://www.litres.ru/))


* * *


          .

   ,   .

 ,
 

    ,             ,     










   ,   ,   .    -     ,                .

       .      ,     .         .        ---,     ,       .

   ,    -         .       .

  ,  10  , -   , CFD  ,      .                  .         .    .    .       .     !

       ?   !   ,    .    ,      .   ,   ,    .                      .

       ?   ,     . ,                 . ,  ,   ,           ,   -  .

    ,   ,   .                     .          ,        .         .                .



 
 2008.







          .           .            .      ,        .       ,    .

         ,     .     ,     .

       .    ,     -;        .           .  .

  .     .     ,     .    ,            ,   ,       .        ,  ,     .      ,     ,         .

   .      (, ,    ..)        .       .      , , ,      ,    .

   .               ,        ..

 ,        .    /, /       .       .   - / ,      .       ,      ,    -   ,        . ,   ,    ,  .

           .  ,    ,     .             ,    .

             .        ,      ,       .          ,            ,   .       ,      .         ,         .                .              ,                  .           .              .             , ,  ,       ,           .  -       .                .

       , ,       ,    ,     ,           ,      .




1. 



        ,              .       .

     ?      ,    ?  ,    .         ,   .

     .      ,            .    .    .                 .  ,        ,   .

 .   $100        .    ,       ,         ,      .      ,        .  ?    .    -   ,    ,      .          .           ? ,      ,    .

,        ,   ,  ,     .

     ( )   ( )             ,           ?  ,      ,           .

     ,      .     .      ,     ,     ,   .        ,     .        ,   ,  ,    .

      ,      . ,        .   , ..      .   ,     ,       .      , ,     .

          ,       .

           (  ) ,   , , , , .           :       ,  ,          .

       ,  ,     ,       .

               (,  ).

           .

         .   ,    ,     (fair value)   ,         .

       ,     , .                   ,     .           ,          .

          .              .      ,  ,        ,      ,     .  ,      ,            .

           ,     .

          (,      )  ,    ,         .        ,   .

,            ,              .

   ,    .           ,       (         )    ?      ,      ,        ,    .

,     ,  ,      ,  .             .       :      , ,       ,     .    ,       ,    .

    ,   .     ,  , ..      .               ,      . ,                ,         .

 ,   ,     ,         .

        ,    .       ,     .

    ,  ,      .        .

 ,      .  ,                 .

     ,     ,   .      ,        .   -    ,    , ,    .  ,   ,       .        ,         ,   .         ,  .

 -        ,    ,    ,      .       ?         ,  ,      .   ,         ,                  .

   ,      .

  ,     (  ) DCF-        . ,   ,  ,           30%  ,       ,             .        ,       :  , ,    - ,          ,      .       ,     . ,            ,      ,       ,         ,           ,                            ,     .          ,     .                   .

    ,     ,    .      ,        ,       . ,   ,   ,     .    ,      ,         ,     .

,   ,        . ,       (,       )    .

              ,       ,               . ,            ,           .          .        .     1990- .       ,    .          (strong dollar policy),       ,           2001. .

  ,  ,  -,    ().   ,           .                ,       .




1.1.  



      ()  .                        .

     :

   (spot),           ;

  (forward),           ;

   (OTC options),             ,   ,     ;

     (futures & options),          .



       :

Forex (Foreign Exchange)   ,        (     );

CME (IMM) & GLOBEX           IMM (International Monetary Market)     (CME);      GLOBEX.



          (Dollar Index),    NYBOT (New York Board of Trade)        .

       (floating currency)  Forex    1973.  ,  ,    - (Bretton Woods)  .

        ,       1976. ,         .            ,      .

          [1 -  .  . .: -, 1996.]       (Plaza Agreement),    1985. -  .               .

Forex       ,      .          ,    .         ,        ,     . ,         ,          .       ,        .

   Forex            ,           .       ,         :      (),      ()   (),       -,   - ().

            .  -  Forex            3   (    )      67 .       .       ,    , ,      .

      9       10 .           ,    .     -,     ,    ,   ,        .

   10  13          Forex.          ,         ,    -.

  13              () .      16 ,       .

             16.30.           .   Forex     ,     ࠖ        .    ,   ,        .             (     ),            ,      .

         17.30         ,          .

 21   . ,      Forex,      ,       .          ,  ,   , .

 23            ,        .

    GLOBEX   23.30,            .

             2  ,         (.1.1).






.1.1.  - USDJPY      ( )



       . 1.1,      .



 1.1.     






,     (2224 , ..     )   .          ,   .          EURUSD    $250     ,      15 .         $1.             ,    -      .

  Bank for International Settlements (BIS, http://www.bis.org (http://www.bis.org/))        Forex   2007.  $3.2 , ..        1998. ($1.5 ),     20   5 .       2001.

 15  ( 1992  2007.)     -   48  31%,     -   47  65% (.1.2). ,   -     ,   -   15    2.5 .






: www.bis.org (http://www.bis.org/)

.1.2.     Forex (),  .



       . 1.1,      .

 50%     Forex   .         25%  .        ,    2007.  35%  Forex.                    ,     (. 1.2).



 1.2.     




: www.bis.org (http://www.bis.org/)






: www.bis.org (http://www.bis.org/)

.1.3.     Forex ()



         ,          .      ,    ,               (.1.3).

            Forex- ,  , /,             /  /. ,             (.1.4).






: www.bis.org (http://www.bis.org/)

.1.4.     Forex ( ),  .



 :         $12.    ,          $100 000,   $5,    -, .. 50  .             -,        120 000[2 -   2003.].                   ,     Forex (.1.5).  ,    ,     .






.1.5.         ,  ,       1987  2000.




1.1.1. -


   -             ,        ,      ,          .

  (  )          .

      Forex     ,      1998.  $600  . ,   5%      -    ,    ,   .  95%     .

            ,      ,     -,    .  ,    ,     ,  ,   ,      - (.1.6).






: www.bis.org (http://www.bis.org/)

.1.6.     ,    [3 - -  .  1999. 25 ;  1999.    EMU    .].   19901999.   100



    (market maker  .  )   .        ,    ,    .      .        -.   ,    ,  $5.

      $1   (market taker  .  )   ,  ,  ,        .

         $500 000         .                . ,        ,   .

     ,      $100 000. ,  ,  ,         .

   ,      ,           $100 000.          ,     ,    ,      .        ,      ,             .

       :         USDRUB,     USDUAH,      EURUSD,        GBPUSD (      cable  [4 -      GBPUSD      ,             ()   ()       ,     .  ,     Reuters.    GBPUSD    ,     .         :     ?2.125  2.137.])  ..        ( ),      ( ).

        bid  ask ( ffer)        .   -         (,    ,      0.5 GBPUSD),       .    ,    ,       ,     .

 ,     -         .        , ,        .   ,    ,    .         (,     )    .

: USDJPY = 120.62/67, ..         120.67 ,     120.62.          .

         (pip;          )   (point).              . ,  USDJPY        62/67.    (120)      .    .

         (spread).   ,    ,         -  .                 ,  -.        ,     ,     (120.67   ),    (120.62).   ( 1  5        )      : EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY  EURJPY.       - ( 3  10 ,        ,     ), ..  ,       : EURCHF, EURGBP, GBPJPY  .. (.1.7).      USDCAD  AUDUSD.






: www.bis.org (http://www.bis.org/)

.1.7.   ,      52 .   20022005.   100



   ,   ,      ,     .                    .           ,  .             $25.   ,              .  ,  ,   ,       ,         ,              . ,  ,         ( $5)      .                .           ,      . ,       $5.      ,            .

     ,  ,   ,            .        .

     ,       Forex   $5. ,                ,     .                   ,   ,  (leverage),   (gearing),    .

            ,       ,        .

 ,         10  100.    ,  ,  ,  ,  ,             100,    .      ,    .   ,     ,      2  4,        .

,              ,    ? ,         $10 000,     100       $1.   100             Forex.           .          ,      .    ,      . , , ,         ,     Forex,   -   ,   margin call[5 -       (     )       .].    .                    (, 5  30%)    ,      ,       ,     .       ,       .        (,  20)        ,      .  ,  ,     ,     .                             .

  ,         Forex,         . ,              .             .           .    ,      ,       -       .      ,   50%   Forex    .           .      ,      .       ,      .       , ,   ,    ,         .     ,    ,       .

   :

   Reuters dealing;

 ;

 .



        .      .   ,      .      ,               .      -  Forex    ,       .                 .      :   1998.  40%  -  Forex     (    Reuters,    ).   BIS  2001.,  50  70%        .         40%  1998. 10%  1995.   BIS    2007.        -,      .

 ( ,   !)   Forex      $100.       ,    ,    .      Forex    .         .      ,    .          , ,     CFD (contract for difference    ).       (, $1000        $10 000)  .         . , ,      (, ,   ..),         .






: www.ecb.int (http://www.ecb.int/)

.1.8.    EURUSD, EURJPY  USDJPY (19782007)



  Forex  -    -Forex.         , ..         ( ,   ..).  ,    -Forex    1  10            $100.




1.1.2.  


              ,         .   ,      .

  ,  ,          1, 2, 3, 6  12 .

   :

 (outright)         ;

 (swap)           .



     (  )    -   .   :            , ..   .

,      . ,   100 000 EUR  () JPY   118.00.             (overnight)   .       .         4%, ,      10.96  (100 000 ? 4% / 365).         1%,       323.3  (100 000 ? 118 ? 1% / 365)    2.74  (323.3/118).  ,           8.22 .              ,      EURJPY,           3000 .    1000          300% .  ,     ,         100.

                .   ,     -         .  ,      ,            .            .   ,  ,      .             , .. .  ,                .

     ,       .                     ,          . -,           . -,      .  ,    :            . , ,        :        ,          ,    .




1.1.3.     


 (options)    ,   ,    (futures)    (. 1.3).



 1.3.       ( 1  2000.)






    (OTC options),   (),       :    ,   ,     .     ,        ,        .       ,            .

       (futures & options)                      . ,         .




1.1.4.   


    :

 ;

   ;

,    ;

  ;

 ;

  ;

  .



,          ,      ,             ,       .

         .   ,        ,      (US Federal Reserve  FED),    (European Central Bank  ECB);   (Deutsche Bundesbank  BBK,      Buba),   (Bank of England  BOE,   Old Lady)    (Bank of Japan  BOJ).

                ,   -    . ,       2007.     $1.4 ,  ,   ,         .

  XXI.       ,       (.1.9).            .    ( )         20  8%.






: ,  

.1.9.     ( 2006.)






: 

.1.10.       ,  . ()



   2001.         56%.             41%  2007. ,         ,          . ,     ,              16%,      1999.   2%.                   2007.   7%,   1999.   3%.

,          ,              [6 - .: http://www.petersoninstitute.org (http://www.petersoninstitute.org/).].    1999  2007.      23  36% (.1.10).        ,       .    , ,   ,  ,   .








    ()    1913.           ,       .       ,           .








 1  2006.      (Chairman)    (1953),       .








      ,       ,        1990- .         ,    -  ,               .

  -            ,     ,  ,                  .       ,               .  ,  ,     ,         .

             (safe currency)      ,    .

   ,      ,         :         ?         ,        .    6  1996.            ,     .

   .     ,        .  ,              ,        - ,       .               .            ,      , ,          .               堖  2007. , 18            FOMC.      ,               50 :  5.25  4.75%.

   , ,       ,        , FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee     ).








FOMC      .         .     -   ;          FOMC   .

       46 ,         ,  ,  ,       -  . FOMC          .  FOMC  .

     FOMC     http://www.federalreserve.gov (http://www.federalreserve.gov/).  ,        ,     ,   ,       ,      .








 90- .           (Robert Rubin),   10  1995.  2  1999.      (Secretary of the Treasury, U.S. Department of Treasury).               (Lawrence H. Summers).  20  2001.  72-  ,       ,   ' (Paul H. O'Neill).  13  2003.       (John William Snow),      3 . ,        2003.,           17.5% ( 1.04  1.26)     . 10  2006.    , 74-   ( )    . - (Henry M. Paulson, Jr.).   -     (CEO) Goldman Sachs,     ,     1974.    .     ,                  ,   .      ,     ,     ,       .        .

           http://www.ustreas.gov (http://www.ustreas.gov/).

     , ,      ,     . ,  1995.    ,             $6.5      . ,   , 19  1995.,           79.75   ,     1970- .     300   .       ,          .








 ,            1995.,     1997.

  1990- .          (Lloyd Bentsen).








    ,     ,      .     ( 1993.),         .                  ,    1992.     $49.4.

  1993.  ,         .             126  100   .    1994.     113 ,     ,          .     .     1995.   37%    ,         .








   2000- .  ,      ,        ,       -.     ,           ,          .     .       ,      .








   ()       1998.,               ,     ,       .

       (Willem F. Duisenberg),   1  2003.         -  (Jean-Claude Trichet).








                http://www.ecb.int (http://www.ecb.int/).








         .    ,  1  1993.   1999.,     (Hans Tietmeyer), -   1990- .,            .   ,        .      ,           .          . , 9  1997.    34 ,  Bloomberg News,     ,    - .

        . -    ,      ,      .               (Helmut Kohl)   -       .

             ,             .         .

 1  1999.        (Ernst Welteke).








       http://www.bundesbank.de (http://www.bundesbank.de/).








  Old Lady,    ,  30  2003.     (Mervyn Allister King).     10  ( 1  1993.)        (Edward Alan John George).

          http://www.bankofengland.co.uk (http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/).













    2003.    (Toshihiko Fukui),       (Toshiro Muto)    (Kazumasa Iwata).           , , ,  ,    .         .








        http://www.boj.or.jp (http://www.boj.or.jp/).








       ,   ,          .

    ,  1990- .     -       (Eisuke Sakakibara),    (Mr. Yen),      ,     .    ,        1995.   1996.        .         $40,    ,     .

          ( )   .               .       ,     ,           .

              ,         .             ,     ,    .

  ,     ,       ,     .              ,    ,  .   ,          ,    .              ,     .

           (Kiichi Miyazawa),          .

-          (Masajuro Shiokawa),   ,      80.  , 22  2003.,       (Sadakazu Tanigaki).








         http://www.mof.go.jp (http://www.mof.go.jp/).






   ,     



   (Sovereign Wealth Funds),  ,       .         ,  ,         2011. ,   2007.         $3   $5      .   Morgan Stanley ,   2011.    ( $6.5 ),   2017.        ,    $17.5   $10  .

,    ,    .           .       , , , , , .         1960.       XXI.       . ,            .            -    .              ,          .

         :          2007.     $100   ,     ,   .

  ,   ,  Barclays Bank, Chase Manhattan Bank, Citibank, Deutsche Bank, Standard Chartered Bank, Union Bank of Switzerland,     ,    .         .               3/4         1000  .      ,        .

, ,   -[7 -     (funds).]     .                .          ,             ,    ,     ,            .

              -.          ,       .         .   ,        .                 ,      .     -.  -       ,  -    ,    .        ( 30-  60- . XX. ),        .                      -,       .          .   ,       ,        .

       -      .      ,  -  -            ,         .

         Quantum Fund,      (George Soros),       XX .








      ,    .  1992. Quantum Fund              . ,      .       Old Lady,                      ( 15%).        3.4  ,    $1    Quantum Fund   (.1.11).

,          4.5%, 16  1992.      .  , ,   9           8%.                ,           .

                       [8 - .:  .  . .: -, 1996.].






: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk (http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), http://www.bundesbank.de (http://www.bundesbank.de/)

.1.11.      1992.



,            . ,     7  1998.    $380 ( 4%  Quantum Fund),           25  .        -  -     (Carry trade)     .    ,       ,    .

  $2      - ,    -   ,     1998.








  (Warren Buffett),              ,  2002.       .              .          ,         ,   .             . ,    1957  1995.       27%  .     ,    ,     1969  1995.    34%  ,         .

        1964.   Berkshire Hathaway (http://www.berkshirehathaway.com (http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/)),          (. 1.4).   ,    - ,         ,          .



 1.4.       Berkshire Hathaway




:   Berkshire Hathaway (2003)



               .        .

    ,      .

 2002.             .        ,   :     ,      . ,  .

  2004.    Berkshire Hathaway   ,    2002.             ,    2003.   ,                .   ,            (.    ).

      Berkshire Hathaway  2002.    $193,   2003. $536.    31  2003.           $11  $630.  ,        20022003.  $1.3. ,       .   ,  ,   20022003.    .     :                (.1.12).






: www.federalreserve.gov (http://www.federalreserve.gov/)

.1.12.      

   Berkshire Hathaway(  2003.)



  2002.     ,    ,   2003.   ,          .      ,         .   Berkshire      ,       .

          Berkshire   .                      .             .  ,  2002-,      ,         (. . .).                .     ,   ,  ?   ( . . .) .             .

       Berkshire     .    ,  Berkshire             Berkshire.  . 1.5 ,      (  ) Berkshire      .  ,       -     .             . ,    20%      $1.6,       20%      $3.2.        $1.6           31  2003.    ($630).                ,    Berkshire.      ,  -          . ,       ,              .



 1.5.     Berkshire Hathaway




:   Berkshire Hathaway (2003)



        ,       General Motors, Ford, Coca-Cola, Johnson & Johnson, British Petroleum, Sumitomo, Mitsubishi, Daimler-Chrysler  ..

                .      ,                .       ,     ,  .         Forex         ,       .       ,  ,   .

       Bierbaum, Coutts, Harlow Buttler, Lasser Marshall, Tradition, Tullet and Tokio  .

  ,      ,     , , .

         ,     ,     .                      ,          .




1.1.5.    



                  ,  ,   .

                   ,       .        ,    ,    .     ,                 ,   .




        


2 1792.     (US Dollar).

18211914.   ,         (GBP)       .

1914.                .   ,    ,    .

1922.   ,               .

1925.             .       ,       (,  ). ,          ,  .

1929.    .         36%.       ,     ,          1930  1932.     80%.             .   1929  1933.         .

1931.     ,       .     ,      .        .           .

11  1931.                .

11  1931.  ,              (   1921.).           ,       .

 1931.           .          .

5  1933.           .

1933.   .    , , , ,   .           ,    1920- .

30  1934.       ,        ,  $35   .     1971.

 1935.         .

 1936.    .

25  1936.  ,     ,                .             .   ,           (              ).

 1944.  - ,     .  44       ,       ,    1934. ($35   ).       (, IMF)   .

 1945.    - .

1  1947.   .

1947.        ,      .     ,   -                 $2.6,      $4  .

15  1947.        .              .

20  1947.     .

 1948.      ,        .         60 ,       .          100:6.5.

1  1948.          .

1948.        .

 1949.     .

18  1949. 35%-      .    $2.80  .

1950.     (),        (    , OECD).          .

18  1951.      ,         (   ).

 1954.             .         .

 1955.     .

1958.     17.55%,     .

27  1958.             .           ().        .

1959.    .     100 .

20  1960.           $40  ,        .

1960.   .          .   1960.   1967.      $35.35   .

 1961.           .          .

  1962.   (        Cuban missile crisis).   ,       ,        .    1962  1966.     .         XX ,          .

24  1964.     ,      ,                  .

1965.    .

 1966.      .

511  1967.        (,   ).     ,                  ,  .

18  1967.     14.3%.       ,     ,   .            .         ,          .      $2.80  $2.40.

1517  1968.   .       . -                           .

 1968.    ,            .        .

1969.        (, XDR).             .   1           0.888671   .        ,    , ,     .          .          .

8  1969.     11%     .

28  1969.         ,         .

27  1969.          9.3%.

1970.     ,    .

35  1971.     ,           ( 9%   1970.  3.7%   1971.).           4.6%.

9  1971.            7.1  5.1%.

15  1971.     .         ,      1971.    .        .

1718  1971.  [9 -   (Group of Ten  G10)    1962.    , , , , , , , ,   .]      (Smithsonian Agreement),              $35  $38   ,              .          2.25%   .        .      7.66%.

7  1972.          .  ,         1.125%        .   ,     (2.25  4.5% ),   .         .      -   .

 1972.          .

 1973.           ,   .

27  1973.             .

12  1973.        $38  $42.2   .                (        12  7.5% ). -       ,   -  .                      .    -        ,           .

19  1973.              .           360   .          .

17  1973.         ,        .

 1973.              .        ,          .

16  1973.  .      : 16      70%,        .          ,        .       $14.3  1972.  $90.5  1974.   2003.  $63  $350 .  !                 19741975.         .

26  1974.  -    -   .

1974.     .

1975.           .

 1976.           .                  .

1976.        .    ( ,  ,  )   ,    ( ,     )  .

10  1977.        .

 1977.          ,                   .         .  30%-    1974.    .

 1978.                .

1  1978. , ,           .       .

13  1979.    .         (ECU  European Currency Unit).

1979.   ,      .      .         ,        .               ,              .

6  1979.        .  (Paul A. Volker).                        11  12%.     .

21  1980.         $52.5  $875   .

22  1981.        (fed fund rate),        (overnight)          22.36%.      1982.,    .

13  1982.   ,            .      ,             .

 1983.   .

1984.    ,        .

24  1984. 11             -   .

 1984.              ,           .

IV  1984.     ,    .        .            . C      .

22  1985.     (Plaza agreement)  -   (, , ,   ).               .                  .

  1986.            .    1985.                     .              ,  $2  .                 .

 1986.           ,         . ,  1985.        (2-     ),  (1- ,  50%   ),  (1- ),   (2-   ).   1985  1988.         50%.

 1987.                ,    ,      .         19    .

 1987.       .        5  2.5%,      1986.   1987.    ,     -      C  .         ,            .

19  1987.      -  .      508 ,   22%  ,       1929.     ,   .            , , ,    .      30 .

 1988.       ,     :       ,      .        .

 1989.   (.1.13)    Nikkei-225 (38 957 ).            .       1987.      2.5%. ,   ,  1989  1990.        ( 5 ),    6%.                .

1990.  ,              .           ,     .






: www.yahoo.com (http://www.yahoo.com/)

.1.13.     Nikkei-225



1991.      ,     1998.      80%   .

15  1991.     ,          .

9  1992.        .   14  ,  22  ,      14.7%.

15  1992.        .             16.5%     (.1.14).

16  1992.                ,     .        .        $1       3.4  .






: http://www.bundesbank.de (http://www.bundesbank.de/)

.1.14.          1992.



  1993.          .             .

 1993.           .    ,   .      ,            .

4  1994.             3.0  3.25%.                   300  ( 1.7350  1.7650).

1994.        40%.          .    1995.        ,   .

17  1995.              .

27  1995.   (  1762.)   Barings         Nikkei      .          .             ING,       ING-Barings.

8  1995.                  1.3430   88.60 .         50 ,          .        8%.

19  1995.     .            .         1.3455   79.70 .   1995.      12%      22%   .             .

20  1995.          1%.        ( 2%)         .

25  1995.      (, , , , ,   )  .      .              .

29  1995.     25 .               .       , , , , ,   .      .                .         .

 1996.      .    ,      /      107  110    .          .

 1996.  1997.       1992.      ,     20%.          .          .             .

 1997.    .            7%.     .

89  1997.     .     ,          .         .         5%.

27  1997.           .         1997.         .   (           )            .     ,               .

 1997.       .      10%.       ,        ,  ,      (   ).

17  1998.   ,      (  )               ,   ,   7.  .            20./.

 1998.  (.1.15)   100      (  $11  ).   ,            ,  .

 1999.         .                .         ,      ( ,   ..  ,    ;   )       .       1.1750.           .

 1999.     1.2  2.1    .

10  2000.      Nasdaq Composite  5132.52  (.1.16).

26  2000.        0.8250,      89.3 (  ).               0.83  0.93.            ,  30  2003.     140.31 (+57%   ).






: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov (http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/)

.1.15.    , $  






: www.yahoo.com (http://www.yahoo.com/)

.1.16.     Nasdaq Composite ( )



 2001.       .   5       $260  $676   , .. 2.6  (.1.17).      .                     .






: www.crbtrader.com (http://www.crbtrader.com/), www.kitco.com (http://www.kitco.com/)

.1.17.        CRB



11 2001.          -    (World Trade Centre  WTC)  , -,   3500 .   ,    ,          .     ,   2002.       2003.,   ,  .            .

1  2002.     .            .

 2002.     ,           (1:1)  2.1:1.      ,   ,   .

 2002.   .      ,    1996.,      .      ,      ,  ,      .     2002.,      ,      .               ,            .

 2002.    .       0.90.

 2002.    Nasdaq-100    (1172.06 ),     23%    ,    2000.

13  2003.           (John William Snow).       1.05.               .

 2003.    Nikkei-225    (7603.76 ),     20%    ,    1989.

20  2003.           , .       :  ,        .  ,                       ,    .          .                 2.5%,      1.4%.  EURUSD  USDJPY  ,     ,  1.1312  114.85 .  ,     (HKD),           10         (.1.18).                 .   ,   ,     ,     .






.1.18.                     ( )



30 2004.       1  1.25%.       2000.,      ,         2000 .   1%,    46 ,     .  ,     ,        (target for the federal funds rate),          ,  , .        ,          ,              ,        .

 2005.          .           ,       (.1.19).

22  2005.            ,     .         (  ).          8.5%  10   (.1.20).    :      ,   .






: www.cbr.ru (http://www.cbr.ru/)

.1.19.        






: www.pbc.gov.cn (http://www.pbc.gov.cn/)

.1.20.              



10 2006.    , 74-     . - (Henry M. Paulson, Jr.).  -     (CEO) Goldman Sachs,   ,     1974.    .

  2007.  ,       subprime-,               15%. -           NINJA,    ,    : No Income, No Job, No Assets ( ,  ,  ).     .          (arry trade),        (       12% )      (,       ).            ,   ,     ,    .     ,        . -              $300.  ,      ,        .            .                      , ,    .      ,     ,   .    ,  ,         ,    .      ,      ,                ,       2007.




1.2.  


   ,         .         ,   ,       .             ,     . ,      1929.      ,          .

     ( , securities):

   ()  ,    ;

            (       ,    ),    ( ) ;

    ,     ;

     ;

   ;

  .



 (stocks, equities)       .     .       [10 -  (dividends)   ,    .                 ,                .             .],        ,        ,    .

        ( ,    )      .

               (, , ,   ,   ..).

         ()    ;     .

   ,    /        .



 1.6.     






     /               .  ,         .          ,   ,    ,      .

  ,    ,          (, ,   .)    -   (  )    (  )   .    ,   , .        ,      .             ( ,  80%   ),      .        ,  .     .            .                  .

,          ,         .

    ()                (,       )    (   ,          ).            .      XII.,                    .             ,    .

,            ,    .      American Express  Thomas Cook.

,       ,         .      ,     .

   :

        ,           ;

          .    ,          ;

  (  )  ,   ,         .            ,     ( )    ( );

     ,           ;

       ,  ,      .;

      ;

        ,   ,   -   ..



      XIIXV.           , , , , , .   (Borsa)       Van der Burse,         (ter buerse)        ,     .

 XVI.         .        ,     ,      .     :       .  XVII.          .         .

  XVII.      (London Stock Exchange  LSE),             .  LSE      (bull)   (bear)     .

        ,          (    to sell bear's skin before one has caught the bear).   ,           .   ,    ,      .    ,       .       .

 ,       (  ),        .

      .         ,   .    ,          .   ,            .       ,     .  ,    ,           .         .

     .       ,    .        ,       .      ,      ,   .        ,    .        ,     . ,        ,   .

                60- . XVI.,   1568.        .   90- . XVII.        ,         .           ,    .         .

          330  (  ).                .           NASDAQ.

         :

NYSE Euronext   -   (New York Stock Exchange,  17  1792.)    (Euronext, );

NASDAQ (Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation         ,   1971.).



      ,    AMEX:

LSE (London Stock Exchange    , ),      SEAQ (Stock Exchange Automated Quotations)      ;

TSE (Tokyo Stock Exchange    , );

DB (Deutsche Boerse    , );

SSE (Shanghai Stock Exchange    , );

SEHK (Stock Exchange Hong Kong    ),     ;

AMEX (American Stock Exchange    , ,   1860.).  1953.    Curb Exchange;

TSE (Toronto Stock Exchange    ),      CATS (Computer-Assisted Trading System);

PHLX (Philadelphia Stock Exchange    ,    ,   1790.).



        ,       ,        . ECN (Electronic Communication Networks    ).  ,          (Securities and Exchange Comission  SEC),   ,   ,              .   2008.     ECN:

Instinet (http://www.instinet.com (http://www.instinet.com/))  Island (  Instinet)       .   24             .  2006.  ECN    NASDAQ;

Archipelago Exchange,    NYSE Arca (http://www.nyse.com (http://www.nyse.com/)).   2006.  ECN    NYSE.   2008.          .

           ,            ,        ECN.         :           ,      (,      ,      ),    .      ,     ,     ,             .       ,         , NYSE  NASDAQ,             .   ECN    ,      .

          ,     , ,  ,  .

                      ,     .        1990- .,           ,           .        ,           .      1995.,          (hi-tech).          1999.,          .           ,        hi-tech,    ,   (,    ).

    ,  ,            . ,        ,  -   ( )    ,  .            ,        .           .         ,    ,   .

             ,        -,     .      ,     TrimTabs:

,    ;

,    ;

,     ;

 ,     ,   .



                     .

                  ,        www.trimtabs.com (http://www.trimtabs.com/).

         - http://www.smartmoney.com/funds (http://www.smartmoney.com/funds)/,    50  .              , ,     .         ,      .

      ,          ,   ,           ,   .  ,     ,      ,  ,  10  500.

            .  ,   1970- .        ,       .              (DJI-30  ), Standard & Poor (S&P 500  ), Nasdaq (Nasdaq-100  ), Footse (FTSE-100  ), Dax (DAX-30  )  Nikkei (Nikkei-225  ).             ,    1884.

    ,      ,    .          Dow Jones Industrial ( ;    30   ), DJ Transport ( ;    20  ), DJ Utilities ( ;    15 ,     -, -,   .. ), DJ Composite ( ;     ).

     (  )       LIFFE (London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange),   .  2002. LIFFE   Euronext, ,   ,  2007.    NYSE-Euronext.

     CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade  ), CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange  ,     ), DTB (Deutsche TerminBorse  ).




1.3.   



          .  ,      . ,   ,  ,    .      ,      .            .

,         .      .

     .     ,     , ,    ,      .

     ,     . :   ,       .

           ,     ,     Bloomberg  ,       ,       .

     :

       ,    .             .    ,      .        (),  ;

       ,   Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley Dean Writer, Goldman Sachs  .    , ,    ;

  ;

 ;

  ,     .



      .




   


         ,  .   ,        ,       .       .     ,    .

           ,  .

,             ,   , ,      .

       .                      .

         ,   ,      ,      .

  11          .

      ? , .        . , -,         .        ,    . -,            . -,    .

           ,          . ,           ,                           .




   


        ,   ,      .          -.    ,             .          ,            (G-8)        (Davos).            (      ),          : ,    ,       .

         .

   :

    (  GDP).      ,  , ;

   (trade deficit).   ,  ,     ,      ;

   (payment deficit).          ;

  :    (CPI)     (PPI).      ,      .          ,                ;

   (,   ..).      ,  , ;

   (unemployment).    ,            ,       (non-farm payrolls).  ,  ,      -         ;

    (  M0   M3,     4).   ,  ,     .             ,  ,    . , ,  2006.     3, ,   ,    -     ;

 (elections)   (,   ..),    .           ,   ;

   (retail sales).        ,         60% ;

    (housing starts, building permits, new home  existing sales).       ,      ,    ,  ,  .        2007.      ;

        (manufacture orders  durable goods orders ).    ,  ,   ;

       (industrial production  capacity utilization ).              .



              (Reuters, Dow Jones, AFX, Knight Ridder, Futures World News  ..),     -.

      ,        ,        , ,   .            (economic calendars),  :

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html (http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html);

http://www.thestreet.com/_tscsubnav/markets/databank/index.html (http://www.thestreet.com/_tscsubnav/markets/databank/index.html);

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/marketsummary/calendars.



       ,       :

     ;

   ,            ;

 ;

  (NIKKEI, Dow Jones, DAX, FTSE  ..)                 ;

    (T-bills, T-Notes, T-bonds  .)             ,  ,     .            .



 ,   -     ,          . ,    .            ,   .   ,  ,       .       , ,  ,    .

          ,   ,      ,  ,   ..      ,     ,           (     ).

            ,          .

       .

  ,      .             ,     .     ,     ,  .

          ,    . ,      2%,        4%, ..      .            .

        ,     .         .              ,      . ,       ,         ,          ,   .

     ,                           .  , ,     ,   .

         ,         ,       (  )   .

    ,             ( ),    ( ).

          ,         ,       .

 .1.21    ,           ,              ,    .






.1.21.           



        ,      ,      .            .     .   ,      , , , -         .        ,     ,    ,          .   .

  ,           .   ,      ,   ,         .       ,      . ,         ,    ,       .

                ,    ,  ,         .

     ,      :               ,  ,    . ,                 , ..       .             .

                -  ,   ,      .      .

  ,     ,                ,       .              ,   ,  ,    ,   .     ,  ,  .      ,  .

,  ,       ,      .          ,  .                     .   ,    .

 ,              ,       .     .

           .

 ,             . ,    .1.22             16  21  1996.     18 .              .    ( $11)          $4.                   150 ,         /.          ,     (     )   ,     .






.1.22.         






.1.23.        



       .        .          ,        ,  ,    ,   . ,                   .

   .1.23             (19951996)   .                   .       ;     20002001.




1.4.   



          .           ,    .             .

       -                ,       .     /       ,    .

        -    . ,     ,  ,       .

            .          ,        .     -        .   ,   .        -,     .  .    ,        ?

          ,          ,       .     ,     .     ,      ,            .           ,       .        .

          ,        .          ,       .       ,   .

         ,               , , , , ,   ..

,             ,      .

 , ,  150        -  -.             .   ,     ,  ,          .               ,   ,          .  ,  ,               .

,      .




   


       .         ,     ,         .         .    -,    Economist (The Economist's Big Mac index).        http://www.economist.com/markets/Bigmac/Index.cfm (http://www.economist.com/markets/Bigmac/Index.cfm).     -    .

                      .

       ,   .        ,          .        ? , ,        .      ,  .    ,      .     .

,   , ,      .   ,      .                   .

       ,        .             ,         .  ,      ,     (  19952000.),          .           ( :  19801990- .).

   (   )     .            .         .        ,  ,     .

            ,   ,       .           ,               ,  .          .          ,      ,     .




 


    ,      .          ,     .

       ,  ,     ,         .              .     ,    ,    .    ,  ,      .

                .           .







   , ,     ,    ,             .      .       .

    ,      .    ,       ,     ,    .    -    ,          XXXXI.      60%        ,         ,      .

   (   2%)  ,                 ,   , ..     ,   .







    ,         .             .  ,   ,   .   ,   ,          .

    ,         ,   ,  ,    .      ? ,     ,   .

              .    ,            .        ,  ,     .   , ,         .    ,     .




 


 ,       ,     .         ,       .    ,  ,          .                  ,          . ,     ,    . , ,    (      2003.)  .     ,      .

   ( ,  2% )           .      ,     .            ( ,          ,   ..)   .          ,      .        ,    .                .                  ,     .         ,    , ,  ,         .

      ,  ,     ,      .      ,       ,  , .       ,     .   -         ,      ,  ,     .          .

    2%     (  2%)          .




 


             .  ,            ,     .         :

      ,           ;

  -     ,   ,        .             .



       .             60- .          ,       1971.         .     ,     ,   ,          ,   .      ,   ,        .

            .     .      .  ,             .       ,   ,          .   ,              .          ,        ,    .




  .


   .

   ,     (http://www.litres.ru/erik-nayman/malaya-enciklopediya-treydera-5/)  .

      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .



notes








1


 .  . .: -, 1996.




2


  2003.




3


-  .  1999. 25 ;  1999.    EMU    .




4


     GBPUSD      ,             ()   ()       ,     .  ,     Reuters.    GBPUSD    ,     .

         :

     ?

2.125  2.137.




5


      (     )       .




6


.: http://www.petersoninstitute.org (http://www.petersoninstitute.org/).




7


    (funds).




8


.:  .  . .: -, 1996.




9


  (Group of Ten  G10)    1962.    , , , , , , , ,   .




10


 (dividends)   ,    .                 ,                .             .


