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Daniel Susskind

A World Without Work. Technology, Automation, and How We Should Respond



 Daniel Susskind, 2020

   , 2021


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    ,    .        ,      ,     ,      .    ,      .     .            .      ,      . ,     2020            .    18       [1 -   .: Rushe D. US economy suffers worst quarter since the second world war as GDP shrinks by 32.9% // The Guardian. 2020. 30 .       2020 , .,  ONS: StraussD. UK economy suffers worst slump in Europe in second quarter // The Financial Times. 2020. 12 .].

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       ,           ,       .           .           :     COVID-19   ,       .          20%    S&P 500,     ,     [5 - HendersonR. Big tech presents a problem for investors as well as Congress // The Financial Times. 2020. 1 .].   Apple  ,   ,    FTSE 100   ,  [6 - Apple more valuable than the entire FTSE 100 // BBC News. 2020. 2 .].

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         . ,       80%  9,6        ,     [9 - Francis-DevineB., PowellA., Foley N. Coronavirus: Impact on the labour market // House of Commons Library Briefing Paper. 2020. 8898. 12 .     2020     28,02  .].        .          ,      .  ,                 ,           .  ,    EY, ,     41%     [10 - Capital strategies being rewritten as C-Suite grapples with immediate impact of new reality // EY. 2020. 30 . URL: https://www.ey.com/en_gl/news/ ( : 29.09.2020).].

   , ,    ,    .          (   ?),  (   ?)  - (   ?).     :    ,  ,   ,   ,    .          , ,           ,   ,  ,   .  , , ,         ;          [11 - DanielE. Brits more positive about technology following Covid-19 pandemic // Verdict. 2020. 18 . URL: https://www.verdict.co.uk/covid-19-technology-vodafone/ ( : 29.09.2020); AliV. Survey results: Lockdown and changing attitudes towards tech // TechUK. 2020. 17 . URL: https://www.techuk.org/ ( : 29.09.2020).].          ,         ,      .        ,  ,      .

,  , .     80%          ;      7%[12 - LynchP., WainwrightD. Coronavirus: How GPs have stopped seeing most patients in person // BBC News. 2020. 11 .].  ,       ;   ,  ,      ,       -  , ,      .    .      ,     -   .      , ,             ,      . ,          -           ,     .


  

  , ,       ,    .      ,       :              [13 - 62%      ,        , .: BrenanM. U.S. Workers Discovering Affinity for Remote Work // Gallup. 2020. 3 . 3 April 2020;   61%    , .: Impact of COVID-19 on working lives: Findings from our April 2020 survey // CIPD. 2020. 2 . URL: https://www.cipd.co.uk/ ( : 29.09.2020).].        :  ,    ,  . ,   , : 71% ,   180    ,      ,      41% ,    24  .   ,  62%          ,    ,    ,   9%[14 - Khazan O. How the Coronavirus Could Create a New Working Class // The Atlantic. 2020. 15 . KochharR., PasselJ. Telework may save U.S. jobs in COVID-19 downturn, especially among college graduates // Pew Research Centre. 2020. 6 .].     (,  ,   )      .

               .    ,     . ,   ,          :       .   ,  .   ,    .       14%    34%    COVID-19;          ,           [15 -   .: BaileyS., WestM. Ethnic minority deaths and COVID-19: what are we to do? // The Kings Fund. 2020. 30 .  , 4.7x  2.1x , .: COVID-19 Hospitalization and Death by Race/Ethnicity // CDC. 2020. URL: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/.  18 .].        .   , ,     :   ,        20%           ,   ,     20%[16 - CajnerT., CraneL., DeckerR., GrigsbyJ., Hamins-PuertolasA., HurstE., KurzC., YildirmazA. The U.S. Labor Market During the Beginning of the Pandemic Recession // Becker Friedman Institute Working Paper No. 2020. . 20202058.].

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,  ,      ,       , , :          ,    [18 - .: AutorD., Reynolds E. The nature of work after the COVID crisis: Too few-low wage jobs // The Hamilton Project, Essay 202014. 2020. .     .].     ,               ,  .  ,        : ,     ; ,      ;     , ,    .   , ,           ,   .      ,      ,         ,  ,    .

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   1890-      [19 -    ,          .     , ,   (Groom B. The Wisdom of Horse Manure // Financial Times. 2013. 2 )    (DaviesS. The Great Horse-Manure Crisis of 1894. 2004. ). URL: https://admin.fee.org/files/docLib/547_32.pdf ( : 01.2019).].           -           , , ,      .         :        ,      [20 - Lay M. Ways of the World: A History of the Worlds Roads and of the Vehicles That Used Them. New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press, 1992. . 131.]. ,        :    ,       ,   .            -      ,         .        ,   ,    ,    [21 - Sanborn V. Victorian and Edwardian Horse Cabs by Trevor May, a Book Review // Jane Austen's World. 2009. 17 . URL: https://janeaustensworld.wordpress.com/tag/horse-drawn-cabs/ ( : 02.2019); KolbertE. Hosed: Is There a Quick Fix for the Climate? // New Yorker. 2009. 16 ; DaviesS. The Great Horse-Manure Crisis of 1894.].

        .                  [22 - LeeJ. When Horses Posed a Public Health Hazard // New York Times. 2008. 9 .].  -,   ,  -, ,  ,       ,    [23 -   0,405 . ..]    53 ,      [24 - SteinbergT. Down to Earth: Natures Role in American History. New York: Oxford University Press, 2002. . 162.].    ,     ,  :  -  ,        ,      ,    XX      [25 - 9 = 2,74 . ..]  [26 - KolbertE. Hosed: Is There a Quick Fix for the Climate?; DaviesS. The Great Horse-Manure Crisis of 1894. Morris E. From Horse Power to Horsepower //ACCESS Magazine. 2007. 30. .]. ,      .      ,      ,       ,      .   1880   -      [27 - LeeJ. When Horses Posed a Public Health Hazard.].

,   ,  ,  [28 - LevittS., DubnerS. Superfreakonomics. New York: HarperCollins, 2009.].         :     .   1872-                     ,     [29 - The Horse Plague // New York Times. 1872. 25 ; KherajS. The Great Epizootic of 187273: Networks of Animal Disease in North American Urban Environments // Environmental History. 2018. 3 (23).].        ,     :     ,      ,      ,       [30 - SteinbergT. Down to Earth: Natures Role in American History. . 162.].         ,  ,   ,    .  1870-       ,  1880-     ,               T.  1912   -    ,  .            [31 - The Future of Oil // The Economist. 2016. 26 .].    .

   ,        New Yorker,     [32 - , ,   . ., : WildR. We Were Buried in Fake News as Long Ago as 1894 // Sunday Times. 2018. 13 .].                       ,         ,  ,  .   , - ,   1973   ,       .   ,      ,   ,    ,               ,      .   ,    1980- ,            :          ,    ,     .  ,         ,       [33 - ., : LeontiefW. Technological Advance, Economic Growth, and the Distribution of Income // Population and Development Review. 1983. 3 (9). . 403410; Is Technological Unemployment Inevitable? // Challenge. 1979. 4 (22). . 4850; National Perspective: The Definition of Problems and Opportunities // The Long-term Impact of Technology on Employment and Unemployment: A National Academy of Engineering Symposium. 1983. 30 .].

     .       30%  ,            .       ,        [34 - GraetzG., Michaels G. Robots at Work // Review of Economics and Statistics. 2018. 5 (100). . 753768; SmithA., AndersonM. Automation in Everyday Life // Pew Research Center. 2017. 4 . URL: http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/10/04/automation-in-everyday-life/ ( : 08.2018).].       ,             ,     ,     .    XXI    ?       .      ,     ,  ,      .    ,         , ,  , ,      .

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    ,     .                  -,       -, 10[36 -   - . ..].    ,    ,          ,    -   .          ,      ,  ,     ,   .           .     ,      ,          [37 - BloomN., JonesC. Van ReenanJ., WebbM. Ideas Arent Running Out, But They Are Getting More Expensive to Find // Voxeu.org. 2017. 20 .].       . ,        ,    ,    .    .

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       ,       .    :     , ,   ,       .       (    ),      ,          .                  ,            .      .      .  ,    1800           ,   100000    [40 -        ,    ,    // ClarkG. A Farewell to Alms. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007. . 1.].

            .        .      , ..    ,    10720    (   80,7  ,   7,53 )[41 -    80,7      ,   2017  80,738     ,    : URL: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD. 7,53        2017 ,     : URL: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?page=2.      ,         . .: StiglitzJ. Towards a General Theory of Consumerism: Reflections on Keyness Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren / eds. L.Pecchi, G.Piga. Revisiting Keynes: Economics Possibilities for Our Grandchildren. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2008.].       2%  ,        .          1%,        ,   .             ,    .       ,     ,       [42 - GalbraithJ.K. The Affluent Society. London: Penguin Books, 1999. . 4.].

  ,        .  XXI          ,    ,       : ,     .    ,   ,    ,                 .          ,    :    ,   ,              .        ,  ,       ,     .

  ,           ,       [43 - CurtisC. Machines vs. Workers // New York Times. 1983. 8 .].       .          ,    .        ,   .       ,  ,         ,  :     ,         [44 - .   : PopperK. The Open Society and Its Enemies, vol. 1: The Age of Plato. London: Routledge, 1945.].    ,         ,     .  XXI        ,  ,   .   ,    .         , ,   ,    .     ,   ,                ,     .         .




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 ,       ,       ,          XVIII[48 -            ,       ; ,   , ,          ,       . .: SachsJ. Government, Geography, and Growth // Foreign Affairs. 2012. /.  : AcemogluD., RobinsonJ. Response to Jeffrey Sachs // Whynationsfail.com. 2012. 21 . URL: http://whynationsfail.com/blog/2012/11/21/response-to-jeffrey-sachs.html.].      :     ,  ,         .  , ,    :         -    , ,       (,        ).        :         ,       ,        .






 1.1.      



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  ,     ,   .    ,  ,    .  ,       ,     ,        ,     .       ,   -        . (  XIX        [52 - HobsbawmE. Industry and Empire. London: Penguin, 1999. . 112.].) ,    ,     ,      .        ,        [53 -     : Allen R. The Industrial Revolution in Miniature: The Spinning Jenny in Britain, France, and India // Oxford University Working Paper. 2007. 375.].

  ,       ,  ,     XVIII   . -,       ,    ,                [54 - Athenaeum. 1963. 1864. 18 . . 75.].         XIX   [55 - .: KayJ. What the Other John Kay Taught Uber About Innovation // Financial Times. 2016. 26 . KayJ. Weaving the Fine Fabric of Success // Johnkay.com. 2003. 2 .       , ,    ,       ,   ,     .].

   .         .  ,            ,          . ,     ,  ,   ,   .  1812             ...    ,  ,        .                  ,   1817-    [56 - . http://statutes.org.uk/site/the-statutes/nineteenth-century/181252-geo-3-c-16-the-frame-breaking-act/, http://statutes.org.uk/site/the-statutes/nineteenth-century/181354-geo-3-cap-42-the-frame-breaking-act/.].   -   ,       .

         . ,       ,   ,    ,  .       XVI.       ,   ,       .  1589           I     .  ,  ,   , :    ,  .  ,         . , ,   ,     [57 - ., .    ,   . .:  , 2016. . 235. ,      ,       ;     , ,       ,     ,     . . GarberM. Vested Interests: Cross-Dressing and Cultural Anxiety. New York: Routledge, 2012. . 393, n. 6.].      ,         1586-.   ,              ,           ,    [58 - AlbersA. On Weaving. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2017. . 15; BroudyE. The Book of Looms. Hanover, NH: University Press of New England, 1979. . 146.      .  ,       ,  .        : SeligmanB. Most Notorious Victory: Man in an Age of Automation. New York: Free Press, 1966.].

      .          .   ,       1930 .   ,   - ,         .  1817-           .   ,    ,     ,  ,        ,      .   , ,       ,     ,  .     ,     ,         ,        [59 -     1817 ,  (  )  1821 . .  .      . Litres, 2018.].

  ,  ,    XX .        ,      .    1940        ,   New York Times     [60 - Automation and Anxiety // The Economist. 2016. 25 ; StarkL. Does Machine Displace Men in the Long Run? // New York Times. 1940. 25 .].  ,     .  2016-               .          .      , ,         [61 -     . : MillerC.C. A Darker Theme in Obamas Farewell: Automation Can Divide Us // New York Times. 2017. 12 .                -,  , 7  1960 ; .: https://www.jfklibrary.org/.].  2016    ,      ,  ,          [62 - HawkingS. This Is the Most Dangerous Time for Our Planet // Guardian. 2016. 1 .].      1931     , ,    ,      ,    [63 - .: World Ills Laid to Machine by Einstein in Berlin Speech // New York Times. 1931. 22 ; ReichinsteinD. Albert Einstein: A Picture of His Life and His Conception of the World. Prague: Stella Publishing House, 1934. . 96.     ,       .].   ,   1920-,        New York Times,           [64 - : March of the Machine Makes Idle Hands. 1928. 26 ; Technological Unemployment. 1930. 12 ; Does Man Displace Men in the Long Run? 1940. 25 ; Revolution Is Seen in Thinking Machines. 1950. 17 ; Newer and Newer and Newer Technology, with Little Unemployment. 1979. 6 ; A Robot Is After Your Job. 1980. 3 ; If Productivitys Rising, Why Are Jobs Paying Less? 1993. 19 ; A Miracle, But Maybe Not Always a Blessing. 2001. 25 .].


  

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  ,    .      ,      -,  ,      .  ,    ,         . , ,   - ,     ,        .             .    ,       ,     1.2[65 -    A49  A50,  3.1 : ThomasR., DimsdaleN. A Millennium of UK Data / Bank of England OBRA dataset. 2017. URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Pages/one-bank/threecenturies.aspx.            1760  1855        1855  1900 .  1855      ,    .].         ,   ,       ,    .   ,     . ,   1760  1820          4%.      ,  ,   ,    [66 - TombsR. The English and Their History. London: Penguin Books, 2015. . 377338.].     :   ,           [67 -  . . 378.].






 1.2.      1760  1900 



      ,   ,     . ,   ,   ,        , ,    XX.     ,        ,   - ,   .     , , ,    ,           [68 - CowenT. Industrial Revolution Comparisons Arent Comforting // Bloomberg View. 2017. 16 .].

  ,  ,      ,       . ,   1930  ,                .      ,          ,        [69 - KeynesJ.M. Essays in Persuasion. New York: W.W.Norton, 1963. . 368369.].       .     ,     ,    .     ,        (),   ,     ,       .               (.  1.3[70 -        2019 .]).

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 1.3.          



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,   ,     ,   , ,   ,       .    ,             XVIII             .      ,   ,      .      [73 - : AcemogluD., RestrepoP. Artificial Intelligence, Automation and Work // Economics of Artificial Intelligence / eds. A.Agrawal, J.Gans, A.Goldfarb. Chicago: Chicago University Press, 2018.].

     .           ,        ,         .    ,  ,     .   .  2016        ()  ,              92,5%.  ,      96,6% , ,    ,  ,     99,5%    .         [74 - WangD., KhoslaA., GargeyaR., et al. Deep Learning for Identifying Metastatic Breast Cancer. 2016. URL: https://arxiv.org, arXiv: 1606.05718.].

        ,     ,            . ,            ,       ,      [75 - GrossmanM., CormackG. Technology-Assisted Review in e-Discovery Can Be More Effective and More Efficient than Exhaustive Manual Review // Richmond Journal of Law and Technology. 2011. 3 (17).].           ,               .

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  ,       ,   :       ,       .    ,       . ,    1700  2000    113 .        ,           :          171 ,    1699 ,    2300 ,    8132 ,      15241 [76 -   : MaddisonA. Historical Statistics of the World Economy.         1700 :    ,      .      .          .].

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 ,        , ,       .  1970- ,     ,       .   ,        ,        ,   ,    ,   ,  ,  [77 - SummersL. The 2013 Martin Feldstein Lecture: Economic Possibilities for Our Children // NBER Reporter. 2013. 4.].  , ,         ,    , ,             ,    ,    [78 - AutorD. The Limits of the Digital Revolution: Why Our Washing Machines Wont Go to the Moon // Social Europe. 2015. URL: https://www.socialeurope.eu/.].   ,     ,  ,          .       .   ,     - [79 - . : HardenB. Recession Technology Threaten Workers // Washington Post. 1982. 26 .].


  

         .       ,   :            .       ,       ,   . ,  ,  .    ,          ,     .        ,    .          ,      ,    [80 - BroadberryS., CampbellB., KleinA., et al. British Economic Growth, 12701870. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2015. . 194,  5.01.].

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      ,    .   ,                 .         :   1900         .        ,          [81 -    1900   : AutorD. Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation // Journal of Economics Perspectives. 2015. 3 (29). . 330;  2016     1,5%,      . URL: https://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_201.htm.].     ?   .        :  1970         .         ,          [82 -    26,4%,      - (URL: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USAPEFANA),      9%,    : Top 20 Facts About Manufacturing. URL: http://www.nam.org/Newsroom/Top-20-Facts-About-Manufacturing/.].       ? :    ,     80% [83 - US Bureau of Labor Statistics. URL: https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/employment-by-major-industry-sector.htm ( : 08.2019).].           .        ,        [84 - ., : AcemogluD. Advanced Economic Growth: Lecture 19: Structural Change / MIT. 2017. 12 .].  1962       82%  ;       31%       ,  ,    [85 - FelipeJ., Bayudan-DacuycuyC., LanzafameM. The Declining Share of Agricultural Employment in China: How Fast? // Structural Change and Economic Dynamics. 2016. 37. . 127137.].

    ,        ,       ,     ,        .     ,  ,       ,     .  -      . ,  1900        .    ,              ,          [86 -        19001909    810 : ClarkG. The Agricultural Revolution and the Industrial Revolution: England, 15001912.  . University of California, Davis, 2002.      2017    1,2 ; .: https://digital.nhs.uk/.].            ,  ,          ,     ,              .          :  ,    ,    ,        ,       [87 -     : . AutorD. Polanyis Paradox and the Shape of Employment Growth // Re-Evaluating Labor Market Dynamics: A Symposium Sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansa City. Jackson Hole, Wyoming. 2014 (2015). 2123 . . 162.].


 

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notes








1


  .: Rushe D. US economy suffers worst quarter since the second world war as GDP shrinks by 32.9% // The Guardian. 2020. 30 .       2020 , .,  ONS: StraussD. UK economy suffers worst slump in Europe in second quarter // The Financial Times. 2020. 12 .




2


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