 . 800        
 


         .    ,   , ,  .        10- .      ,     .       ,         ,   ,        .         (   ),        (     ),     .     , ,  .     .





 

 . 800        



       10- .      ,     . 

9.   .   ,       .

Virtually total recall, unending fascination with new knowledge, and an ability to recast it in a form applicable to seemingly unrelated problems made exposure to his thinking in any field a delight.

  ,          ,     ,       .

           .      ,        .

8.      . :     ,            . : "              ".       :               .   ,      :            .

8.  "     ". :       ,     .

        ;     ,       .

      :             ,        .

  ,      :      ,     ,        ,     .

9.  "  ". :        ,       . : "The future value of every investment is a function of its present price. The higher the price you pay, the lower your return will be." (         .   ,   ,     .) . "      ":         ,      . "        ":     ,           .

7. :   . :           . : "Bens mother turned their home into a boardinghouse; then, borrowing money to trade stocks on margin,  she was wiped out in the crash of 1907." (      ,  ,       ,       1907 .)       :             .   ,      :      ,           .

8.  "   ,     ". :  ,     ,     . , : "    ,  ,    ,       "- , -   - ". "      ":             . "        ":      ,                .

8.   .       . ",    ,   ".        ,       .     ,        .

8.       .

            .

  "The Intelligent Investor is the first book ever to describe, for individual investors, the emotional framework and analytical tools that are essential to financial success."

  "The Intelligent Investor   ,       ,    ,   ."

                     .

              ,            .

7.    .           . "The advent of the performance vogue in". "   "" ".      ,      ,        .      ,            .

9.         .

:               ,            .          .

: "To invest successfully over a lifetime does not require a stratospheric IQ, unusual business insights, or inside information. Whats needed is a sound intellectual framework for making decisions and the ability to keep emotions from corroding that framework."

: "           ,  -   .               ."

      :            ,         .

  ,      :     ,         ,      .

8.  "  ". :        ,     . : "This record may be regarded as a persuasive argument for the principle of regular monthly purchases of strong common stocks through thick and thina program known as dollar-cost averaging." (                    ,   "  ").       :            .   ,      :              .

8.     .  : "Evidently it is not only the tyro who needs to be warned that while enthusiasm may be necessary for great accomplishments elsewhere, on Wall Street it almost invariably leads to disaster."  : ",        ,            ,  -      ."       :             .   ,      :     ,          .

7.        .  : "             ,      ,   -  ,      ".       :            .   ,      :        ,      ,     .

7.           .  : "The underlying principles of sound investment should not alter from decade to decade, but the application of these principles must be adapted to significant changes in the financial mechanisms and climate."  : "          ,               ."       :               .   ,      :     ,            -      .

8.         . .      ,        . , . "It has long been the prevalent view that the art of successful investment lies first in the choice of those industries that are most likely to grow in the future and then in identifying the most promising companies in these industries." "  ,     ,  ,    ,       ,          ." "      "           ,      . "        "     ,         .

8.       .

:              ,      .        .

: "We have consistently urged that at least 25% of the conservative investors portfolio be held in common stocks, and we have favored in general a 5050 division between the two media."

: "  ,          25% ,             ."

      :         ,      .

  ,      :                ,         .

8.   .

:     ,                ,      .

: "In our own stock-market experience and observation, extending over 50 years, we have not known a single person who has consistently or lastingly made money by thus following the market. We do not hesitate to declare that this approach is as fallacious as it is popular."

: "  50-           ,       ,   .    ,     ,    ."

      :                 ,    .

        :              ,         .

8. :             .  : "Obvious prospects for physical growth in a business do not translate into obvious profits for investors."  : "            ."       :               .   ,      :      ,    ,       ,    .

8.  .         ,       . "The ultimate result of such a conservative policy is likely to work out better than exciting adventures into the glamorous and dangerous fields of anticipated growth." "      "           ,       . "        "     ,          .

8.   .      ,       ,     . "A strong-minded approach to investment, firmly based on the margin-of-safety principle, can yield handsome rewards." "   ,     ,    ."    ,       ,      .      ,         .

8.   .    ,    ,         .       . "The virtues of a simple portfolio policy have been emphasizedthe purchase of high-grade bonds plus a diversified list of leading common stockswhich any investor can carry out with a little expert assistance." "      "    ,           . "        "     ,          .

8.   .

:      ,         .   ,   -       .

: "The habit of relating what is paid to what is being offered is an invaluable trait in investment."

: "  ,  ,  ,  ,     ."

      :            ,       .

  ,      :     ,           ,      .

8.      .     ,           .

Taking a foolish risk can put you so deep in the hole that its virtually impossible to get out.   ,       ,     .

          .      ,            .

8. :     ,     "" ,  -       . :      ,     ,       . : "The fault, dear investor, is not in our starsand not in our stocksbut in ourselves . . . ." (,  ,               ) : ",  ,               ".       :       ""        .         :      ,    ,    .

7.   .      . "Sir Isaac Newton      ,  - ,    . ,  ,      .       ,      ".    ,         .      ,         .

8.  " ". .     ,   ,    .         .

, . "This kind of intelligence, explains Graham, is a trait more of the character than of the brain.   "  ,  , "  ,  ".

      .     ,     .          .

        .     ,       ,         .

7.  .        . "     ,     .     ,    .        ?    - ".         ,    .      ,           .

8.   .

:          .

: "being an intelligent investor is more a matter of character than brain." (       "",  "".)

      :            ,   .

        :     ,         ,      .

8.  .

:           .

, : "the investors chief problemand even his worst enemyis likely to be himself." "  ,     ,  ,   ."

      :         ,       .

        :       ,      ,        .

8.    .         . "The pendulum has swung, as Graham knew it always does, from irrational exuberance to unjustifiable pessimism." "      "             ,        . "        "     ,       ,     ,      ,     .      .

7.    .

:    ,              .

, : "            ."

      :           ,         .

        :     ,    ,   ,     .

8.      .    , ,   ,       . ,    ,  . "     1929-1932           . (   ,        )".        ,        .      ,      ,      .

8. :      . :       ,      . : "And conversely (so long as you keep enough cash on hand to meet your spending needs), you should welcome a bear market, since it puts stocks back on sale." (  ( ,           ),     ,        ).       :         ,    .         :     ,          .

7.      .  : "We have already defined the defensive investor as one interested chiefly in safety plus freedom from bother." (      ,          ).       :         .   ,      :        .

7.    . .     ,     . , . " ,         ,        ,               ".       : ,             .   ,      :    ,   ,   .

8.  "  ".             .         ,     .  : "       ,   .      ,           ".       :    ,      .   ,      :      -  .

7.    .       ,       . "        ,       ".          ,      .      ,         .

6.    .               . "      ,     ,      ".            ,    .      ,       .

8.       .     ,        . "         ,       ".            ,     .      ,         .

9.       .         ,     . "           ".                 .      ,           .

7.     .            . "            ".              .      ,       ,      .

5.     .             . "           ".             .      ,          .

6.     .              . "   ,        ".                .      ,        .

7.      .             . "          ".            .      ,         .

7.  "    ". :    ,      ,       .        ,         . : "The newspaper employed the word investor in these instances because, in the easy language of Wall Street, everyone who buys or sells a security has become an investor, regardless of what he buys, or for what purpose, or at what price, or whether for cash or on margin." (   ""  ,  ,    -, ,      ,  ,   ,   ,   ,        ).       :             ,     .   ,      :      ,         -  .

8.       . :       ,       . : "We recommended that the investor divide his holdings between high-grade bonds and leading common stocks". : "           ".       :         .         :     ,         .

8.       .      . "The future of security prices is never predictable." "      "   ,                . "        "             ,        .

7.   .

:      ,         ,      .

: "The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing." (  ,    ,     .)

      :          ,      .

        :     ,       ,      .

8.      .

:    ,           .           ,            .

: "          ,     .   ,  -               ."

: "          ,     .   ,  -               ."

      :           ,         .

  ,      :     ,       -  ,       .

8. :  .

:         ,        .

: "if he had confined his bond-type investments to U.S. savings bonds, short-term corporate issues, or savings accounts, he would have had no loss in market value of his principal during this period and he would have enjoyed a higher income return than was offered by good stocks."

: "        ,         ,                  ,    ."

      :          .

  ,      :               ,      ,       .

7.      . :         ,       . : "Hence, after this foreshortened discussion of the major considerations, we once again enunciate the same basic compromise policy." ( ,              .)       :              .   ,      :            ,           .

8.   .

:    ,     ,      .   ,           ,     .

Consequently we are forced to the conclusion that now, toward the end of 1971, bond investment appears clearly preferable to stock investment. ",     ,    ,   1971 ,        ."

      :     ,      .

  ,      :     ,          .

8.   .

:  ,     ,      .

, : "  ,          ,   ."

      :           ,    .

        :     ,          .

7.  "     ". :     ,       . : "Hence the greater part of the impressive market record for that period was based on a change in investors and speculators attitudes rather than in underlying corporate values." (                ,       ).       :        ,        .         :            .

7.     .               .

 : "Let us assume that now, as in the past, the basic policy decision to be made is how to divide the fund between high-grade bonds(or other so-called cash equivalents) and leading DJIA-typestocks. What course should the investor follow under present conditions, if we have no strong reason to predict either a significant upward or a significant downward movement for some time in the future?"

 : ",  ,    ,  ,   ,        (    " ")     DJIA.        ,               ?"

      :               ,      .

  ,      :              ,          .

8.   .

:        ,          .

: "The defensive investor must confine himself to the shares of important companies with a long record of profitable operations and in strong financial condition."

: "                ."

      :             .

        :     ,               .

7.  "  ". :      ,        ,       . : "This will give him professional administration of his investment program along standard lines." (          ).       :        ,      .   ,      :     ,             .

7.   .

:     -     .

Thus it seems that any intelligent person, with a good head for figures, should have a veritable picnic on Wall Street, battening off other peoples foolishness. " , ,    ,    ,      -,    ."

      :            .

  ,      :            .

8.   .   ,               .      50-50      ,    ,    25%   75%    .            .         ,       .         7,8%     5,5%  .   ,  ,          .  ,  

7.    .  ,          ,    ,   TIPS. TIPS        ,       .    ,     - .

6.       .  ,           ,    .          .             ,      ,     .

8.         .         ,    ,     ,     -. " ,          ,             ".    ,         ,        ,     .      ,           ,   ,   .

8.    .

:    ,       .    ,     ,   ,       .

: "             ,           ,     ."

      :     ,       ,   ,      .

        :     ,    ,      ,   .

8.  .

:     ,                .

: "Alas, after 1949 this formula no longer worked." ( ,  1949     .)

: " ,  1949     ."

      :    ,          ,    .

  ,      :      ,           .

7.  .

:     ,           ,         .

: "No proprietor or majority holder would think of selling what he owned at so ridiculously low a figure."

: "          ,   ,    ."

      :            ,        .

  ,      :     ,       ,         .

8.  "  ". :           .          . , : ", -,    -         ,       ?  ,   ,       ,    .   ,           - ".       :          ,    ,     .         :           ,         .

7.   .  :   ,  -      . "Wall Street  -      ".    ,        ,            .      ,        .

7.      .              .   "Im going to make it right now." (     ). "      "            . "        "      ,         .

7.  "  ".      ,       ,     ,      . ,   ,   ,      . ,  ,    ,  ,  ,     .    ,      ,    ,         ,      .     ,           .

7.    .    ,    ,          . "Its as if mutual-fund managers were studying their stocks just long enough to learn they shouldnt have bought them in the first place, then promptly dumping them and starting all over." ",          ,  ,      ,          ".      ,                .      ,     ,       .

8.  " ". :     ,     ,       . , : "The intelligent investor has no interest in being temporarily right. To reach your long-term financial goals, you must be sustainably and reliably right." "      .     ,       ."       :               ,   .         :            ,          .

7.    . "  ,    ". "       .  9". "      ,    ". "     ,      ,      ".

6.   . " "  "   "    10. "        ". "     ,         ".

5.    . "  "    5. "     ,   ". "     ,          ".

4.    . "  "    ,   ,      . "    ,    ,   ". "     ,             ,      ".

3.   . " "    ,             . "         ". "     ,        ,      ".

2.   . " "        . "         ". "     ,         ,      ".

8.    .  : "The intelligent investor never dumps a stock purely because its share price has fallen; she always asks first whether the value of the companys underlying businesses has changed."  : "       ,    ;   ,      ."       :      ,        .   ,      :     ,      -   ,     ,        .

7.     .  : "Oscar Wilde joked that a cynic knows the price of everything, and the value of nothing. Under that definition, the stock market is always cynical, but by the late 1990s it would have shocked Oscar himself."  : "  ,   "  ,     ".   ,    ,    1990-         ."       :        ,      .   ,      :     ,       .

7. :         . :            ,      . : "This is quick! This is easy! And it wont hurt a bit!" ( !  !     !).       :                 .         :      ,         .

7.   .        ,   . "One year later, sort the Dow the same way and reset the portfolio according to steps 1 through 4." "   Dow           1-4."      ,        ,        .      ,      ,       .

7.  "    ".

:        ,       ,    ,   .       -,     ,     .    ,         .               . ,      ,    ,             .

: "In selling short (or shorting) a stock, you make a bet that its share price will go down, not up. Shorting is a three-step process: First, you borrow shares from someone who owns them; then you immediately sell the borrowed shares; finally, you replace them with shares you buy later. If the stock drops, you will be able to buy your replacement shares at a lower price. The difference between the price at which you sold your borrowed shares and the price you paid for the replacement shares is your gross profit (reduced by dividend or interest charges, along with brokerage costs). However, if the stock goes up in price instead of down, your potential loss is unlimitedmaking short sales unacceptably speculative for most individual investors."

: "          ,    ,   .          :      -,      , , ,   ,    .    ,         .                (     ,     ). ,      ,    ,             ."

      :                 .             .

  ,      :     ,                  .

7.  "   ". :     ,   ,        . : " ,        ,     ".       :    ,      ,     ,       .         :      ,    ,        .

7.   .          .  ,     ,      ,     ,   1,5   .

 : "?     50     ,        ,   1,5   ."

      :             .

  ,      :     ,           .

7.  "  ,  ". .       ,    ,      ,       .

, . "Just do what works. In 1996, an obscure money manager named James OShaughnessy published a book called What Works on Wall Street. In it, he argued that investors can do much better by following simple, time-tested strategies that have consistently outperformed the market." "  ,  .  1996        '     "   -".    ,  "     ,  ,   ,    ."

      .    ,     ,      ,       .

        .      ,          ,     .

7.   .

:      ,          ,         .

, : "Stocks do well or poorly in the future because the businesses behind them do well or poorlynothing more, and nothing less." "        - ,       ,         ."

      :            ,         .

        :     ,        ,      ,      .

8. :  .

:     .      ,         .     ,     .

, : "     , ,   ,   .       ,       ."

      :        ,  ,       ,          .

        :     ,        ,      .

8. :      . :    ,        . : "The first thing we notice is that we have had inflation in the pastlots of it." (,   ,  ,          ).       :   ,           .         :     ,            ,      .

7.  .      . "   ,        ".          .      ,        .

8.   .           .

 : "On the basis of these undeniable facts many financial authorities have concluded that (1) bonds are an inherently undesirable form of investment, and (2) consequently, common stocks are by their very nature more desirable investments than bonds."

 : "          ,  (1)        ,  (2) ,         ,  ."

      :          ,         .

  ,      :               ,      ,      .

7. :      . :       . : "Common stocks have indeed done better than bonds over a long period of time in the past." : "    ,        ."       :            .         :         ,     .

8.  "  ".

:       ,        .

Never mingle the money in your speculative account with whats in your investment accounts; never allow your speculative thinking to spill over into your investing activities; and never put more than 10% of your assets into your mad money account, no matter what happens. "         ,      ;           ;     10%      ,    ."

      :                .

        :     ,        -  .

7.      .

:  ,         ,   ,   .

 ,               (  )   , , 3%  .

      :     ,            .

        :     ,       ,    ,       .

7.   .     ,   ,       . " ,      ,     ".     ,        .      ,            .

7.    .    ,       . "  ".              .      ,           .

7.   .       ,      . "Our figures in Table 2-2 indicate that so far from inflation having benefited our corporations and their shareholders, its effect has been quite the opposite." "      "   ,          . "        "     ,   ,       ,     ,      .

7. :     . :    ,         .  : "The only way that inflation can add to common stock values is by raising the rate of earnings on capital investment. On the basis of the past record this has not been the case." ( ,      ,     .       ).       :   ,               .   ,      :     ,              .

9.       .         . "         ,     ".               .     ,    ,    .

8.     .     . "       ".       ,   .     ,       .

7.   .   "",    . "    "",    ".      ""    .     ,          .

9.    .          . "           ".                .     ,        .

8.    .          . "        ".       ,         .     ,     -  .

7.   .       ,    . "    ,    ".             .     ,          .

8.       .        . "       ".          .     ,       .

7.      .  ,   . "       ,         ".     ,       ,   ,     .     ,     ,      .

6.    .      . "      ".               .     ,               .

7.  .

:     ,        ,        .

: "Our extended studies have led to the conclusion that the investor cannot count on much above the recent five-year rate earned on the DJIA groupabout 10% on net tangible assets (book value) behind the shares."

: "     ,         ,    ,    DJIA   10%     ( )  ."

      :                .

        :     ,             .

7.      . .        . , . "       .      ( )         .      1966-1970 .     22%,       1946  1950 .   ,          1965 .           ". "      ", "        ",    ,      ,    .      ,      ,           .

7. :         . :         ,               ,           ,         .  : "That way lies sorrow." (    .)       :                 .         :    ,     ,         .

7.    .        . "No one who lived through it would scoff at such destruction of wealth; no one who is prudent can fail to protect against the risk that it might recur." ",   ,       ; ,  ,        ".              .      ,        .

8.   .

:          ,     ,   .

: "Just because of the uncertainties of the future the investor cannot afford to put all his funds into one basketneither in the bond basket, despite the unprecedentedly high returns that bonds have recently offered; nor in the stock basket, despite the prospect of continuing inflation."

: "-                  ,     ,    ,   ,     ."

      :      ,       .

  ,      :             ,      ,    .

7.     .        ,      . " ,       ,  ,        .       ,   ,        (, 2%     )  ,      ,     .     ,          100%".    ,                .      ,                  .

7.   .    ,        . "Fortunately, you can bolster your defenses against inflation by branching out beyond stocks." "   ,             ." "     ,     -        ."

7.    .

:    ,     .

, : "The standard answer is buy stocksbut, as common answers so often are, it is not entirely true." "    , ,      ,    ."

      :    ,              .

        :     ,       - .

8. :       ,       . :       ,        .  : "Thats why inflation is so easy to overlookand why its so important to measure your investing success not just by what you make, but by how much you keep after inflation."  : "                    ,   ,    ,      ."       :                .   ,      :     ,             .

8.    .

:       .         ,    .

: "It must be evident to the reader that we have no enthusiasm for common stocks at these levels (892 for the DJIA). For reasons already given we feel that the defensive investor cannot afford to be without an appreciable proportion of common stocks in his portfolio, even if we regard them as the lesser of two evilsthe greater being the risks in an all-bond holding." ( )

: "    ,          (892  DJIA).      ,                ,                  ."

      :         .

  ,      :     ,            .

7.    .     ,   ,      . "                ".             .      ,       - .

8.  " ". .    ,          ,     ,  .   ,           .

      2%  ,    4%,       ,        2%  ,    .               2%    .

      :                .

  ,      :     ,           ,      .

8. :     . :       ,           . : "The stock market lost money in eight of the 14 years in which inflation exceeded 6%; the average return for those 14 years was a measly 2.6%." (       14 ,    6%;     14    2,6%).       :   ,               .         :     ,             .

8.  .  :       . "The first represents a combination of an early study by the Cowles Commission going back to 1870, which has been spliced on to and continued to date in the well-known Standard & Poors composite index of 500 stocks." "      ":            . "        ":     ,            .

7.    . ,        , ,        .      ,       .      ,           .

7.    TIPS (- ).   TIPS              . "TIPS      ,        ,  ".    ,     ,   ,           .      ,        - .

7.   .  : "The full decade figures smooth out the year-to-year fluctuations and leave a general picture of persistent growth."  : "             ."       :   ,              .   ,      :          ,             .

7.    .     ,             . "To people of long experience and innate caution the passage from one extreme to another carried a strong warning of trouble ahead."           .              .      ,        .

7.       .        . "It will supply a sort of connecting tissue that links the various stages of the stock market in the past twenty years and also a taken-from-life picture of the difficulties facing anyone who tries to reach an informed and critical judgment of current market levels."      ,          ,       .      ,         .

8.   .      ,     . "The year 1970 was marked by a definite deterioration in the overall earnings posture of our corporations. The rate of profit on invested capital fell to the lowest percentage since the World War years. Equally striking is the fact that a considerable number of companies reported net losses for the year; many became financially troubled, and for the first time in three decades there were quite a few important bankruptcy proceedings. These facts as much as any others have prompted the statement made above*that the great boom era may have come to an end in 19691970."    ,       ,             .      ,         .

7.  . .     ,         ,    . , . "     ,   .      ,             ."       ?             .   ,      ?     ,               .

8.    . :          ,    ,              . : "Prudence suggests that he have an adequate idea of stock-market history, in terms particularly of the major fluctuations in its price level and of the varying relationships between stock prices as a whole and their earnings and dividends." ( ,          ,                     .) : " ,          ,                     ."       :            .   ,      :     ,          .

8.  .

:      ,   ,      .

: "In sum, we feel compelled to express the conclusion that the present level of stock prices is a dangerous one."

: " ,     ,        ."

      :           .

  ,      :     ,       .

8.  .

:     ,          .

: "The caution we expressed in 1959 was somewhat better justified by the sequel than was our corresponding attitude in 1954."

: ",     1959 ,   ,      1954 ."

      :              .

  ,      :     ,          .

8.    .

:    ,              .

, : "Speaking bluntly, if the 1964 price level is not too high how could we say that any price level is too high" " ,     1964    ,    ,      ".

      :              .

        :     ,          ,           .

7.    .

:    ,           .

Is there anything we and our readers can learn from them? "         - ?"

it is doubtful if they have been as useful as our more pedestrian counsels  ",      ,     "

      :             .

        :     ,     ,      .

7.    .

:     ,           .            .

, : "It is the mark of an educated mind to expect that amount of exactness which the nature of the particular subject admits." "       ,     ."

      :              ,   .

        :      ,         -  .

7.   .        ,     . "The first runs from 1900 to 1924, and shows for the most part a series of rather similar market cycles lasting from three to five years." " ,         ,       ."      ,       ,        .      ,           ,    .

8.   .            . "By the rule of opposites the time was ripe for the beginning of the greatest bull market in our history, presented in the last third of our chart." "            ."      ,          ,        .      ,           ,     .

9.   .        ,     . "This phenomenon may have reached its culmination in December 1968 at 118 for Standard & Poors 425 industrials (and 108 for its 500-stock composite)." " , ,      1968    118  425   Standard & Poor's ( 108   500- )."      ,         ,     .      ,           ,    .

7.    .  ,    ,  ,        . "To us, the early-1971-markets disregard of the harrowing experiences of less than a year before is a disquieting sign. Can such heedlessness go unpunished? We think the investor must be prepared for difficult times aheadperhaps in the form of a fairly quick replay of the 19691970 decline, or perhaps in the form of another bull-market fling, to be followed by a more catastrophic collapse."          .     ,         .

7.      . .             . , . "The reader will note from our table that the ratio of stock returns (earnings/price) to bond returns has grown worse during the entire period, so that the January 1972 figure was less favorable to stocks, by this criterion, than in any of the previous years examined." "      "        ,       . "        "     ,        .

8.   .

:      ,    .

, : "The heart of Grahams argument is that the intelligent investor must never forecast the future exclusively by extrapolating the past." "     ,        ,    ."

      :               .

        :      ,         ,    .

8.   .

:    ,               .

: "Can such heedlessness go unpunished?" (     ?)

: "     ?"

      :                .

        :     ,      ,    .

7.  "     ". :       . "Anyone who claims that the long-term record proves that stocks are guaranteed to outperform bonds or cash is an ignoramus." ",  ,    "",        , ."       :           .         :     ,     .

8.      .  : "The value of any investment is, and always must be, a function of the price you pay for it."  : "        ,     ."       :           ,    ,     .   ,      :     ,          .

8.    .

:         .

, : "By the rule of opposites" "  ".

      :            .

        :     ,          .

7.  "  ". :          . , : "  ". "      ":          . "        ":      ,          .

5.  " ". :      ,     ,  . , : "  ". "      ":            . "        ":      ,             .

8.  .

:    ,   ,    .

   ,    1964    ,       .          ,           -.                .   ,       ,     .  ,  ,      1964 ,   : 1.         . 2.    ,    . 3.    ,   ,      50%   .           ,               . ,          ,          ,      ,    ,      .             1964 ,          ,     .

      :        ,    .

  ,      :     ,        .

8.  "  ,   ". :     ,   ,       . : "Considering how calamitously wrong the experts were the last time they agreed on something, why on earth should the intelligent investor believe them now?" (,     ""  ,     -,       ?) : ",     ""  ,     -,       ?" "      ":           . "        ":      ,           .

8.     .  : "Shiller compares the current price of the Standard & Poors 500-stock index against average corporate profits over the past 10 years (after inflation). By scanning the historical record, Shiller has shown that when his ratio goes well above 20, the market usually delivers poor returns afterward; when it drops well below 10, the market usually delivers good returns afterward."  : "     Standard & Poor's 500       10  ( ).   ,  ,       20,      ;     10,      ."       :                .   ,      :     ,             ,     .

8.5.     .  : "How has the market done in the past when it was priced around todays levels? Figure 3-1 shows the previous periods when stockswere at similar highs, and how they fared over the 10-year stretches that followed".  : "     ,         ,  ?  3-1   ,      ,         10 ".       :   ,              .   ,      :     ,             .

8.       .

:    ,         .        ,         .  , ,           .

: "The rate of return sought should be dependent, rather, on the amount of intelligent effort the investor is willing and able to bring to bear on his task."

: "   , ,    ,         ."

      :              .    ,              .

  ,      :     ,        , ,  ,   .

8.    . :             . : "Under this plan the guiding rule is to maintain as nearly as practicable an equal division between bond and stock holdings." (             ).       :        ,         .         :           ,       ,          .

7.    .   ,          .

Those with larger funds may find other mediums more desirable. ",    ,     ."

           .

     ,           .

8.       .

:          .     25%    75%   ,    75%  25%  .      50-50.

: "According to tradition the sound reason for increasing the percentage in common stocks would be the appearance of the bargain price levels created in a protracted bear market. Conversely, sound procedure would call for reducing the common-stock component below 50% when in the judgment of the investor the market level has become dangerously high."

: " ,          " ",     . ,        50%,         ."

      :          ,       .

        :              ,             .

8.      .  : "The only thing you can be confident of while forecasting future stock returns is that you will probably turn out to be wrong. The only indisputable truth that the past teaches us is that the future will always surprise usalways! And the corollary to that law of financial history is that the markets will most brutally surprise the very people who are most certain that their views about the future are right. Staying humble about your forecasting powers, as Graham did, will keep you from risking too much on a view of the future that may well turn out to be wrong."  : ",            ,  ,  ,  ,  .   ,    ,   ,       !        ,      ,        .      ,    ,          ,    ."       :           ,        .   ,      :      ,             ,      .

8. :   . :    ,        ,        ,       . : "If the division between investment and speculative operations were as clear now as once it was, we might be able to envisage investors as a shrewd, experienced group who sell out to the heedless, hapless speculators at high prices and buy back from them at depressed levels." (           ,  ,       ,  ,               ).       :              .         :     ,        ,         .

7.   .     E         ,          . "There is no other investment that combines (1) absolute assurance of principal and interest payments, (2) the right to demand full money back at any time, and (3) guarantee of at least a 5% interest rate for at least ten years." "      "         ,   ,           . "        "     ,          .

8.       .

:              .        .

: "It is extremely simple; it aims unquestionably in the right direction; it gives the follower the feeling that he is at least making some moves in response to market developments; most important of all, it will restrain him from being drawn more and more heavily into common stocks as the market rises to more and more dangerous heights." (  ;      ;    ,             ;  ,     ,                    .)

      :       ,            .

        :     ,               .

7.   .  ,  ,         .  : ",              ".       :   ,       ,      .   ,      :        ,    .

7.        . .    ,     .     30%,      ,      .     30%,      .

, . "Hence if the investor was in a maximum tax bracket higher than 30% he would have a net saving after taxes by choosing the municipal bonds; the opposite, if his maximum tax was less than 30%." "        30%,       ,   ;  ,       30%,     ".

            ,     ,      .

              ,              .

7.  "  ". .   ,     .

Both obligations have the full faith and credit of the United States government behind them and hence are safe without question. "         ,      ."

            ,       .

              ,          .

7.    .

:    ,             .

, : "The call feature in these bond contracts was a thinly disguised instance of heads I win, tails you lose." "          "  ,   "."

      :              .

        :     ,             .

7.  "     ". :       -  ,        . : " ,       ,      -  ".       :              .   ,      :             .

8.   .  : "bonds at cost price or better has given the purchasers in former years of low interest rates complete protection against the shrinkage in principal value that befell many bond investors".  : "                    ,      ".       :       .   ,      :          .

7.   .  : "A profusion of these issues exists, covering a wide variety of coupon rates and maturity dates".  : "   ,        ".       :    ,        .   ,      :            .

7.  "       ". :         ,    . : "            ,      ,  20  25 ."       :          .   ,      :     ,         .

7.   . .        ,  .   ,          . , . "While, taken as a whole, they may work out somewhat better in terms of overall return than the first-quality issues, they expose the owner to too many individual risks of untoward developments, ranging from disquieting price declines to actual default." ",  ,        ,    ,         ,        ".       :      ,   .         :          .

8.     .

:               .

       , , ,         ,   ,    DJIA       ,       50-50    .

      :                .

        :     ,        ,       .

7.     .

:            :                    .

        ,           .

      :                .

        :     ,      ,          .

7.   .         .           ,     .         " ",       , ,    . .       ,      .      ,    Moody's  Standard & Poor's.          Aaa (AAA), Aa (AA)  A       .         ,     ,        .   1971  ,      Standard & Poor's,    AA,  20    5,78%.    , -,   AA    3%    ,   5,8%    1995  1996 .

      :         ,       .

  ,      :     ,        ,          .

7. :  .

:      ,                ,        .

, : "The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists." "    ,       ."

      :               ,        .

        :     ,          .

8.         .

:        ,    ,     ,    .

, : "   70% ,   ,        35%.  ,    24,50    100         35    100   ."

      :      ,   .

  ,      :     ,           .

8. :        . :            . : "Why should your age determine how much risk you can take?" (    ,      ?) "      ":                   . "        ":      ,      ,           .

8.   .

:       ,       .

: "Everyone must keep some assets in the riskless haven of cash."

: "          ."

      :      ,       .

  ,      :     ,          .

7.       .  ,      ,        ,   ,              . "  ,      ,    ,         ,    25%.  ,             ,    75%".          ,   .      ,     ,    .

8.   .

:      ,       ,       .

: "Graham advises you never to have more than 75% of your total assets in stocks."

: "      75%      ."

      :         ,       .

  ,      :     ,            .

8.    .

:    ,        ,       .

Unless you can honestly pass all these tests, you have no business putting all your money in stocks. Anyone who panicked in the last bear market is going to panic in the next oneand will regret having no cushion of cash and bonds. "       ,          . ,      ,     ,     ,         ."

      :             .

        :     ,           ,      .

7.   .    ,    . "Buying individual bonds makes no sense unless you have at least $100,000 to invest." "     ,       100 000   ."      ,     ,    .      ,      ,      .

7.       . "   ,    ,      ,  .   ,    ,    ,     ".               .     ,          .

8.     .

:    ,    ,         .     ,     ,          ,        .

: "Graham calls the first approach active or enterprising; it takes lots of time and loads of energy. The passive or defensive strategy takes little time or effort but requires an almost ascetic detachment from the alluring hullabaloo of the market."

: "    ""  "";      . ""  ""      ,         ."

      :   ,             .    ,       .

        :     ,         ,       .          ,      ,          .

7.   .  : "You can buy Treasury bills, short-term notes, and long-term bonds directly from the government, with no brokerage fees".  : "    ,           ".       :              .   ,      :             .

8.     .    .

:          .     ,       ,    .  , ,         .

, : "   ,         ,        ,    ,              .              ,       ,           ,     ."

      :       ,      ,   .         ,     .

        :     ,       ,        .          ,       .

7.   .         . "         .        ."       :         ,        .   ,      :        ,      ,       .

7. :  . :    ,         . : "The choices for bond investors have proliferated like rabbits". : "     ,  ".       :         ,         .         :     ,         ,      ,     .

7.      .                ,     ,    ,   ,        ,    . "The likely answer is that the company is not healthy, the market for its bonds is glutted, and you should approach its preferred shares as you would approach an unrefrigerated dead fish."      ,        ,       .      ,    ,    .

8.   .    ,    . "  ,     "  ",  ,          ,    1929 ,      1954 ?"          .     ,            .

8.       .

:     ,        ,           .

: "The few good annuities are bought, not sold; if an annuity produces fat commissions for the seller, chances are it will produce meager results for the buyer."

: "   ,   ;       , ,      ."

      :               .

  ,      :     ,         -     .

7.  "  ". :     ,           . : "Thus they are suitable mainly as set-aside money to meet a future spending needa gift for a religious ceremony thats years away, or a jump start on putting your newborn through Harvard." (     " "          ,     ,         ).       :             ,           .   ,      :     ,     ,               ,            .

8.5.  "    ". :            . : "Obviously stocks of this kind are attractive to buy and to own, provided the price paid is not excessive." (,        ,  ,     ).       :          .         :      ,          .

8. :    .

:    ,           .

: "       1949 ,   ,    20       3,1%,        3,9%."

: "       1949 ,   ,    20       3,1%,        3,9%."

      :   ,            .

        :     ,            .

8.        . :               . : "The first was that they had offered a considerable degree of protection against the erosion of the investors dollar caused by inflation, whereas bonds offered no protection at all. The second advantage of common stocks lay in their higher average return to investors over the years." (   ,         ,  ,         .                 .)       :   ,                  .   ,      :     ,                .

7.   .  :             . "The New York Stock Exchange has put considerable effort into popularizing its monthly purchase plan, under which an investor devotes the same dollar amount each month to buying one or more common stocks." "      ":             . "        ":    ,             .

8.       .   :           .  : "There should be adequate though not excessive diversification. This might mean a minimum of ten different issues and a maximum of about thirty." (  ,    .           .)       :             .   ,      :     ,         .

7.   .

:    ,          ,    .          .

Nearly all brokerage houses are ready to make corresponding suggestions, without special fee, in return for the commission business involved.                .

      :          ,        .

  ,      :     ,          .

8.   .  :           ,    . "       ,         ,   ,        ,   ."       :    ,       .   ,      :                 .

7.              .

:                 .       25       20     12 .

: "But such a restriction would eliminate nearly all the strongest and most popular companies from the portfolio."

: "             ."

      :         ,     .

  ,      :     ,          .

7.      .     ,          . "   ,   "   "     50%        1961-62        1969-70 .          ;      ,   ,      .        Texas Instruments,       5  256,   ,         40   3,91   . ( ,       ,  ;     ).         50%,      ,  49".      ,         ,          .      ,        -   .

7.          .       ,      .

 : "The one thing the widow must not do is to take speculative chances in order to make some extra income. By this we mean trying for profits or high income without the necessary equipment to warrant full confidence in overall success."

 : ",     ,  ,    .             ,       ."

      :               .

  ,      :     ,         -  .

7.          .

: ,         ,     ,       .

: "The fact that he has less time available to give to his investment education and to the administration of his funds."

: ",              ."

      :   ,          .

  ,      :     ,      -           .

8.   .

:    ,       .    ,   ,    .

, : "    ,      ,      ,    ."

      :         .

        :     ,         .

8.  " ". :    ,         ,        -     . , : "           ,      "".    "" -   ,       ,  .    ,        ".       :          ,      .   ,      :      ,         .

8.       .            .         . "There is a great advantage for the young capitalist to begin his financial education and experience early." "      "   ,            ,       . "        "          ,          .

7.         .                     . "Let him study security values and initially test out his judgment on price versus value with the smallest possible sums." "      "             ,    . "        "              ,           .

8.     .     ,      ,    . "       .     ".      ,           - .      ,         .

8.        .

:          ,       ,    ,         .

, : "Viewed logically, the decision of whether to own stocks today has nothing to do with how much money you might have lost by owning them a few years ago." "   ,           ,     ,     ."

      :          ,        .

        :      ,          ,        .

7.  "   ".

:            ,            .

, : "There is no harm in such diversity of opinion and action. In fact, it has a salutary effect upon stock-market conditions, because it permits a gradual differentiation or transition between the categories of primary and secondary stock issues." "       . ,         ,            ."

      :        ,           .

        :       ,            ,       .

7.        .

:            . ,      ,          ,    .

 : "A criterion based on adjectives is always ambiguous. Where is the dividing line for size, for prominence, and for conservatism of financial structure?" (,   ,  .     ,     ?)

: ",   ,  .     ,     ?"

      :          ,        .

  ,      :     ,           ,      .

8.  "  ,   ". :    ,      . : "    ,   ,     ,    ,      ".       :       ,      ,   .   ,      :         ,    ,        .

8.        .       :              .   ,      :    ,     ,         .

7.      . :     ,         . : "A division of her fund about equally between United States bonds and first-grade common stocks is a compromise between these objectives and corresponds to our general prescription for the defensive investor." (                        ).       :     ,        .   ,      :    ,           .

6.   . :        ,      .       :        ,        .   ,      :    ,             .

8.  " ,  ". :     ,      ,     . : "     , ,    ,  ,               -       ,       ,      , ,  ". :      , ,    ,  ,               -       ,       ,      , ,  .       :             .   ,      :     ,          ,     .

8.  " ". :         ,            . , : "The more familiar a stock is, the more likely it is to turn a defensive investor into a lazy one who thinks theres no need to do any homework." "   ,   ,       ,  ,     -    ".       :              ,        .         :     ,         ,         .

7.   .  :  -          .  : "To be sure, a transaction fee of $4 takes a monstrous 8% bite out of a $50 monthly investmentbut if thats all the money you can spare, then these microinvesting sites are the only game in town for building a diversified portfolio."  : ",    $4   8%     $50,     ,    ,          ".       :    -     .   ,      :         -    .

8.   .

:       ,        .

: "Unless you are not willing to spread your bets, you shouldnt bet at all."

: "      ,     ."

      :         ,        .

        :                  ,      ,       .

8.  "      ". :   ,                . , : " ,       ,      ,      ".       :          .         :      ,             ,        .

7.  " ". :  ,       ,     . : "Fortunately, for a defensive investor who is willing to do the required homework for assembling a stock portfolio, this is the Golden Age: Never before in financial history has owning stocks been so cheap and convenient." ( ,   ,         ,   :             .) : " ,   ,         ,   :             ."       :              .   ,      :            ,         .

8.   .             ,      . "  ,        ,    .   ,        .               ,      (     )      ,         (   "")."       ,      .      ,              .

7.   .

:           .

: "Let him leave high-grade preferred stocks to corporate buyers. Let him also avoid inferior types of bonds and preferred stocks unless they can be bought at bargain levels."

: "       .         ,         ."

      :     ,        .

  ,      :     ,    ,      .

7.   .

:          ,    ,         . ,   ,            ,       .

: "But theres one responsibility that you must never delegate. You, and no one but you, must investigate ( before you hand over your money) whether an adviser is trustworthy and charges reasonable fees."

: "   ,      . ,   ,   (    ),          ."

      :               .             .

        :              ,           ,      .




  .


   .

   ,     (https://www.litres.ru/chitat-onlayn/?art=70202971)  .

      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .


