   
 

 


Top Business Awards
    .  , , -     .            ,  .  ,       , : ,    ,    ,  . ,   ,     ,      .      ,    ,     ,     .  200      ,          ,          .





 ,  

   



Shaping the Fourth Industrial Revolution

Klaus Schwab, Nicholas Davis



 2018 by World Economic Forum All rights reserved.

Title of the English original version: Shaping the Fourth Industrial Revolution, published 2018.

This translation of Shaping the Fourth Industrial Revolution is published by arrangement with the World Economic Forum, Cologny, Switzerland.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, whether by electronic, mechanical and/or photocopying means without the prior written permission of the World Economic Forum, Cologny, Switzerland.



 2018 by World Economic Forum All rights reserved.

 .   , 2018

  .


* * *




    







 . , Big Data      

    -     ,       ,    .        ?         ? ,       .



BIG DATA.     

       ?              ?  ,     ,    .                     Big Data.



 . ,     

     ,      ,   ,     .       ,       ,    .



 .   -   

   :    ,   ,     ,   .     Google, Apple, Alibaba      ,    -     .




   





,        ,      .   ,   ,         ,  -,           .

       .       ,    ,    .                XXI .

        . ,               ,          .

  ,     ,    ,      .       ,    ,     .        ,      .          ,     .    .

 ,           堖        !










                      (Klaus Schwab).       ,        .

                   ,         蠖       ,    .  ,   ,        :  ,     .         ,        ,          . ,               ,        ,       .   ()    ,          ,    . ,         , ,            .      ,   ,     ,        .  ,           ,     .

                     .        .  ,        ,       Ƞ   .      ,     -      ,    ,    .               ,  ,      ࠖ    ,     .        ,        ,         .   2016  Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Facebook  IBM       ,      .  ࠖ    ,            .               ,     ;     ,         .

          ,       .                  (   ,        ).        :             .    ,   ,   ,          .           ,     ,  ,         .

     堖 .    - ,       .        젖   .

  蠖    .               ,   ,        .   ,        ,  -      .




 





   .    ,              ,    .  ,     ,    ,  ,              ,    ,    .

   , ,          ,      ,        .             ,       ,   젖    .

         ,   ,    ,           .  , ,  ,      ,    ,      .

          .            ,  ,  ,    .            .      ,      堖          ,     .             ,    .

    :             .    ,    ,   .          ,    .

        .         ,      ,        .      ,        ,                  .

           ,      ,        ,    , ,   .

       ,                   ,   .

 ࠖ            .  ,                 .            .          .

      (Nicholas Davis),         ,     (Thomas Philbeck),        ,    ,    .       (Anne Marie Engtoft Larsen),      ,         .

      (Katrin Eggenberger)      ,   (Kamal Kimaoui)    ,   (Fabienne Stassen)   ,     (Mel Rogers),     -        .

,        ,    - ,    ,      ,                  ,       .    ,    ,             , ,    .  ,  ,     ࠖ    (The Fourth Industrial Revolution),     .







   2016           ,             :



  頖   ,              ,        :   .      ,        ,    , ,     .            ,     .       .


        .    -      ,       .  ,           -   ,     .

        . -,     젖           ,             ,    ,    . -,            ,          .



  :

          ,            1800 .

  ,           :      ,       ,     ,       .

,       ,   : ,     ; ,   , ,    ; ,      ;            .

     ,          ,       ,    ,   .      ,                  ,      .

         ,              .  ,      ,        ,  ,    :  ,    ,         ,   .



 ,    ,    ,    ,     .  ,        ,              ,     ,            .

           ,       .           ,      ,        .   ,             ,      ,    ,    ,          .

    ,    ,      ,      .      ,   ,    .




 1

  





 1

   



                      .   1       ,    ,    ,    ,      ,           .




    


  :  ,         ,   .         ,     ,       ,     .   ,   ,     ,      .   ,          .

        ,        .      ,       ,     , ,   (3D-), , ,    ,     .        ,      .

        ,   .  ,      ,  젖         ,         ⠖ ,      , ,     ,     .

        .       ,     .       ,     ,   ,  .

   ,   ,     ,         ,       , ,   .             -     ,    .

        ,        ,   ,          ,   ,     ,   .

    , , , ,   ,    ,        ,    ,    .   ,      ,   ,      ,  ,       ,    .             ,     .




 ,   


  250     .         .       ,     .    ,       ,         .

          XVIII    - .                ,  ,  ,  .           ,           :    ,    .          ,     industry    XIX    (Thomas Carlyle)     (John Stuart Mill),       ,    .

          ,    .  1750      , , , ,            0,2%  ,      .    ,  ,           .   1850             23%,       [1 -         .     (Nicholas Crafts),  1780  1801       9,7%  ,       5,6%    1801  1831 .     5,1%  4,6%  ( 1987).].

   1870  1930             . , , ,         .        ,             .     :    ,   ,   . ,    ࠖ  (Haber Bosch)     ,   1950-      [2 -   (Vaclav Smil)          ( 2005).].       ࠖ      .

  1950          .       .   ,       ,        .  ,           .        .            ,    .

 ,         (),       .          30100 ,   1800 [3 -  (McCloskey) 2016.].  .1        ,         ,            ,   ,      .

.1   .         ,         1750 [4 -      (UNDP)        ,              ,    .    ,            .         ,  ,     ,     .     ,         : ,      (UNDP 2017).].  ,                 ,      蠖 ,  , , .  ,       ,   .         (Robert Gordon)[5 -  (Gordon) 2016.].






 1.          , 17502017

:   



  頖  , ,    堖      .     ,         ,        ,      .                  2900%[6 -  (McCloskey) 2016.].              : 40     80     23,5  65  .




   


,       ,            (.2).       ,    ,    ,       .         ,   ,         , , 蠖    ,     .






 2.        2050  (   )

:   



            . ,            ,             .          頖  ,    ,       ,     .         ,    .          ,        堖       .       ,        ,             .

 ,        ,   ,           .  ,        ,   ,     ,                .         ,   ,         ?      ,     ,   .      ,             ,      .



 :       .   ,   ,     .        1970-     ,    ,    .        2,4%    2011  2016 ,   2015      25       ,   -     [7 -        2016.].           : - ,     ,                .                ,        .



 :         .             ,        ,  ,       .

                         .             ,     ,      .                    .            ,       -,     .



 : ,             .      ,        .  ,     ,   ,   ,     ,  ,   .    ,          .     12,      ,      ,   .          .       ,      ,      .      ,      .          ,       .




    


      ,                ,       .      ,  ,            ,      ,       .       ,      :         ;             ,         [8 -   2017.].    (Madeleine Albright),     XXI         XX      XIX . ,        .        XXI .

    ,        ,       :

1.,   .        ,       ,   .    ,               ,      .         .

2. ,    .   ,            ,     .          , ,      .   ,             ,        ,    .

3. ,    .           ,     ,     .        .  ,        ,        ,   ,  ,         .

4.  ,   .       ,         ,     .          ,             ,     .              ,    ,       .      ,   ,           .

           , ,   , , -    .      ,    ,            .




      


  ,   , ,      ,      ,     ,   ,   ,   .      젖 ,      頖     ,        ,       .

 ,  ,      ,   -    ,           .                   .    ,        ,     ,         .      ,     ,   ,      ,            .

   ?

          ,     .       .




 

         .      ,   ࠖ    .    ,          ,          ,   ,   ,   .

        .      ,             .     ,  :



1.,       .

2.       .

3. ,            .



  ,     ,    ,      ,         ,             .

 ,    ,      :



1.,   .

2. ,    .

3. ,    .

4.  ,   .



,               .    :   㠖  ,      .





 2

  


              ,   ,    (John Hagel)    (zoom-in, zoom-out).       ,   ,          蠖    2.      ,     .     ,  ,      .

    ,   ,        .      ,       ,    ,       ?       ,        .   ࠖ     ,            .      ,        .  2         12 ,    .

      .           ,        .           .    ,     ,  ,               .          .     ,  , ?      ,     .      ,  ,           ,     ,    ,   ,      ,   ,   .






 3. ,       100 

: Boston Consulting Group ITU; Statista; BCG research; mobilephonehistory.co.uk (http://mobilephonehistory.co.uk/); Scientific American, Internet Live Stats; iTunes; Fortune; OS X Daily; VentureBeat; Wired; Digital Quarterly; TechCrunch; AppMtr.com



           ,         .         ,         ,      . ,   ,     ,     .                ,    ,     60 .       ,    蠖     .    :                .    ,      ,    ,    -    .

  ,            .          ,       ,     ,       .






 4.    ,           2017.

: CB Insights (2017)



          ,    ,       .        ,   ,       ,          ,      .

        ,        .     ,           .          ,    ,          .       ,     ,             .    .3,  75 ,      100,           10 .       ,       ,  ,  ,     .    .4, ,     ,       ,           .   -   (  )     .

      ,            .       ,      .            -,      젖 ,     .         ,         ,   . , 3D-     :         .           ,         . ,           .             . ,  UPS    3D-     100     ,    ,       ,     .

            ,     .       .   ,       ,           .       ,       .          .       :       ?    ?

          ,    ,      .     ,       .      ,          .  ,              .            .

         ?       .         ,     ,      .  ,           .      ,   ,   ,     ,      ,     .    ,   ,          ,         .         . ,          ,       .             ,        ⠖   .           .  ,     ,        ,  ,     .

,       ,      ࠖ   .      (Don Boudreaux),            ,    ,  ,     .            .           .           ,     .           .

,          ,      ,        .   ,        ,   . ,   Google   90%    , Facebook 77%    ,  Amazon  75%   [9 - The New York Times 2017.].   ,             ,     [10 -      (OECD) 2016.].        ,    ,          .

       ,             . ,          ,  3D-       .  ,   ,       .     ,            .   ,                ?     .   3     ,   ,        ,          ,       .






 5  6.      

:  (Autor),  (Levy)   (Murnane) (2003);   Blackrock (2014)



      ࠖ    .    .5  6,     .    ,      ,            .            ,    [11 -  (Berger)   (Frey) 2015.].           ,        .           ,  ,       .         ,     . ,   94%   ,   20052015 ,          ,     -     [12 -  (Katz)   (Krueger) 2016.].                       ,        .            ,         [13 -    2017b.].

            .    .7,     ,          ,       . ,     ,   , ,   ,           ,     .      ,    ,          , ,      -[14 - The San Francisco Examiner 2017.].      [2 -  ,    . . .]    2017  (Inclusive Growth and Development Report 2017),     , ,           :              [15 -    2017a.].






 7.      

:    (2017)



     ,             .      ,              2:

            ,      .

 ,     ,       ,          .

         ,   ,      .

              .

         ,   .

  ,     ,        ,   ,    , ,   .

            ,     ,       .



     ,           . ,        ,    Amazon          .     ,  Amazon      [16 - New Atlas 2015.].     3   ,       ,        ,      .

      ,   ,    ,  ,        .   ,      ,               ,  .        .




 




         ,      (zoom-in, zoom-out).     :





  .


   .

   ,     (https://www.litres.ru/klaus-shvab/tehnologii-chetvertoy-promyshlennoy-revolucii/)  .

      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .



notes









1


  (Satya Nadella)   Microsoft,     ,     Microsoft        (Hit Refresh: The Quest to Rediscover Microsofts Soul and Imagine a Better Future for Everyone).




2


 ,    . . .










1


        .     (Nicholas Crafts),  1780  1801       9,7%  ,       5,6%    1801  1831 .     5,1%  4,6%  ( 1987).




2


  (Vaclav Smil)          ( 2005).




3


 (McCloskey) 2016.




4


     (UNDP)        ,              ,    .    ,            .         ,  ,     ,     .     ,         : ,      (UNDP 2017).




5


 (Gordon) 2016.




6


 (McCloskey) 2016.




7


       2016.




8


  2017.




9


The New York Times 2017.




10


     (OECD) 2016.




11


 (Berger)   (Frey) 2015.




12


 (Katz)   (Krueger) 2016.




13


   2017b.




14


The San Francisco Examiner 2017.




15


   2017a.




16


New Atlas 2015.


