     
 


                ,            .        ,         ,    .    ,        .     ,      .      ,  ,               .





 

     



. 

 . 

  . 

  . 

 . 

  . 



 W.W. Norton & Company, Inc., 2003

    , , .   , 2016



  .      .                        ,         ,           .             5.  (. 49 ),            6  (. 146  ).


* * *


  &  







   


  ,      ,    .   ,        ,     ,     .        .                  .



 ,
 
  -ѻ







  .       ,   .  ࠖ         ,      .  ,    ,       . ,         ,      ,   .        .        ,     .

 1973.     - (A Random Walk Down Wall Street), ,  ,      [1 -    .      , ,            .          ,     .        ,        ,          .       ( 堖 Random Walk)     -. . . .].         ,    500 ,    .  ,    ,     .   ,  ,        :      ,   200 ,     "  -"  ,           ?

, ,  .            ,            ,          ,    .    ࠖ   ,         .     ,      .

     ,        .     ,    ,  ,  ,  ,     .       .    ,    ,   Vanguard Group of Investment Companies.           ,         .

  ,             .              .          .

       ,    ,         .          ,   .    ,  , ,      .

    W.W. Norton  - .        ,                 .       ,     .

  , , ,  ,   .         .  堖     .       ,   .




 

 



        .     ,  :       . ,   ,         ,      .           . ,    .      .         ,    ,   .

 ,       .      ,   [2 -   (shorts)            ,        .    (put option) ,                .  (straddles)                 ,   . . . .],       ,  TIPSs[3 - TIPSs (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities)    ,               ,      (CPI).    TIPS             TreasuryDirect.                           . . . .], ETFs[4 - ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds)   .      ,   (shares),    (unit investment trusts),    (depository receipts).   ,          .   ETFs      .  ETFs       ,        (  ). . . .]  HOLDRs[5 - HOLDRs (Holding Company Depository Receipts)  ,   .        ,          . - HOLDRs    .    ETFs        HOLDRs    .       . . . .].      .            ࠖ , ,      .

      .   ,          .         .   ,           .   ,      ,   .    ,      .    .




 

   


    ,         : ,   ; ,   ,    ; ,  ,   ,      ,   ,  .     ?     ,   :     .

 -      ,    1930- ., ,         .     ,      ,  ,      .        ?   .         ,   .     ,   .

     ,    . ,                 .    ,    ,   ,    .     ,         ,        .     :    ,       ,    .

  ,       (Making the Most of Your Money),  ,     ,      :



 ,    ,  堖   .     ,     .  ,   ,       .    ,       ,   .       ,     .   ,   ,        .  ,      

       ,    -.     ,    ,    ,  .         ,        .



 ,     ,   ,  -  :        ,  .  ,           ,    ,    .    ,      ,      .   ,             ,            .     , ,    ,        ,  .   ,      - ( ,    ),    ,  ,  ,    , .       ࠖ       .

   , ,   ,              .                 ,      .

    ,         ,       .   , ,    ,          .      :     ,  ,    ,   ?      , ,    ,     ,  ? ,        .     ,       .       ,        .     ࠖ          ,       - . ,       ,     .           .    ,    [6 -  .  .        . -, 2002.] (Fooled by Randomness),     CNBC   ,               .

  ,  ,        CD-  50 .,       ,        ,           .   .          ,        ,    ,   -   .           .  95%  堖  .     ,  ,    .      :      ,       .

  2000.  Forbes   :



  , , ,   젖   ,    ,    -  ,      ,     -  1994.  ,   ,       .         [7 -   1983.   .       . . .].


, , Forbes ,      ,             ,     ,     .      ,          .

   ,      ,       .  ,        (Winning the Loser's Game), , ,    ,    ,           .                 ,       .

  - ,      ,   ,    .   ,     ,  -        ,    ,   ,          .       ,    .  ,   ,    ,  ,  .  ,              蠖    .

   ,         ,        .    - ,        :       -.




 

    



, ,   ,       ,   .         ,     .

 .       ,   :

 ;

 ;

;

.

      ,       .

   ,        ,    . ,     III,     ,     .     ,    ,    ,           .  ,         .   ,                  .       .      ,      ,  .         .




 


      ,         ,    . ,    ,         ,      .          ,        ,      ,     . ,    (   )[8 -         ,       .        .          .                        .        .    ,      . . . .],    ,     ,  ,                 ,    ,     ,       .           ,              100 000 .          ,       .           (   250 . ).         .

         ,       .     ( III)  ,       .







     .        .     /    ( ),  ,       (GNMA,   )      (SLMA,   ),  ( ),     ( ).   ,      .       ,        蠖    .

    .          ,        .       1000 .    ()     70 .,      70 .    ,   ,     7%.   , ,  ,           .     8%   1000-       80 . ,  ,  70 .,    ,    .      1000 .  ,   70 . ,   ,   80 . !    70 .        ,       .  :    ,      .     ,   .     ,         1000 .   ,     .      ,     .        1000 .,            .       .

   .       ,  젖  ,  젖  .         ,          . , ,       -    .      ,       .     .             .  ,        ,        .

   .           , ,        .         ( ).       .        ,   WorldCom  Enron  .                  .    ,         .           .

  (      )       ,      .    ,        (    , ).     ,   ,     ,        .




 



     ,   頖  .      , ,   .       ,         .    1000        ,    1/1000-      .     ,   1/1000-  .      ,   ,          ,        .     , ,   ,      [9 -  . ,    ⠖ equity (  , ); security ( , ); insecurity (),   equity securities (  )  equity insecurities. . .],     ,    .

         ,  .   XIX.       8  9%,        56%.   75           10%.      ,   .   2000.   2002.        45%  .   :    .       .     ,       ,   .

,     ,    -   .            堖    ,   ,      (  ).         ,  IBM, Microsoft, Merck  Johnson & Johnson, ,            .           .   ,  ,    ,       .     ,   ,  .        .     ,        ,       .

 ,   ,    .   -,                ,   / (price/earnings ratio  /)[10 -  /  ,         .           /       .          ,        . . . .].     (  ,       )  2 .,       40 .,  ,   /,  /,  20 (40: 2).   ,   eBay,     /Š  50.  ,   General Motors,    젖  10.         ,        .

    ,  ,     .      WorldCom      /   ,       .  ,     .  , -          ,          WorldCom.      .         ,     ,           .




  .


   .

   ,     (https://www.litres.ru/berton-malkiel/desyat-glavnyh-pravil-dlya-nachinauschego-investora/)  .

      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .



notes








1


   .      , ,            .          ,     .        ,        ,          .       ( 堖 Random Walk)     -. . . .




2


  (shorts)            ,        .    (put option) ,                .  (straddles)                 ,   . . . .




3


TIPSs (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities)    ,               ,      (CPI).    TIPS             TreasuryDirect.                           . . . .




4


ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds)   .      ,   (shares),    (unit investment trusts),    (depository receipts).   ,          .   ETFs      .  ETFs       ,        (  ). . . .




5


HOLDRs (Holding Company Depository Receipts)  ,   .        ,          . - HOLDRs    .    ETFs        HOLDRs    .       . . . .




6


 .  .        . -, 2002.




7


  1983.   .       . . .




8


        ,       .        .          .                        .        .    ,      . . . .




9


 . ,    ⠖ equity (  , ); security ( , ); insecurity (),   equity securities (  )  equity insecurities. . .




10


 /  ,         .           /       .          ,        . . . .


