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  PDF A4   .





 

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Vaclav Smil

HOW THE WORLD REALLY WORKS

A Scientists Guide to Our Past, Present and Future



       - Penguin Books Ltd, .



 Vaclav Smil, 2022

  ..,    , 2022

    .    -, 2022








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       4  ,         ,          ,         .         3,5  ,         ,   :           ,    [1 -         3,7  2,5  . Cardona T. Thinking twice about the evolution of photosynthesis// Open Biology. 2019. 9/3.180246.].      ,            CO


     ,    [2 - Herrero A. and Flores E. (eds.). The Cyanobacteria: Molecular Biology, Genomics and Evolution. Wymondham: Caister Academic Press, 2008.].

  ,       ,            1,2        -  (-   ),      .       ,  -              .     ,   600        :  ,    .       (   ,      )    ,      , ,   ,     ,    [3 - Droser M.L. and Gehling J.G. The advent of animals: The view from the Ediacaran// Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2015. 112/16. P.48654870.].

      :  ,    ,        ,      ,       .        ,    ,    (541  ,  ),     , ,  ,    ( ,  ) .        , 6       -  ,    [4 - Bell G. The Evolution of Life. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2015.].               ,    ,     :               ,   4           ,       ,    [5 - Stanford C. Upright: The Evolutionary Key to Becoming Human. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2003.].

                    .        (   ,      Homo,      )   ,        .                   ,     ,               ,    [6 -    ,      ,      ,       800000: Goren-Inbar N. et al. Evidence of hominin control of fire at Gesher Benot Yaaqov, Israel. Science. 304/5671 (2004). P.725727.].            ,      ,        [7 -  ,          : Wrangham R. Catching Fire: How Cooking Made Us Human. N. Y.: Basic Books, 2009. ( .  :     . .: Corpus, 2012.)].                .

      :  .  10         ,       ;    ,     ()     , ,    [8 -            ,        : Zeder M. The origins of agriculture in the Near East// Current Anthropology. 52. Supplement 4 (2011). S221S235.].      .              ()   ()   .          9  ,                ,    ,  ,      [9 -      ,  , , , , , , , ,   ()  , ,   .      (, , )   ,   .].       :  5    ,  2     ,       [10 -     : Smil V. Energy and Civilization: A History. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2017. P.146163. ( .   / . . .. . .: , 2020.)].

      (),      :      ,        .    (      )           .        , ,             ,  ,   ,          (  ,   -  ),     .

                   .

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 ,  1600.,      .                  , ,                       .    ,          1620. (,  ); 1650.         ,  1700.    75%[11 - Warde P. Energy Consumption in England and Wales, 15602004. Naples: Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, 2007.].     :    ,     XIX.,     1640.[12 -       . : Nef J.U. The Rise of the British Coal Industry. L.: G. Routledge, 1932; Flinn M.W. et al. History of the British Coal Industry. 5vols. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 19841993.].  ,    XVIII.,       ,    ,       .

     ,         ,      [13 - Stuart R. Descriptive History of the Steam Engine. L.: Wittaker, Treacher and Arnot, 1829.].                 .  1800.                 .

 1800.       ,    -   98%    ,   ,          90%  ,    ,    .  ,    1770- .     ,  Boulton & Watt     25 ,  1800.    500 ,            [14 - Hills R.L. Power from Steam: A History of the Stationary Steam Engine. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 1989. P.70; Kanefsky J. and Robey J. Steam engines in 18th-century Britain: A quantitative assessment// Technology and Culture. 1980. 21. P.161186.].

 1850.           7%   ;          ,  40%       15%      :  ,        .  1850.        1700-   1600- .,    2000-.

 1900.    ,           (   -   )     ,        (,  , ).        1880- .;    ,       ,     (   ).   2020.           ,      .

 1900.         :     ,   ,          (  1830- .),       (  1880-),      (     1880- .)[15 -      ;         ,                .].

 1950.         (   ),                  80%  .  2000.           ;       12%     .          5%  ;        ,       .

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      ?       () ,       ,      .        (     ,       ),   (      ,        ,    ,    )     .      ,     ,   ,  XIX.     60, XX  16,    220  1500[16 -  :  0,5 1800.,    22 1900.   350 2000.,   525 2020.            .: Smil V. Energy Transitions: Global and National Perspectives. Santa Barbara, CA: Praeger, 2017.].

        ,    ,               .        1500-,    ,        [17 -         ,    : Smil. Energy and Civilization. P.297301.     .        (https://www.iea.org/sankey)   ;   .: https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/assets/images/energy/us/Energy_US_2019.png].  1800.                2530%,   2% ,   ,    ,        15%.     ,        20%,  2000.      50%. , XX.   40-   ,  1800.     3500.

      ,         .      1 1800.  1,6 1900.  6,1 2000.  ,    (       )  0,051800.  2,71900. 282000.      2000.        2020.  34  .           700   ,      XIX.

 ,    ,       (1950 2020.),        , 10 34  .      :           800 (0,8,   6)     1,5   .        :       60 .       ,       200 240,     .  ,       .

        ,  ,     .               ,          ,       ,  .       : ,        ,        100    ,     ,      1950- .,  ,   .   1950 2020.             ,       ( 150  );        (  80  ),      120 ( 50  )[18 -             (Energy Statistics Yearbook): https://unstats.un.org/unsd/energystats/pubs/yearbook/;    BP: https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statisticalreview-of-world-energy/downloads.html].

     ,           ,    ,        ,    .        .             ,         .

        .  1886.  ,    ,        ,   ,  Kampfobjekt ( )  ,           [19 - Boltzmann L. Der zweite Hauptsatz der mechanischen W?rmetheorie (,        29 1886.). . : Schuster P. Boltzmann and evolution: Some basic questions of biology seen with atomistic glasses// Gallavotti G. et al., eds. Boltzmanns Legacy. Zurich: European Mathematical Society, 2008. P.126.].  ,      1933.,    :     ,    ( ,  = )[20 - Schr?dinger E. What Is Life? Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1944. P.71.  .   ?/ . . . . .: , 2015.].  1920- .,       XIX   XX.         ,     ,     [21 - Lotka A.J. Natural selection as a physical principle// Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 1922. 8/6. P.151154.].

  1970- .     ,         ,    ,  [22 - Odum H.T. Environment, Power, and Society. N. Y.: Wiley Interscience, 1971. P.27.].                 :  ,     ,        ,     [23 - Ayres R. Gaps in mainstream economics: Energy, growth, and sustainability// Shmelev S., ed. Green Economy Reader: Lectures in Ecological Economics and Sustainability. Berlin: Springer, 2017. P.40. . : Ayres R. Energy, Complexity and Wealth Maximization. Cham: Springer, 2016.].  ,     -  ,        (      )[24 - Smil. Energy and Civilization. P.1.].

     ,  ,   ,     ,        ,    ,     .   ,             ;  ,      (),          ,                              ,     (  )   [25 - Ayres. Gaps in mainstream economics. P.4.].

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      XIX.      , ,   [28 - Smith C. The Science of Energy: A Cultural History of Energy Physics in Victorian Britain. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1998; Cardwell D.S.L. From Watt to Clausius: The Rise of Thermodynamics in the Early Industrial Age. L.: Heinemann Educational, 1971.].       :   .      ,         ,  ,        ,      ,   ,   [29 - Maxwell J.C. Theory of Heat. L.: Longmans, Green, and Company, 1872. P.101. ( ..  . ., 1888.)].               .

,     ?           XX.  ,            ,              :  ,  ,  ,  , ,  ,  ,  ,  .

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 ,     ,   .   ,       .  .        ,           .   ,       ,        [30 - Feynman R. The Feynman Lectures on Physics. Redwood City, CA: Addison-Wesley, 1988. Vol. 4. P.2. ( .    .    / . . . , . , . . .: AST Publishers, 2019.)].


   .              ,    ,     ,  ,     ,  ()                 ,   .

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   ,        :       ,       ,        ,       ,              ,    .          :   ,    ,      (  )[31 -   ,    ,     : Sherwin K. Introduction to Thermodynamics. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1993.].

          ;    ,      .   ,            ,      ,    .    ,     ,       .          ( / ),         :       ,          ,   ,  ,          .

     ,     ,      .                , ,   ,      ,    ,           [32 - Friedman N.U.S. Submarines Since 1945: An Illustrated Design History. Annapolis, MD: US Naval Institute, 2018.].           :      9095% ,            45%,     25%      (       12% )[33 -             . ,     5         120 ;       30, ,     25%.      2019.: 21%   , 35%   , 39%   94%   : Table 6.07. B. Capacity Factors for Utility Scale Generators Primarily Using Non-Fossil Fuels// https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_6_07_b.          : ,        ,  !].

     ,       .         ,     .      , , ,     .    ,     ;      ,  , , , .           (     ,    ). ,  ,  ,  ,           .      :   ,   ,  =/.   ,   : =?.        ,    15,       ( )   ( ),       40[34 -     50,     42/  2,1 (50?42000)  ,      15-    40 (    ).            :  2%       0,02%   .      .: https://www.candlewarehouse.ie/shopcontent.asp?type=burn-times;   .: https://web.archive.org/web/20120423123823/http://www.ccri.edu/physics/keefe/light.htm].

 ,        ,    1000 .      1000      ,     1000-  ( ,   ) 3,6     (1000000000?3600).         (,         )   80,  80  ;   70,    ,   7 (80?24?3600)  ,   1650,    ,   ,      [35 -    : Joint FAO/WHO/UNU Expert Consultation, Human Energy Requirements. Rome: FAO, 2001. P.37, http://www.fao.org/3/a-y5686e.pdf].

        ,                ,   ,   ,        .   ,     (,  ,  , )                 .       (   ):    16,   (   ) 2430,       46.      (      )   1,    26,   38.     ()    35/


  1/1000  [36 - Engineering Toolbox. Fossil and Alternative Fuels  Energy Content (2020), https://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/fossilfuels-energy-content-d_1298.html].

            .        ,        2,5  ,    ,     (     50% ),        .     ,          ,    ;            ,           .

       .    ,      (         ),  (    ,  -             75%      ,    )   (    ,       ),      ,     [37 - Smil V. Oil: A Beginners Guide. L.: Oneworld, 2017; Maugeri L. The Age of Oil: The Mythology, History, and Future of the Worlds Most Controversial Resource. Westport, CT: Praeger Publishers, 2006.].    ,        (    ,    ),            ,     ,    .

        ,         [38 - Mang T., ed. Encyclopedia of Lubricants and Lubrication. Berlin: Springer, 2014.].         (        1,4 ),    (    , ,   ),   .      120 ( :     ,    ,   200  ),       ,    , ,  ,     ,      ,  ,            .

  ,    , .        100    ; 85%     (    ),   [39 - Asphalt Institute. The Asphalt Handbook. Lexington, KY: Asphalt Institute, 2007.].          .           (   ,       ),    , ,  ,   ,            [40 - International Energy Agency. The Future of Petrochemicals. Paris: IEA, 2018.].      ,     ,                   .

         .      1850- . ,  . ,     ,       ,  ,           (     )[41 - Thuro C.M.V. Oil Lamps: The Kerosene Era in North America. N. Y.: Wallace-Homestead Book Company, 1983.].              :     (   )   ,   ,       ,          (,    )      ,      (    .  4,  ).       ,              .

                        , ,    .          1920- 1930- . (     1927.,    1937.),      ,     (  ) 1948.,  1951.  1957.   .          1948. ( -  )  1965. (  )[42 - Li G. World Atlas of Oil and Gas Basins. Chichester: Wiley-Blackwell, 2011; Howard R. The Oil Hunters: Exploration and Espionage in the Middle East. L.: Hambledon Continuum, 2008.].




       


                 ,        1950- .        (      ),           .  1950- .     ,  1964.        .   ,  ,   .    (   )     1950.  ,  1940-, 1960. ,  1950-,  1970. ,  1960-[43 - Aguilera R.F. and Radetzki M. The Price of Oil. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2015; Cordesman A.H. and Al-Rodhan K.R. The Global Oil Market: Risks and Uncertainties. Washington, DC: CSIS Press, 2006.].

,      . ,     ,       :          ,         ;        1933 1973.,           [44 -   1930- .       16   (15  100);          13,4   (17,7  100) 1973.        ,   (CAFE)    27,5   (8,55  100) 1985.,          2010.: Smil V. Transforming the Twentieth Century. N. Y.: Oxford University Press, 2006. P.203208.].                     ,    .

  1960.    ,    ,   25%,        50%.   1965 1973.      ,     2,3[45 -               (Energy Statistics Yearbook)     BP, Statistical Review of World Energy.].   ,       ,        ,   1950.        .  1950.     53%   ; 1970.     23%      ,  ,              ()  48%  .

    ,  1960.           : 1960- .    ,    ,  1970.      ,      (   1970.)      [46 - Ghanem S.M. OPEC: The Rise and Fall of an Exclusive Club. L.: Routledge, 2016; Smil V. Energy Food Environment. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1987. P.3760.].   1972.                  ,  1930- .  1971.       ; 1972.    ,     ,                   .    1973.            .       , 1 1973.      16%,  3,01  ,             1973.          17%       .

1 1974.        11,65  ,            4,5,       ,      . Ѡ1950 1973.    ,             .   1973 1975.        90%,   ,      ,             ,    (       )       , 13 1978.  32 1981.,   90-        1979 1982.[47 - Buchan J. Days of God: The Revolution in Iran and Its Consequences. N. Y.: Simon & Schuster, 2013; Maloney S. The Iranian Revolution at Forty. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2020.].

   30    ,  1986.     13  ,              ,            .     ,         (  ,   ),  ,        .      ,   , ,      ,    ,     ,           [48 -      (,  ),            (. .44),     ,       ,      .].

 1995.       1979.  ,        ,        ,     ,   1975.,    [49 -     1980.     British Petroleum, Statistical Review of World Energy.]




  .


   .

   ,     (https://www.litres.ru/vaclav-smil/kak-ustroen-mir-na-samom-dele-nashe-proshloe-nastoyaschee-i-bu/)  .

      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .



notes








1


        3,7  2,5  . Cardona T. Thinking twice about the evolution of photosynthesis// Open Biology. 2019. 9/3.180246.




2


Herrero A. and Flores E. (eds.). The Cyanobacteria: Molecular Biology, Genomics and Evolution. Wymondham: Caister Academic Press, 2008.




3


Droser M.L. and Gehling J.G. The advent of animals: The view from the Ediacaran// Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2015. 112/16. P.48654870.




4


Bell G. The Evolution of Life. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2015.




5


Stanford C. Upright: The Evolutionary Key to Becoming Human. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2003.




6


   ,      ,      ,       800000: Goren-Inbar N. et al. Evidence of hominin control of fire at Gesher Benot Yaaqov, Israel. Science. 304/5671 (2004). P.725727.




7


 ,          : Wrangham R. Catching Fire: How Cooking Made Us Human. N. Y.: Basic Books, 2009. ( .  :     . .: Corpus, 2012.)




8


           ,        : Zeder M. The origins of agriculture in the Near East// Current Anthropology. 52. Supplement 4 (2011). S221S235.




9


     ,  , , , , , , , ,   ()  , ,   .      (, , )   ,   .




10


    : Smil V. Energy and Civilization: A History. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2017. P.146163. ( .   / . . .. . .: , 2020.)




11


Warde P. Energy Consumption in England and Wales, 15602004. Naples: Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, 2007.




12


      . : Nef J.U. The Rise of the British Coal Industry. L.: G. Routledge, 1932; Flinn M.W. et al. History of the British Coal Industry. 5vols. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 19841993.




13


Stuart R. Descriptive History of the Steam Engine. L.: Wittaker, Treacher and Arnot, 1829.




14


Hills R.L. Power from Steam: A History of the Stationary Steam Engine. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 1989. P.70; Kanefsky J. and Robey J. Steam engines in 18th-century Britain: A quantitative assessment// Technology and Culture. 1980. 21. P.161186.




15


     ;         ,                .




16


 :  0,5 1800.,    22 1900.   350 2000.,   525 2020.            .: Smil V. Energy Transitions: Global and National Perspectives. Santa Barbara, CA: Praeger, 2017.




17


        ,    : Smil. Energy and Civilization. P.297301.     .        (https://www.iea.org/sankey)   ;   .: https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/assets/images/energy/us/Energy_US_2019.png




18


            (Energy Statistics Yearbook): https://unstats.un.org/unsd/energystats/pubs/yearbook/;    BP: https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statisticalreview-of-world-energy/downloads.html




19


Boltzmann L. Der zweite Hauptsatz der mechanischen W?rmetheorie (,        29 1886.). . : Schuster P. Boltzmann and evolution: Some basic questions of biology seen with atomistic glasses// Gallavotti G. et al., eds. Boltzmanns Legacy. Zurich: European Mathematical Society, 2008. P.126.




20


Schr?dinger E. What Is Life? Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1944. P.71.  .   ?/ . . . . .: , 2015.




21


Lotka A.J. Natural selection as a physical principle// Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 1922. 8/6. P.151154.




22


Odum H.T. Environment, Power, and Society. N. Y.: Wiley Interscience, 1971. P.27.




23


Ayres R. Gaps in mainstream economics: Energy, growth, and sustainability// Shmelev S., ed. Green Economy Reader: Lectures in Ecological Economics and Sustainability. Berlin: Springer, 2017. P.40. . : Ayres R. Energy, Complexity and Wealth Maximization. Cham: Springer, 2016.




24


Smil. Energy and Civilization. P.1.




25


Ayres. Gaps in mainstream economics. P.4.




26


     : Coopersmith J. Energy: The Subtle Concept. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2015.




27


Westfall R.S. Force in Newtons Physics: The Science of Dynamics in the Seventeenth Century. N. Y.: Elsevier, 1971.




28


Smith C. The Science of Energy: A Cultural History of Energy Physics in Victorian Britain. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1998; Cardwell D.S.L. From Watt to Clausius: The Rise of Thermodynamics in the Early Industrial Age. L.: Heinemann Educational, 1971.




29


Maxwell J.C. Theory of Heat. L.: Longmans, Green, and Company, 1872. P.101. ( ..  . ., 1888.)




30


Feynman R. The Feynman Lectures on Physics. Redwood City, CA: Addison-Wesley, 1988. Vol. 4. P.2. ( .    .    / . . . , . , . . .: AST Publishers, 2019.)




31


  ,    ,     : Sherwin K. Introduction to Thermodynamics. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1993.




32


Friedman N.U.S. Submarines Since 1945: An Illustrated Design History. Annapolis, MD: US Naval Institute, 2018.




33


            . ,     5         120 ;       30, ,     25%.      2019.: 21%   , 35%   , 39%   94%   : Table 6.07. B. Capacity Factors for Utility Scale Generators Primarily Using Non-Fossil Fuels// https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_6_07_b.          : ,        ,  !




34


    50,     42/  2,1 (50?42000)  ,      15-    40 (    ).            :  2%       0,02%   .      .: https://www.candlewarehouse.ie/shopcontent.asp?type=burn-times;   .: https://web.archive.org/web/20120423123823/http://www.ccri.edu/physics/keefe/light.htm




35


   : Joint FAO/WHO/UNU Expert Consultation, Human Energy Requirements. Rome: FAO, 2001. P.37, http://www.fao.org/3/a-y5686e.pdf




36


Engineering Toolbox. Fossil and Alternative Fuels  Energy Content (2020), https://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/fossilfuels-energy-content-d_1298.html




37


Smil V. Oil: A Beginners Guide. L.: Oneworld, 2017; Maugeri L. The Age of Oil: The Mythology, History, and Future of the Worlds Most Controversial Resource. Westport, CT: Praeger Publishers, 2006.




38


Mang T., ed. Encyclopedia of Lubricants and Lubrication. Berlin: Springer, 2014.




39


Asphalt Institute. The Asphalt Handbook. Lexington, KY: Asphalt Institute, 2007.




40


International Energy Agency. The Future of Petrochemicals. Paris: IEA, 2018.




41


Thuro C.M.V. Oil Lamps: The Kerosene Era in North America. N. Y.: Wallace-Homestead Book Company, 1983.




42


Li G. World Atlas of Oil and Gas Basins. Chichester: Wiley-Blackwell, 2011; Howard R. The Oil Hunters: Exploration and Espionage in the Middle East. L.: Hambledon Continuum, 2008.




43


Aguilera R.F. and Radetzki M. The Price of Oil. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2015; Cordesman A.H. and Al-Rodhan K.R. The Global Oil Market: Risks and Uncertainties. Washington, DC: CSIS Press, 2006.




44


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     (,  ),            (. .44),     ,       ,      .




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