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Copyright Azeem Azhar 2021

This edition published by arrangement with The Science Factory, Louisa Pritchard Associates and The Van Lear Agency LLC

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 ,       ,   . 69  ( 145   )      .           ,       (     )[15 - In other words, it was aTuring Machine so named after British mathematician Alan Turing, who devized much of the theory behind computer science. Turings tragic death in 1954 meant he never had access to a computer as generally capable as the ZX81, with its 1,024 bytes of memory storage capable of crunching through a superhuman half a million instructions per second.].   ZX81  .   .          - ,       .              Acorn Computers. Acorn BBC Master         .            -   1980- .

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  ,  1965  .  ,                 .      ,     (  18 24) ,    ,    [17 - G.E. Moore, Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits, Proceedings of the IEEE, 86(1), 1965, pp. 8285. https://doi.org/10.1109/JPROC.1998.658762 (https://doi.org/10.1109/JPROC.1998.658762).].     Intel,    XX. , ,      ,     .

    :      .  ,    ,  .         .  ,    ,   ,     [18 - Newtons laws work at the scale of the everyday and in what is known as inertial reference frames. At the very small the levels of atoms and smaller we need to rely on quantum physics to describe what is going on. Non-inertial reference frames, such as those found when studying cosmology, require different approaches.].   ,      ,          .

,    ,   .     ,          ⠖     .    젖 -   ,  ,      . ,  ,  ,  ⠖   ,    .   [19 - Cyrus C. M. Mody, The Long Arm of Moores Law: Microelectronics and American Science, Inside Technology (Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 2017), pp. 5and 125.].

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      ,           .  1958  Fairchild Semiconductor   IBM 100 150  [21 - Computer History Museum, 1958: Silicon Mesa Transistors Enter Commercial Production.]. ʠ1960-     8  . ʠ1972 (  )     15[22 - Ray Kurzweil, Average Transistor Price, Singularity.com (http://singularity.com/). http://www.singularity.com/charts/page59.html (http://www.singularity.com/charts/page59.html).],            . ʠ2014   250  (  )   䠖     ,      .          젖    [23 - Dan Hutcheson, Graphic: Transistor Production Has Reached Astronomical Scales, IEEE Spectrum, April 2, 2015. https://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/hardware/transistor-production-has-reached-astronomical-scales (https://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/hardware/transistor-production-has-reached-astronomical-scales).].         .

  ?          . ,      ,       .      ,    .  .      .

        , ,    ,      BBC Master     ZX81.   -       .       ,         .  -      頖  .    ,        - 1945.       264 ,       [24 - James W. Cortada, The Computer in the United States: From Laboratory to Market (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 1993), p.117; 95 percent of these were in the US. See also Early Popular Computers, 19501970, Engineering and Technology History Wiki. https://ethw.org/Early_Popular_Computers,_1950_-_1970 (https://ethw.org/Early_Popular_Computers%2c_1950_-_1970).].   ,        ⠖      ,   .   , ,    ,     ,     ,      .

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      ,     ,   ,   .        ,  S- .    . ,    ,   ,     ,      ,   ,   .  -         .  ,         :    ,    . ,      ,    .   ,      ,   .      ,     : ,        ,   ,     ,      .             .  ,       S.

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   S-   .        ,    S   .       ,         ,      XX.  1920     55     ,    .    ( ,  ), ,    , , -, : , , ,  , , [27 - In 1940, 65 percent of American homes had flush toilets. By 1960, it was 90 percent. Historical Census of Housing Tables Sewage Disposal. https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/dec/coh-sewage.html (https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/dec/coh-sewage.html).].      : ,     1946,   1970-   [28 - Paul R. Liegey, Microwave Oven Regression Model, U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. https://www.bls.gov/cpi/quality-adjustment/microwave-ovens.htm (https://www.bls.gov/cpi/quality-adjustment/microwave-ovens.htm).].

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  :   ,  Meta Platforms Inc.,      .]      .        2004         ,        .           :  2019    2,5 .

    Facebook


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,   ,  GPS- GSM-, ,     ,     ,    ,    ,       [30 - Alex Wilhelm, Charting Bird and Limes Rapid Growth, Crunchbase News, September 20, 2018. https://news.crunchbase.com/news/charting-bird-and-limes-rapid-growth/ (https://news.crunchbase.com/news/charting-bird-and-limes-rapid-growth/).].         :   ,   Lime     GSM-       [31 - Computers are so cheap, they turn up in surprising places. Disposable pregnancy tests have a small computer in them used once and thrown away.].

      . KakaoTalk    ,  WeChat  WhatsApp.   2016    .      ⠖  4%      .   2019    20% [32 - Charlotte Burgess, Future Banking: Creating an Incumbent Challenger, Finovate, 2020. https://finovate.com/future-banking-creating-an-incumbent-challenger/ (https://finovate.com/future-banking-creating-an-incumbent-challenger/).].          ,    .  TikTok,     .                 .       . ByteDance,   TikTok, 2018        ,            [33 - Authors analysis at Azeem Azhar, Big Ideas for 2021; Chinas Civil-Military Fusion; Teslas Infrastructure Advantage; the Climate Decade; Elephant Body Fat & Hegelian Enjoyment ++ #307, Exponential View. https://www.exponentialview.co/p/ev-307 (https://www.exponentialview.co/p/ev-307).]. :      Facebook


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      ,  ,   ࠖ   ,    :       ,   .    ,  ,     , 1971 2018    .       13%  䠖        [34 - David Rotman, Were Not Prepared for the End of Moores Law, MIT Technology Review, February 24, 2020. https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/24/905789/were-not-prepared-for-the-end-of-moores-law/ (https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/24/905789/were-not-prepared-for-the-end-of-moores-law/).].

   ,   2010-         .             ,       .     ,          ,        .  ,         ,           .      ,     ,         ,    .     -  ,   .

   ,     .       .  ,      ,    ,    .  ,       蠖    ,      .        .        ,    ,     .        ,     ,   . ,    :          ,      [35 - Ray Kurzweil, The Law of Accelerating Returns, Kurzweil.net, 2001. https://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns (https://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns).].

       -      .      .      ,    頖          .                ,   .

 S-     .    ,        .    ,   .  -     .   ,         .       .

,   ,     S-    .   S-    ,   .         ,              .   ,      :        .       ,          .  堖              [36 - Kurzweil also predicts asingularity where the capacities of computers exceed those of the human brain. This argument is not relevant to my argument, so Idont consider it here.].

       .  ,    ,   ,          .    -  ,      .                 .

     .     ,      ,        ,    .       ,         ().                  .

          .    ,         ,    ,     ,    [37 - Azeem Azhar, Beneficial Artificial Intelligence: My Conversation with Stuart Russell, Exponential View, August 22, 2019. https://www.exponentialview.co/p/-beneficial-artificial-intelligence (https://www.exponentialview.co/p/-beneficial-artificial-intelligence).].   ,           ,         .

   1955       ,        .          .   ⠖       , ,   ,     .         .      ,       , ,      .                . ,       ,           ,  ,   .          .            ,     . -              .           .

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       ,    .     ,                      ,         ,       ,    .        .       .              .  2020   GPT-3,     ,     ,  175 ⠖      ,  AlexNet.

     젖  ,     ? Ѡ2012 2018  ,      ,      ,  ,      .       ,     ,          .          ,           .         [38 - Dario Amodei and Danny Hernandez, AIand Compute, OpenAI, May 16, 2018. https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/ (https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/).].






.4.   ,  ,      

: Open AI,   Exponential View



 .      ,      .    ,        (     ), ,     ,   .

     .  ,    ,     ,        .         ,       .  ,    . ,       ,   .      ,    ,      ,       .

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 ,      , ,   .                   ,     䠖  [39 - Charles E. Leiserson etal., Theres Plenty of Room at the Top: What Will Drive Computer Performance after Moores Law? Science 368(6495), June 2020. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aam9744 (https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aam9744).]




  .


   .

   ,     (https://www.litres.ru/pages/biblio_book/?art=68460670)  .

      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .



notes








1


Stefan Thurner, Peter Klimek and Rudolf Hanel, Introduction to the Theory of Complex Systems (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2018), p.8. https://www.oxfordscholarship.com/view/10.1093/oso/9780198821939.001.0001/oso-9780198821939 (https://www.oxfordscholarship.com/view/10.1093/oso/9780198821939.001.0001/oso-9780198821939).




2


See also RicardV. Sol, Phase Transitions, Primers in Complex Systems (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2011).




3


See for example: Trouble with aTelephone, NewYork Times, September 25, 1898.




4


Hobbles and Dancing; Womens New Fashions Will Influence Length of Steps, NewYork Times, November 13, 1910; Judge rails at jazz and dance madness, NewYork Times, April 14, 1926.




5


Sol, Phase Transitions, pp. 211, pp. 132136, pp. 186187.




6


Eric Schmidt and Jared Cohen, The New Digital Age: Reshaping the Future of People, Nations and Business (NewYork: Alfred A. Knopf, 2013), p.55.




7


  (. Singularity University)  ,  , -   ,   ,  : ,     ,        . . .




8


Peter H. Diamandis and Steven Kotler, Abundance: The Future Is Better Than You Think (NewYork: Free Press, 2014), p.213.




9


See, for example, Chris Stokel-Walker, Politicians Still Dont Understand the Tech Companies Theyre Supposed to Keep in Check. Thats aProblem, Business Insider, October 10, 2020. https://www.businessinsider.com/tiktok-ban-hearings-politicians-senators-know-nothing-about-tech-2020-10 (https://www.businessinsider.com/tiktok-ban-hearings-politicians-senators-know-nothing-about-tech-2020-10).




10


   (19051980)  , ,    .  1959         .              ,    1960-        ,  . . .




11


Charles Percy Snow, The Two Cultures (Cambridge University Press, 2012).




12


  (18151852)  .      ,      .     . . .




13


-ࠖ  ,      ,     ,        .         ,     . . .




14


Sinclair ZX81  ,   Sinclair Research 1981.       ,      ,   50:              49,95         69,99,      . . .




15


In other words, it was aTuring Machine so named after British mathematician Alan Turing, who devized much of the theory behind computer science. Turings tragic death in 1954 meant he never had access to a computer as generally capable as the ZX81, with its 1,024 bytes of memory storage capable of crunching through a superhuman half a million instructions per second.




16


  (19121954)  , , ,      .            ,  -,          . . .




17


G.E. Moore, Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits, Proceedings of the IEEE, 86(1), 1965, pp. 8285. https://doi.org/10.1109/JPROC.1998.658762 (https://doi.org/10.1109/JPROC.1998.658762).




18


Newtons laws work at the scale of the everyday and in what is known as inertial reference frames. At the very small the levels of atoms and smaller we need to rely on quantum physics to describe what is going on. Non-inertial reference frames, such as those found when studying cosmology, require different approaches.




19


Cyrus C. M. Mody, The Long Arm of Moores Law: Microelectronics and American Science, Inside Technology (Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 2017), pp. 5and 125.




20


Our World inData   ,         ,   , ,  , , ,  , . . .




21


Computer History Museum, 1958: Silicon Mesa Transistors Enter Commercial Production.




22


Ray Kurzweil, Average Transistor Price, Singularity.com (http://singularity.com/). http://www.singularity.com/charts/page59.html (http://www.singularity.com/charts/page59.html).




23


Dan Hutcheson, Graphic: Transistor Production Has Reached Astronomical Scales, IEEE Spectrum, April 2, 2015. https://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/hardware/transistor-production-has-reached-astronomical-scales (https://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/hardware/transistor-production-has-reached-astronomical-scales).




24


James W. Cortada, The Computer in the United States: From Laboratory to Market (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 1993), p.117; 95 percent of these were in the US. See also Early Popular Computers, 19501970, Engineering and Technology History Wiki. https://ethw.org/Early_Popular_Computers,_1950_-_1970 (https://ethw.org/Early_Popular_Computers%2c_1950_-_1970).




25


 .  .  -     . .:  , 2019. . .




26


Horace Dediu, personal correspondence with the author, December 1, 2016.




27


In 1940, 65 percent of American homes had flush toilets. By 1960, it was 90 percent. Historical Census of Housing Tables Sewage Disposal. https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/dec/coh-sewage.html (https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/dec/coh-sewage.html).




28


Paul R. Liegey, Microwave Oven Regression Model, U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. https://www.bls.gov/cpi/quality-adjustment/microwave-ovens.htm (https://www.bls.gov/cpi/quality-adjustment/microwave-ovens.htm).




29





  :   ,  Meta Platforms Inc.,      .




30


Alex Wilhelm, Charting Bird and Limes Rapid Growth, Crunchbase News, September 20, 2018. https://news.crunchbase.com/news/charting-bird-and-limes-rapid-growth/ (https://news.crunchbase.com/news/charting-bird-and-limes-rapid-growth/).




31


Computers are so cheap, they turn up in surprising places. Disposable pregnancy tests have a small computer in them used once and thrown away.




32


Charlotte Burgess, Future Banking: Creating an Incumbent Challenger, Finovate, 2020. https://finovate.com/future-banking-creating-an-incumbent-challenger/ (https://finovate.com/future-banking-creating-an-incumbent-challenger/).




33


Authors analysis at Azeem Azhar, Big Ideas for 2021; Chinas Civil-Military Fusion; Teslas Infrastructure Advantage; the Climate Decade; Elephant Body Fat & Hegelian Enjoyment ++ #307, Exponential View. https://www.exponentialview.co/p/ev-307 (https://www.exponentialview.co/p/ev-307).




34


David Rotman, Were Not Prepared for the End of Moores Law, MIT Technology Review, February 24, 2020. https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/24/905789/were-not-prepared-for-the-end-of-moores-law/ (https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/24/905789/were-not-prepared-for-the-end-of-moores-law/).




35


Ray Kurzweil, The Law of Accelerating Returns, Kurzweil.net, 2001. https://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns (https://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns).




36


Kurzweil also predicts asingularity where the capacities of computers exceed those of the human brain. This argument is not relevant to my argument, so Idont consider it here.




37


Azeem Azhar, Beneficial Artificial Intelligence: My Conversation with Stuart Russell, Exponential View, August 22, 2019. https://www.exponentialview.co/p/-beneficial-artificial-intelligence (https://www.exponentialview.co/p/-beneficial-artificial-intelligence).




38


Dario Amodei and Danny Hernandez, AIand Compute, OpenAI, May 16, 2018. https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/ (https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/).




39


Charles E. Leiserson etal., Theres Plenty of Room at the Top: What Will Drive Computer Performance after Moores Law? Science 368(6495), June 2020. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aam9744 (https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aam9744).


