 : ,   
 


       .            .      .     ,        ,    ,  ,     ,   ,   ,  XXI.

       ,                 .  ,  ,       ,       ,        ,                   .    ,   ,  -   ,  ,     ,    .                ,      .

  PDF A4   .





 

 . ,   


 ,        ,      ,     



Jeffrey D.Sachs

The Ages of Globalization

Geography, Technology, andInstitutions



Copyright  Jeffrey Sachs, 2020

   , 2022







     ,   .            : ,    ,    .  -            140 .  XIV             16(13311347).              .

    , ,  ,       ,     .        ,           ,   .    ,             ,  ,    ,     ,  .     ,    ,        .        ,   ,  ,   ,           ,          .

        ,              .          ,    ,  ,    .  ,                ,                .         ,              .

      ,  ,  ,  ,     ,       ,     ,           .              .      ,          ,     ,  ,   ,      , ,       .       ,               .

 ,    ,     .         ,  ,      .        ,  ,        .  ,   ,    ,  COVID-19,      ,  ,       XVI.                ,       .

                        XIV   XVI.   XIX            .        ,           .   ,             .     ,  ,  ,     .                ,             .

        -,    :       (),    .   COVID-19,     ,     ,        -  ,  ,   .  ,       ,    .  COVID-19,  ,      .           XX ,   ,   ,  , 1970-   1980- ,   .   1980-              /    -.             .

         ,      ,     .        ,      .  ,  ,     :  ,  ,  -,   ..           ,    ,    - ,     -     ,     .

 ,      ,         ,       .                ,   -             .            . ,  ,   ,         .

        .          ,     ,            .                      .

                   .      COVID-19                 .             (quaranta giorni -),         ,      .    XIV.  ,  ,                .

      :     ,          ().   .       ,       ,         .       ,             .        ,    (, , ,   ..),    ,    ,              .

         ,        .   XVIII ,  ,                     .             .   ,    1851   1938,      ,          .          1948    ()      ,       1945.             ,                 .

        .  -        ,                   .              ,      .                .           .

       ,      .              ,     ,   ,       ,   ,      ,   ,            .       ,       ,   ,          ,    .

              .        ,   ,     ,        .  ,      ,        (know-how).       ,            .      ,            . ,                      .




1

  



   ,        70  .        .         .  XXI      :             .   ,       ,    XXI     .

   ,             .              ,   .       ,   , , , ,  ,         ,      .    ࠫ 蠫    .    ,        . ,        ,             .

  ,           .  ,     ,    ,  XXI.   ,            .

, ,       :      ?                ?    ?     ,      .          .                          .                   .

     . -,         ? -,   ,   ? -,    -     ? -,       ? -,        ,        ?




 


            .    , , ,    .           , , , , ,   .

   ,     :



    ,      ;

 ,      (farming);

  (equestrian),              ;

 ,     ;

 ,                ;

 ,          , 

    ,        .



  ,       70 10  ..,        ,          .          ,      .    Homo sapiens (      )      ,      ,    (  Homo)    ,     ,    ,     , ,  ,     .        (patterns),    [1 -           . : Edward O.Wilson, TheSocial Conquest ofEarth (New York: Liveright, 2012);  ,  .     (-: , 2014).].

                (  ),      10 3  ..         ,   .       ,       .             ,         .      , ,          .

         ,     3000 1000 ..  ,       ,        ,   .             .     :      (  ),  ( )    .   ,  ,       , -    , ,   ,  .      ,           .

   ,    (    1000 .. 1500..),          .   1000 ..  ,    ,        ,    ,         ,  ,   .       .          ,      - ,         .       ,            ,     ,          .

 1400               ,    15001800.          ,  ,  ,               ,   .        ,     ,           ,      ,        .      ,      ,      .

 ,      1800 2000,       .  ,          ,    -  .               .        ,            .     ,       .        ,          ,     ,  .         ,    . ,     ,           .

 ,  2000,     ,        , ,     ,      .    :      ,         ,   .         ,       .            ,       .     ,         ,   Lehman Brothers,   -,  14 2008,               .

        ,         . 1.1.



 1.1

 :    










 


       ,      ,   .       ,     ,     .             ,  ( )    .     ,     ,       ,       .     ,   ,     (   )        .

      XX ,      ,      ,        .   1789      ,          .   1840-      .    XIX             [2 -        XIX  . : Mike Davis, Late Victorian Holocausts (London: Verso, 2001).].

                        . ,         ,       ,             .              .   ,    ,        .            1880    ,  ?            .    ,         ,      .

 ,       ,        .       ,                      ,  300 .  ,        ,     :   ,        .

    : -,    , -,  ,     ,    , , -,      .   HYDE3.1                    10  ..[3 - Kees Klein Goldewijk, Arthur Beusen, andPeter Janssen, Long-Term Dynamic Modeling ofGlobal Population andBuilt-up Area in aSpatially Explicit Way: HYDE3.1, Holocene 20, no. 4 (2010): 56573.]     ,      .           ,        .

      12    .1.1.    10 3  ..,      ,     2 45    ,      0,04%.    30001000 .. ( )     0,05%  .  1000 .. 1500,   ,     ,  0,06%  .  15001800 ( )     , 0,25%,        461 990 . , 18002000,   ,    0,92%,             990 6,145 .  ,                 ,          .

     .1.2.      ,  .        -        .     , I..,           ,       1%.    , 1000,     3%,  1900     16%.  XXI         2020    55%.                  ,                .






. 1.1.    (10  .. 2000.),  .

: Kees Klein Goldewijk, Arthur Beusen, and Peter Janssen. Long-Term Dynamic Modeling of Global Population and Built-up Area in a Spatially Explicit Way: Hyde 3.1, The Holocene 20, no. 4 (2010): 56573.

.     ????????????.






. 1.2.    (10  ..  ), %

: Kees Klein Goldewijk, Arthur Beusen, and Peter Janssen. Long-Term Dynamic Modeling of Global Population and Built-up Area in a Spatially Explicit Way: Hyde 3.1, The Holocene 20, no. 4 (2010): 56573.



          1 2008   .1.3.       ,       . 1500         :     0,01%.  15001820           0,05%. ,    ,   :  18202000     1,3%  .   180         11,                90% 1820   10% 2015[4 -       ,       (  ,  , , ,    ..).         .   ,           1,9       2011      ()  .                      .].






. 1.3.       (12008.)    1990.   -

: Angus Maddison. Statistics on World Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, 12008AD, Historical Statistics 3 (2010): 136.



      ,        ,    .    ,  1800    .  ,    ,          .       , , ,     ,        .




    


       ,             .            ,                ( , ,  , ,  ..)    .  ,           ,       ,        .

         1800  .        1 ,         , ,   . ,           ,    ,   ,      ,      .    1800       , ,  , 10    ,      2     .

 ,       ,     .          ,    ,           3050[5 -     .:Tobias Kordsmeyer, Pdraig Mac Carron, andR.I.M.Dunbar, Sizes ofPermanent Campsite Communities Reflect Constraints on Natural Human Communities, Current Anthropology 58, no. 2 (2017): 28994.].        22, 2 10  ..   45 3000 ..,     ,    .        45 3000 .. 115 1000 ..,          ,      .           ,    .          188 1 295 1000 390 1400.        ,     ,  , , ,   ,     .     ,        .

      ,      ,   ,      ,          .            (,       ,      ),         . ʠ1800      990 .          ,  , , , , ,   , , ,      .         ,     ?        ,  ,    ,  .         ,      ,     ,       ,    .

           ,     .       ,     .  ,         .          .  2020,     7,7 ,  7580  ,          17  (       ),            : , ,    .    ,         ,     ,      .        .

        ,       .              ,  ,      ,   .               ,      . ,          ,           1500      .       ,       ,  ,        ,  ,  .          ,          ,       ,    ,    .




 


 ,          ,        ,      .           .       , ,    ,  ,      XVIII   XIX.   ,                   .  ,               ,  -        .        .      ,        .

   . ,       .     ,      ,       .   ,        ,       ,         ?   ,      ,          .       ,     ,         ,           .

     , ,    ,     .  XIXXX       ,       ,    ,         ,     .      ,       ꠫.         ,    ,                 [6 -                     .].          .                 ,        ,   ,       .   ,         ,   ,       .

     -      :      .       8 ,         9,7 2050           ,   ,      ,      .          ,      ,      .  -      ,       ,     .   ,     ,      .




   


        ,        ,      ,        .                .          .

     ,      ,   .         ,   ,   ,   , ,    ,     ,  , , ,    . ,  ,        ,   , ,     .    ,     ( ,   ),   (, , )   ( ,    ).

          ,             ,      .   ,  ,   ,    ,             .        ( , ,       ),    (,       ,   ).

                ,   .      ,        ,  ,            .       ,     ,         , ,   .

               .                 ,    , ,   ,   .          .   .          ,      ,    .           .

         .   ,    ,      .        .       :    ,  ,  ,  .             .   ,    ,  90%     ,  10%   (, )   (,  ).            80%  ,   ,         .

    XVIII   ,           ,       .    .       ,   .      ,     ,      ,     .    ,   ,       .    ,      ,      ,   .          70,         1,4%  .

     ,   .1.4,         .               .     (     )   28%    ,        22%,   ()     50%  .     ,               .             .       2%      ,   (   )  13%,    85%   ![7 -      2018    : https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/employment-by-major-industry-sector.htm. ,               . -     99,9%.]  XXI           ,            ,   ,    .






. 1.4.            , %






 ,  


             ,   , , ,   .              .             ,    ,          (               ).

    XVIII     ,      ,         .           .               ,  ,             .           ,      .  ,       ,            .

    ,         ,   ?   ,     :       .       :               ,   .      :              .




  .


   .

   ,     (https://www.litres.ru/book/dzheffri-saks-1811959/epohi-globalizacii-geografiya-tehnologii-i-instituty-69241594/)  .

      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .



notes








1


          . : Edward O.Wilson, TheSocial Conquest ofEarth (New York: Liveright, 2012);  ,  .     (-: , 2014).




2


       XIX  . : Mike Davis, Late Victorian Holocausts (London: Verso, 2001).




3


Kees Klein Goldewijk, Arthur Beusen, andPeter Janssen, Long-Term Dynamic Modeling ofGlobal Population andBuilt-up Area in aSpatially Explicit Way: HYDE3.1, Holocene 20, no. 4 (2010): 56573.




4


      ,       (  ,  , , ,    ..).         .   ,           1,9       2011      ()  .                      .




5


    .:Tobias Kordsmeyer, Pdraig Mac Carron, andR.I.M.Dunbar, Sizes ofPermanent Campsite Communities Reflect Constraints on Natural Human Communities, Current Anthropology 58, no. 2 (2017): 28994.




6


                    .




7


     2018    : https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/employment-by-major-industry-sector.htm. ,               . -     99,9%.


